JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Sikander/Shadow woeful; Kaminey falls

New Releases

Sikander & Shadow

Last week’s new releases both had an extremely poor showing at the box office. Sikander collected around 40-50 lakhs and was accompanied with mixed reviews. Shadow accumulated a similar total; both films lacked publicity and were relying heavily on post release word of mouth. With a lot of new releases this week, both Sikander and Shadow stand little chance of a boost in collections in week two.

Past Releases

Kaminey

Kaminey fell surprisingly in the second week of its run despite the film opening in Pune on Monday and having a full week of collections from Mumbai.

Kaminey Week 2 vs. Kaminey Week 1
19% Mumbai means Kaminey fell by 19% in Mumbai in Week 2

Mumbai 19%
Nasik 70%
Kolhapur 76%
Satara 95%
Nagar 85%
Goa 62%
Loni -133%
Ahmedabad 60%
Gandhinagar 84%
Baroda 74%
Anand 80%
Bharuch 57%
Surat -25%
Vapi 93%
Himmatnagar 82%
Palanpur 86%
Bhopal -2234%
Bardoli 95%
Jamnagar 73%
Rajkot 86%
Gandhidham 65%
Adipur 86%
Bhuj 76%
Belgaum 69%
Hubli 74%
Jaipur 77%
Ajmer 80%
Kota 63%
Jodhpur 70%
Bikaner 86%
Shriganganagar 67%
Alwar 69%
Udaipur 64%
Delhi 24%
Noida 63%
Ghaziabad -49%
Agra 59%
Allahabad 68%
Kanpur 55%
Lucknow 67%
Meerut 77%
Moradabad 71%
Varanasi 72%
Gorakhpur 74%
Rampur 87%
Dehradun 63%
Aligarh 74%
Ruderpur 92%
Saharanpur 96%
Shamli 77%
Varanasi -6%
Moradabad -67%
Mathura 66%
Lakhimpur 74%
Haldwani 87%
Hardwar 77%
Jhansi 72%
Bareilly 60%
Dadri 86%
Etah -30%
Chandigarh 59%
Faridabad 73%
Gurgaon 67%
Ludhiana 76%
Panchkula 83%
Ambala 67%
Hissar 58%
Jalandhar 57%
Rohtak 87%
Pathankot 62%
Amritsar 53%
Ambala -46%
Hyderabad 67%
Nagpur 81%
Raipur 87%
Amravati 83%
Jalgaon 90%
Khandwa 78%
Chandrapur 77%
Durg 77%
Wardha 74%
Bhilai 78%
Yavatmal 79%
Sagar 58%
Guwahati 62%
Tinsukhia 73%
Aurangabad -1261%
Kolkatta 59%
Burdwan 83%
Darjeeling 73%
Latur 70%
Aurangabad 77%
Jalna 81%
Parbhani 80%
Chennai 54%
Coimbatore 81%
Vellore 94%
Bangalore 67%
Mangalore 74%
Mysore 65%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 61%
The drop is Mumbai was low because Kaminey released for only four days in the first week. Otherwise, Kaminey has seen a major drop across many big cities where it was expected to hold up such as Ahmedebad, Hyderabad, Kolkatta and Bangalore. Very few centres fell by less than 50%.

Kaminey Week 1 total for the above centres = 13.53Cr (ignoring Mumbai)
Kaminey Week 2 total for the above centres = 5.27Cr (ignoring Mumbai)

This means that Kaminey’s Week 2 total is 39% of Kaminey’s Week 1 total (5.27/13.53 = 39%)

Using Kaminey’s Week 1 Total of 24.5-25.5Cr, Kaminey’s Week 2 Total = 39% * (24.5-25.5) = 10.0-10.4Cr (incl. 47 Lakhs for Pune)

Kaminey 2 Week Total = 24.5-25.5Cr(Week 1) + 10.0-10.4Cr(Week 2) = 34.5 – 35.9Cr

Verdict – Average +

Kaminey’s second week is below the mark considering the film opened to its run in Pune and Mumbai – collections saw a boost from this however the rest of India saw a large drop in collections. The Shahid Kapoor and Priyanka Chopra starrer has lost business up to the tune of 4-5Cr due to the swine flu outbreak in Maharashtra but despite a good opening week the indications are a mixed response from audiences.

Kaminey emerges more a success than a failure at the box office but a potential missed opportunity for a really significant grosser for this genre. The dark theme has deterred a section of the audience so a potential total of around 45Cr would be a decent but not spectacular result.

Life Partner

The Govinda, Tusshar Kapoor and Fardeen Khan comedy starrer was steady as compared to Kaminey with a drop of around 45% in India. Second week collections of 5.3-5.9Cr means Life Partner has total two week collections of 15.4-17.0Cr and is well on target to break 20Cr in the coming weeks. The verdict for the film is average with a decent response from audiences.

