JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Acid Factory Is A Disaster; Wake Up Sid Emerges A Success…
New Releases
Acid Factory
White Feather Films’ Acid Factory endured a horrible first week performance. The opening days were very lowin occupanices, with expectations of a slightly better performance blown away by poor audience and critical response. The thriller directed by Suparn Verma and produced by Sanjay Gupta stars Fardeen Khan and Irfan Khan but only managed to collect 2.8-3.0Cr in the duration of the first week. With heavy Diwali competition, the second week is expected to be a wash-out.
Past Releases
Wake Up Sid
UTV Motion Pictures and Dharma Productions’ Wake Up Sid had a rock steady second week at the box office.
Week 1 Wake Up Sid [WUS] vs Week 2 Wake Up Sid [WUS]
44% Mumbai means WUS fell by 61% in Mumbai in Week 2
Mumbai 44%
Ahmedabad 34%
Baroda -187%
Surat -136%
Bharuch 37%
Gandhinagar 99%
Palanpur 54%
Anand 51%
Raipur -63%
Valsad 43%
Bardoli 76%
Navsari 13%
Rajkot 43%
Jamnagar 42%
Gandhidham 50%
Bhavnagar 52%
Pune 41%
Nasik 25%
Sholapur 53%
Kolhapur 47%
Goa -16%
Delhi 37%
Ghaziabad 57%
Agra 40%
Kanpur 35%
Lucknow 35%
Meerut 51%
Moradabad 22%
Faridabad 70%
Gurgaon 97%
Chandigarh 97%
Gorakhpur 24%
Varanasi 54%
Dehradun 34%
Saharanpur 52%
Allahabad 91%
Pathankot 59%
Hubli 98%
Indore 55%
Gwalior 48%
Bhopal 24%
Nagpur 41%
Raipur 44%
Amravati 59%
Chandrapur 57%
Jalgaon 26%
Ajmer 80%
Kolkatta 30%
Darjeeling 48%
Gangtok 49%
Jaipur 24%
Ajmer -4%
Kota -25%
Jodhpur -93%
Patna -32%
Tinsukhia 55%
Hyderabad 28%
Latur 28%
Aurangabad 38%
Secunderabad 53%
Bangalore 48%
Mangalore 54%
Mysore 65%
Ernakulam 27%
Chennai 48%
Coimbatore -593%
Trending
Week 2 drop = 43%
Wake Up Sid is super strong in major cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Pune. Most other centres are holding well too.
WUS Week 1 total for the above centres = 11.37Cr (ignoring 11 centres)
WUS Week 2 total for the above centres = 6.53Cr (ignoring 11 centres)
This means that WUS’s Week 2 total is 57% of WUS’s Week 1 total (6.53/11.37 = 57%)
Using WUS’s Week 1 Total of 15.5-16.0Cr, WUS’s Week 2 Total = 57% * (15.5-16.0) = 8.9-9.2Cr
Wake Up Sid 2 Week Total = 15.5-16.0Cr(Week 1) + 8.9-9.2Cr(Week 2) = 24.4 – 25.2Cr
Verdict – Above Average
With a decent to good first week followed up by a rock steady week, Wake Up Sid is definitely a plus film and if the film can head towards the 30Cr in the next couple of weeks it will be a semi-hit. The film is mainly a multiplex centric success as expected and will be hit severely this week by the Diwali releases – but the second week trend suggests the film could arrive back in the fourth week to hold steady.
After Bachna Ae Haseeno, Ranbir Kapoor has followed up with another plus film but the extent of the success remains to be seen in the coming weeks.
Do Knot Disturb
Unlike Wake Up Sid, Do Knot Disturb did not manage good second week collections. Falling by well over 70%, the comedy collected only 3.7-4.0Cr to take two week collections to 16.7-18.0Cr. The film starring Ritesh Deshmukh, Susmita Sen and Lara Dutta is a flop.
