JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Kambakkht Ishq opens well; signs of slide…

Note all numbers are from Trade Guide

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be one’s I have computed in the past
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

Kambakkht Ishq

Its testament to the star system and a timely release that Kambakkht Ishq has managed to post a sizeable first week haul but the signs are already there in the collections that the film has struggled after a big first weekend. The opening by all accounts was as expected very big, with a wide release and immense pre-release hype. But following a strong first weekend, the weekdays have shown considerable signs of drops.

The Akshay Kumar & Kareena Kapoor all out entertainer, promoted as the “Battle of Sexes” and with a dash of Hollywood presence failed to make any impression with most critics. In fact the film has been fighting a huge amount negativity press since release so in the end the first week numbers have found a middle ground – not too extra-ordinary but considering the media barrage, a credible net gross.

Week 1 Kambakkht Ishq vs Week 1 CCTC
Mumbai 30% means that CCTC is 30% LESS than Kambakkht Ishq in Week 1

Mumbai 30%
Ahmedabad 32%
Baroda 21%
Bharuch -7%
Jamnagar 11%
Pune -354%
Goa 7%
Nasik 72%
Delhi 71%
Lucknow 48%
Faridabad 21%
Gorakhpur 30%
Agra 15%
Gurgaon -432%
Indore 86%
Nagpur 69%
Raipur 25%
Ujjain 11%
Sehore 26%
Kolkatta 25%
Burdwan 19%
Jaipur 45%
Bangalore -7%
Chennai -1%
Vijayawada -38%

CCTC leads in 6 centres
KI leads in 19 centres

The cumulative centre total for the above centres for KI = 10.72Cr (Pune, Delhi, Gurgaon)
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for CCTC = 7.26Cr (Pune, Delhi, Gurgaon)

This means that KI is 148% of CCTC’s total (10.72/7.26 = 148%)

Using my own CCTC Week 1 total of 22.75Cr (midpoint), KI’s Week 1 = 146% * (22.75) = 33.6Cr

A similar exercise with OSO, RNBDJ & Raaz – TMC yields the following outputs;
OSO ~ 32.4Cr (using my OSO figure of 36.0Cr)
RNBDJ ~ 34.0Cr (using my RNBDJ figure of 40.0Cr)
Raaz – TMC ~ 33.8Cr (using my Raaz – TMC figure of 18.5Cr)

Kambakkht Ishq 1 Week Total = 32.5-34.0Cr(Week 1) = 32.5-34.0Cr

Verdict – Good Opening Week though alarming signs of slide

Kambakkht Ishq’s first week is pretty much in the ballpark of films like Dhoom 2, Welcome and Race. It’s considerably shy of Golmaal Returns (8 day total), Om Shanti Om, Singh is Kinng, Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi & Ghajini. Almost certainly the film is struggling at the box office from after the first weekend – the film’s opening was on a par with Singh is Kinng and Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi from most reports, but has fallen short of these totals.

The negative press is certainly a factor, but overall the weak word of mouth is the biggest contributor. The first week haul ensures that the film won’t flop but the film will need to at least post a decent second week total to have a chance of being classified as an average plus film. A finishing total of between 50-55Cr is the most likely.

Past Releases

New York

Despite the huge release of Kambakkht Ishq, New York managed to post a decent second week – clearly suggesting the film has found a considerable audience and is a success.

New York Week 2 vs New York Week 1
66% Mumbai means New York fell by 66% in Mumbai in Week 2

Mumbai 66%
Ahmedabad 65%
Gandhinagar 69%
Himmatnagar -389%
Jamnagar 59%
Rajkot 53%
Baroda -287%
Bharuch 77%
Pune 62%
Goa 72%
Nasik 67%
Gurgaon 92%
Faridabad 78%
Gorakhpur 54%
Delhi 98%
Lucknow 78%
Indore 78%
Raipur 63%
Nagpur 69%
Ujjain 73%
Sehore 63%
Jaipur 74%
Ajmer 63%
Kota 62%
Guwahati 52%
Kolkatta 82%
Burdwan 57%
Hyderabad 64%
Bangalore 26%
Chennai 42%
Vijayawada 64%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 66%
Most centres have seen considerable drops but this was expected as Kambakkht Ishq took the lion’s share of screens and attention. The trend is consistent across India with most centres falling between 50-75%. Chennai and Bangalore held up best, the North of India less so.

The New York Week 1 total for the above centres = 9.23Cr (ignoring Himmatnager, Baroda, Gurgaon, Delhi, Kolkatta)
The New York Week 2 total for the above centres = 3.15Cr (ignoring Himmatnager, Baroda, Gurgaon, Delhi, Kolkatta)

This means that New York’s Week 2 total is 34% of New York’s Week 1 total (3.15/9.23 = 34%)

Using my own New York Week 1 Total of 26.0-27.0Cr, New York’s Week 2 Total = 34% * (26.0-27.0) = 8.9-9.2Cr

New York 2 Week Total = 26.0-27.0Cr(Week 1) + 8.9-9.2Cr(Week 2) = 34.9 – 36.2Cr

Verdict – Above Average with the promise of more

New York was as stable as one could have expected it to be but the coming weeks should see the film accumulate a total in excess of 45Cr which would qualify the film as the first biggie of the year to be a “proper” hit.

January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)

February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)

March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)

April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)

June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 34.9 – 36.2Cr (Above Average)

July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 32.5 – 34.0Cr (Good Opening Week)