Love Aaj Kal

With Kaminey and Life Partner dominating the box office, Saif Ali Khan and Deepika Padukone starrer Love Aaj Kal is scrubbing up whatever is left. In the fourth week of its run, the Imtiaz Ali directed rom-com collected 1.4-1.5Cr to take its total collections to 63.4-65.7Cr from India. Love Aaj Kal is the year’s biggest grosser and a hit overall.

January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)

February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)

March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)

April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)

June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 42.5 – 44.4Cr (Hit)

July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 43.8 – 45.9Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 7.0 – 7.6Cr (Flop)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Jashnn : 1.8 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Luck : 21.5 – 22.8Cr (Flop)
Love Aaj Kal : 63.4 – 65.7Cr (Hit)

August 2009
Agyaat : 5.1 – 5.4Cr (Flop)
Teree Sang : 1.7 – 1.9Cr (Flop)
Life Partner : 15.4 – 17.0Cr (Average)
Kaminey : 34.5 – 35.9Cr (Above Average)
Shadow : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Poor Opening)
Sikander : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Poor Opening)

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22 Responses to “JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Sikander/Shadow woeful; Kaminey falls”

  1. mksrooney Says:

    dissppointed for kaminey but as u said it was tough for a dark theme movie and its achievement has to be appreciated given the effect of swine flu.

    Like

  2. mksrooney Says:

    my predictions-

    3-0 to totenham hotspurs.

    on our derby

    1-3 asenal to win (Ashravin to score )

    (my heart says 2-1 utd win 🙂 )

    Like

  3. Thanks Jay.. I’m not surprised with Kaminey’s week 2.. I think there were hints of this in the week 1 numbers. I see it has had the most remarkable fall in Bhopal in history!

    Like

  4. I’m still confused as to the BO ratings of these movies. Using the big movies as examples, could someone please explain to me the following:

    According to BOI, KI costs 50-55 cr and makes on the high side 45 cr so is shown here as below average. Then D6 makes about 35 cr and cost around 40 cr but is a flop. How is that derived?

    Kaminey cost 42 cr and makes 36 so far and is classified as above average.

    What am I missing?

    Like

  5. mksrooney Says:

    jay – congrats… last minute winner…. lenon unbelievable

    Like

  6. Tyler,
    What exactly is the cost? What it cost to make? What the global rights including domestic and international BO , Music, satellite etc ? What were domestic BO rights were sold for?
    The domestic BO numbers should be judged strictly agaonst the domestic distributor price and costs of print publicity, theatrical rental/share etc.

    Like

    • well rajen, you are right in a way, but as far as I have been following jay’s series for the last 3 years or so, his take on ratings is different and I think it is most probably the best one around. I believe him more than anyone else of the trade pundits who are based in india and do it for commercial reasons. jay doesnt look at most of what you have mentioned in deciding the verdict. it is the hype, type of movie, type of release that he uses to give his verdict on opening and then the trending thoery for the rest of the weeks. for love aaj kal, he has given a long and justified opinion on why he called it a hit in second week itself despite big drop which is against his trending theory.
      the fun here is u cant follow a single theory here always to give verdicts. sometimes i think u should not give a verdict atall like boxofficemojo and just give their budget and its overall collections no. of week running plus fall since last week, which gives all the information that one wants and lets u make your own assessment.but the problem is no one knows these exact figures in india.
      tyler, if u look at above calculations and look at each movie collection then u will know what jay means by his verdicts. also better if u can look for the specific posts during those movie releases he gives a detailed description on why he gives those specific verdicts.

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      • I really see it hard for any trade pundit to base verdicts on cost of whatever. For every film release there is about 3-4 different takes on what the costs are for a start. Second to this, if there is any type of info on budgets and costs it is really only for big films. The smaller ones hardly getting any exposure in this sense.

        On Kaminey vs. Kambakht Ishq vs. D6 – well my verdicts are above average, below average and Flop respectively. A site that hands out verdicts based on cost has Semi Hit, Above Average and Flop (boxofficeindia) respectively.

        Now I don’t think Kambakht Ishq can qualify as any kind of success based on any kind of structured verdict system. Too much cost to call it above average – I mean this is not me saying I believe any one source about the cost/budget here, but collectively it is clear this was a costly film. How on earth it can be anything above average is beyond me. A good opening followed by pretty poor trending I have given it a below average. It could easily be a flop too by me but I have suggested in previous posts that the opening was decent enough to say it is not a complete flop.

