JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Luck disappoints…

Note all numbers are from Trade Guide

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be one’s I have computed in the past
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

Luck

Luck had an uncanny resemblance to Kidnap both in genre (action thriller), build up and pitting Sanjay Dutt against Imran Khan. And there was every chance the fate of Luck would follow a similar line to Kidnap especially since the release of the films is less than a year apart. It goes without saying the box office performance of the first week is in the same bucket too – a lot of pre-release hype but in the end fairly disappointing response and collections.

There was very little chance for Luck after the opening did not match the expectations. Despite a decent opening in smaller centres, the big centres like Mumbai and Delhi failed to amass sizeable returns and once the word was out that the film disappointed the hope for recoveries were dashed. Now after the humungous start Love Aaj Kal has taken, Luck is destined to be a flop.

Week 1 Luck vs Week 1 Kidnap
Mumbai -26% means that Kidnap is 26% MORE than Luck in Week 1

Mumbai -26%
Goa -35%
Pune -106%
Nasik 7%
Sangli -11%
Kolhapur 9%
Malegaon 56%
Ichalkaranji 16%
Ahmednagar 0%
Ghulewadi 3%
Akluj 29%
Baramati 20%
Miraj -30%
Shrirampur 44%
Kopargaon 36%
Rahuri 36%
Narayangaon 33%
Manchar 18%
Umbraj 23%
Vita 24%
Nandgaon 43%
Sinnar 43%
Palus 23%
Barsi 47%
Phaltan 24%
Islampur 32%
Ahmedabad -25%
Anand -774%
Surat -22%
Bharuch -38%
Baroda 2%
Vapi 8%
Valsad 4%
Mehsana -50%
Nadiad -16%
Navsari -97%
Himmatnagar -17%
Navsari 7%
Ankleshwar 7%
Nadiad -177%
Rajkot 23%
Gandhidham 39%
Jamnagar 13%
Bhavnagar 31%
Junagadh -4%
Hubli 25%
Delhi 1%
Ghaziabad 0%
Noida -5%
Agra 25%
Gorakhpur 21%
Kanpur 18%
Lucknow -9%
Meerut -22%
Aligarh 30%
Allahabad 0%
Dehradun 3%
Moradabad -433%
Muzaffaranagar -1%
Bareilly -336%
Saharanpur 16%
Moradabad -38%
Varanasi -213%
Indore -37%
Nagpur -156%
Raipur -278%
Ujjain 50%
Bareilly -24%
Jaipur -216%

Kidnap leads in 28 centres
Luck leads in 41 centres

The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Kidnap = 8.56Cr (Pune, Ahmedabad, Anand & Jaipur)
The cumulative centre total for the above centres for Luck = 7.51Cr (Pune, Ahmedabad, Anand & Jaipur)

This means that Luck is 88% of Kidnap’s total (7.51/8.56 = 88%)

Using my own Kidnap Week 1 total of 19.0Cr (midpoint), Luck’s Week 1 = 88% * (19.0) = 16.7Cr

A similar exercise with Kismat Knnection & Raaz – TMC yields the following outputs;
Kismat Konnection ~ 17.3Cr (using my KK figure of 19.5Cr)
Raaz – TMC ~ 16.9Cr (using my Raaz – TMC figure of 18.5Cr)

Luck 1 Week Total = 16.5-17.5Cr(Week 1) = 16.5-17.5Cr

Verdict – Disappointing Opening Week

Luck’s opening week collections have disappointed tremendously especially in multiplexes of major cities. Considering the film came with big hype and hopes, the opening was not up to par and the film should expect to take a fall in excess of 80% in the second week and the verdict will likely follow to be a flop next week.

Past Releases

Kambakkht Ishq

Kambakkht Ishq fell by around 60% in its fourth week to net close to 1Cr. With an additional close to 1Cr added to the third week tally too, Kambakkht Ishq’s total collections now stand at a disappointing 43.6-45.6Cr overall from India.

New York

New York too added close to 1Cr in its fifth week after falling by 55%. With total collections of around 42.3-44.1Cr – New York is a hit.

January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)

February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)

March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)

April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)

June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 42.3 – 44.1Cr (Hit)

July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 43.6 – 45.6Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 7.0 – 7.6Cr (Flop)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Jashnn : 1.8 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Luck : 16.5 – 17.5Cr (Poor Opening Week)