With under a couple of hours to go before the list of nominees are announced for the 86th Academy Awards, here are my late-in-the-day no-guts-no-glory predictions. This precursor season has been quite a chaotic one as compared to the previous years with quite a few major changes and reversals of fortune with regards to films and performances and individuals. Just ask Robert Redford who went from a certain lock to win the Oscar for his one-man act in ALL IS LOST to now having to fight it out for the fifth spot even in the Leading Male category. As late as this week, the Golden Globes did its stunning bit in giving AMERICAN HUSTLE a major boost to its already snow-balling momentum that could take it beyond the critical darling 12 YEARS A SLAVE and pip it to the Oscar post. The Globes were also responsible to make AMERICAN HUSTLE’s Jennifer Lawrence’s case stronger for a second consecutive Oscar at just 23 years of age.
Here then is how I see the Ballot being read out tonight, before we endure a 45-day screening & lobbying season before the Oscars are eventually handed out on the 2nd of March. All nominations are in alphabetical order.
12 YEARS A SLAVE
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
If one were to go with the traditional 5 nominees, the above 5 should make it with NEBRASKA making a very strong bid to get in instead of THE WOLF OF WALL STREET which is just an unpredictable beast this Oscar race given its polarizing reaction.
However, since the Academy has revised its rules to allow anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees based on how many films deserve to be nominated (arrived at on a calculation of no.1 votes and number of votes in the total polling tally), the following films also have a chance to get nominated in the following order-
If they nominate 6 films, then the film that gets in will be
If 7, then
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
And if 10,
SAVING MR. BANKS
The Coen Bros.’ INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS has an outside shot of making it to the final ten, while Woody Allen’s BLUE JASMINE is a long shot.