Wanted
Wanted fought back in the fourth week with steady collections. An industry average fall of around 50% gives the action entertainer another 2.8-3.0Cr taking the four week total to an excellent 55.8-58.9Cr. The film starring Salman Khan and Ayesha Takia is thus far the year’s biggest hit.
January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)
February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)
March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)
May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)
June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 42.5 – 44.4Cr (Hit)
July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 43.8 – 45.9Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 7.0 – 7.6Cr (Flop)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Jashnn : 1.8 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Luck : 21.5 – 22.8Cr (Flop)
Love Aaj Kal : 63.6 – 66.0Cr (Hit)
August 2009
Agyaat : 5.1 – 5.4Cr (Flop)
Teree Sang : 1.7 – 1.9Cr (Flop)
Life Partner : 21.6 – 23.8Cr (Above Average)
Kaminey : 42.9 – 44.7Cr (Above Average)
Shadow : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Sikander : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Daddy Cool : 3.6 – 3.9Cr (Flop)
Kissan : 1.2 – 1.4Cr (Flop)
September 2009
Fox : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Aagey Se Right : 2.9 – 3.1Cr (Flop)
Three : 0.7 – 0.8Cr (Flop)
Vada Raha : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Baabarr : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Wanted : 55.8 – 58.9Cr (Hit)
Dil Bole Hadippa! : 20.0 – 22.5Cr (Flop)
What’s Your Raashee? : 13.2 – 15.3Cr (Flop)
October 2009
Wake Up Sid : 24.4 – 25.2Cr (Above Average)
Do Knot Disturb : 16.7 – 18.0Cr (Flop)
Acid Factory : 2.8 – 3.0Cr (Disastrous Opening Week)
SATYAMSHOT 
October 17, 2009 at 8:50 AM
The number on Acid Factory is stunning!
WUS might have done 35 crores or so without these three releases this week. Still could if it remains steady as you suggested.
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October 17, 2009 at 8:58 AM
3 crores for Acid Factory? Wow!
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October 17, 2009 at 8:51 AM
10 crore on day 1 for Blue according to Taran:
http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/special_features/index.html
Of course he’s also the only reviewer who found the film extraordinary. LOL!
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October 17, 2009 at 8:59 AM
I don’t buy this number at all. Ghajini on its best day would have done around 12Cr. I can’t see Blue being anywhere in this range.
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October 17, 2009 at 10:02 AM
agreed..
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October 17, 2009 at 10:57 AM
I highly concur. I don’t buy for one minute that Blue has done 10 crore on day one. That movie is nowhere near in the league of Ghajini. Taran did the same kind of shady reporting for KI and acted like that movie was the biggest of the biggest thereby outdoing Ghajini as well which was inaccurate. And we all know how that turned out in the end. The trade pundits over hype or under hype based on agendas. Taran is cooking the books and over hyping per usual. This is why its so difficult to believe anything the trade pundits in India say (good or bad) about a movie’s box office because its always inaccurate, unreliable, and based on their agendas.
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October 17, 2009 at 8:52 AM
some of the other updates on the new releases from BOI and IBOS and BoC in this thread from last week:
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October 17, 2009 at 9:46 AM
Hi All.. Wish you a very-very happy and prosperous Diwali .. 🙂
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October 17, 2009 at 9:47 AM
satyam some updates here too … 🙂
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/
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October 17, 2009 at 10:01 AM
thanks..
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October 17, 2009 at 11:15 AM
Thanks for the link. I think we all knew that Blue would jump out of the gate with best collections out of the 3 movies releasing. I think your assessment about Blue’s 1st day is more logical and practical than Taran’s over hyping. I’m a bit surprised that all of the movies did not fare as well on Saturday(unless the bad reviews and word of mouth has caught up).
ATB is a comedy and has fared the best in reviews thus far. So I’m really surprised that ATB did not fare as well as expected thus far. Those seem to be vastly low numbers. If those are indeed true then the movie is on the skids. I’m not surprised about MAMK not doing as well as the other 2 movies. But still those are some vastly low numbers which if true then it does mean the movie is on the skids.