        On D6 – again this was a pretty big film. Not bigger then KI but this was Mehra after RDB with a superb soundtrack. The film opened around 23Cr-24Cr which is par the course but ended around 35Cr. It was not as costly as KI but pretty much had a similar trending. Both these films can either be concluded as flops or below average. Hardly makes a difference either way really. So I have gone with flop for D6 – Sarkar Raaj which had similar opening and trending I went with Below Average…mainly because SR has a slightly darker theme whereas I felt D6 was more audience friendly and the Mehra/Rahman factor was hard to ignore so it should have done more business.

        On Kaminey – well its done better than D6 already. Bigger first week (and I think both films can be pitched at similar levels – both directors have good reputations, the films two lead stars are not too different as stars in terms of popularity IMO, popularity of music pre-release) with a much more darker theme and genre. The second week is already stronger than D6 and KI though aided by Pune and Mumbai. In the end, if Kaminey had exactly the same deal as KI and D6 – i.e. a full release, it would probably have made 50Cr overall – more than both movies. So Kaminey is average + overall but no chance of more unless it trends stupendously well from here on in.

        On LAK – it is pretty hard to ignore 65Cr overall especially when the first week has a holiday, the second/third/fourth week all suffer from swine flu a bit, the third week has Kaminey/Life Partner release etc. Its done basically what Race did – its not a hit on trending like say JA was, but its a hit on gross and opening.

        In any case – hardly ever suggested my verdicts are the be all and end all. I’m sure there is plenty of counter arguments, but I would say a site like BOI has more dumbfoundedness and internal inconsistency when say they call SR/D6 Flop and KI Above Average BASED ON DISTRIBUTION COST THEORY. Here the logic is completely wrong because KI is far more costly, only makes 10Cr odd more yet has a far more favourable verdict. So if a site which uses cost/budget can’t get it right, why bother using the cost in the firstplace.

        Like

  7. mksrooney Says:

    well i never knew Jay can compete in writing essays with satyam 😉

    between above comment quite educative by Jay on bo of all the above films coulnt agree more. Especially even liked ur reasoning for Sr and d6

    Like

  8. completely off topic, but regarding boxoffice hence including here. magadheera the telugu movie making waves allover AP, karnataka (not in TN as they have not released here, planning to do a remake/dubbed version with slight changes) and rest of the world where telugu people have a presence, has crossed the pokiri collections(biggest so far- approximately 45cr. net in AP) in just 4 weeks. including overseas and rest of India it crossed pokiri last week itself. this is expected to do a total of 65crore+ in its total run just in AP. very remarkable for a film which has an audience base of around 80 million. this is very close to LAK which is the biggest grosser so far in the country.

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  9. Thanks Jay, great work!

    I think Kaminey’s trajectory illustrates the limits (size-wise) of the market for “non-family fare” where the Hindi film audience is concerned…

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  10. BoC calling it at 33 crores for Kaminey:

    MUMBAI: This Friday’s release like Daddy Cool, Kissan, Toss and Quickgun Murugun have not done any good to boost up the box office collections. Out of all these films, Fox Star Studios’ Quick Gun Murugun, which released across 400 screens in English, Hindi and Tamil, has opened better than all the other movies this weekend.

    Quick Gun Murugun has done a net business of approximately Rs 23 million (Rs 2.3 crore) on a total of 187 prints. The movie saw a growth of 75 per cent on Saturday and an additional 25 per cent on Sunday across all centers with the weekend evening shows going houseful in major multiplexes in Mumbai and Delhi as per Fox Star Studios. Additionally, Fox is also planning to release the film in Telugu in Andhra Pradesh on 17 September.

    On the other hand, previous releases like UTV Motion Pictures’ Kaminey and Studio 18’s Life Partner are still holding fort at the box office. In its two week run, Life Partner has done a net business of Rs 176 million (Rs 17.6 crore) till date, whereas Kaminey’s net collections for 10 days stand at Rs 330 million (Rs 33 crore) in India.

    While Quick Gun Murugun has taken an average opening, Fox Star Studios India CEO Vijay Singh is optimistic nonetheless. He says, “I am happy that the movie has gained critical acclaim and is also connecting with audiences. For a concept film, our performance is in tune with our strategy. We hope that the movie will build on word of mouth over the coming weeks with no big releases slated for next three weeks.”

    Speaking to Businessofcinema.com, Fame India AVP programming, distribution and corporate sales Aditya Shroff says, “All the films that have recently released have done very average business while Kaminey and Life Partner are still doing more business than all these films. Among the recent lot only Ouickgun Murugun has done average while the rest have fared very badly.”

    Fun Cinema COO Vishal Kapur adds, “Quickgun Murugun has done about 20 – 25 per cent business while the rest have been as bad as 10 – 15 per cent. Kaminey and Life Partner have been drawing audiences even in the fourth week and have have seen occupancy levels of approximately 40 per cent each.”

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