All of these 3 movies have big budgets with Blue being the most expensive by far which means all of these movies will have to perform vastly well and remain steady to become hits. I’m wondering if any of them will be able to do so? This is why I feel that all 3 movies premiering on the same day for Diwali was a big mistake. This Diwali looks like there can be a scenario where 2 or all 3 movies either flop or vastly under perform. It does not look promising. Has this ever happened? However I suppose its always best to wait and see how they fare in coming days and weeks before making judgments.
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October 17, 2009 at 10:58 AM
Forgot to say thanks to jayshah for his weekly reports. 🙂
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October 17, 2009 at 11:03 AM
Thank you Jay, so WUS is a hit, right?
I don’t think there is much excitement for any of the films released this week. All The Best might sustain a bit, and Blue will be below average or average in the longer run. MAMK will tank. This year has been truly disastrous, isn’t it? Afer WUS, Ranbir might just get lucky with Ajab Prem… and Rocket Singh looks good too. It will be his year if the other two do very well too.
Then there’s 3 idiots of course, will should do very well. But barring this, it’s been a dreary year.
Which are the releases next week?
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October 17, 2009 at 11:07 AM
I have WUS as above average for now. It could get higher if it manages to do well still [ I don’t expect super trending obviously, but minimal should be expected]. So if it gets to 30Cr [which is not a huge ask] its a semi-hit.
Not much this Friday. But Friday after is London Dreams & Aladdin.
The 3 Diwali releases I am sure will all be below average or flops.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:08 AM
I’m debating on the semi-hit tag Jay.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:16 AM
there are two ways of looking at it. If WUS is taken as a multiplex release comparable to CDI or TZP then doing 30 crores or even 35 crores and being exactly in Rock On territory isn’t particularly creditable. Sure Ranbir isn’t SRK or Aamir but presumably he isn’t Farhan Akhtar either. The film would be lucky to get to the D6 total! On the other hand if one downgrades Ranbir considerably then obviously the trending here is very good. But I think doing the latter might be a bit disingenuous. BAH should have done more than it did and WUS should have opened bigger too. Of course even the fact that I’m saying this means that I’m buying into the media narrative. Stars need time to develop a base with the audience unless they’re instant sensations like Hrithik which clearly Ranbir wasn’t. But I think there’s something more here also. I’ve always had the sense that Imran Khan ‘connected’ right away the way Ranbir couldn’t. Of course Imran has then had his own indifferent releases in Kidnap and Luck but I think that he might have done better in WUS. This is not to say that Ranbir isn’t a better actor but that’s another matter.
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October 17, 2009 at 2:05 PM
You are so hillarious satyam.This blog is entertaining and one wouldn’t want to miss out on your gems.
Particularly this one – I’ve always had the sense that Imran Khan ‘connected’ right away the way Ranbir couldn’t.
Do you want to see how much Ranbir could do in a kidnap?
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October 17, 2009 at 2:50 PM
I’m seeing it already with WUS! Why didn’t he get a much bigger opening here with super reviews and so forth?
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October 17, 2009 at 4:23 PM
Satyam,
Films like WUS have a niche market and its success lies in the fact that majority of that potential market has lapped the film up and what is more, I think has appealed to asome folks who one would not neccessarily consider a part of that market and he has also possibly expnaded the base of that niche segement a bit here.
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October 17, 2009 at 5:09 PM
I would agree and disagree with that Rajen. If you’re saying Ranbir’s market coincides exactly with that of Farhan Akhtar’s (Rock On) I’ll agree. But if he is to be considered a more important star this film could have done more. Also this is a Gen X film which is normally quite big in the multiplexes. The smaller print count never disadvantages films that depend on multiplexes. If SRK starred in Rock On I would expect the film to do a lot more. Not as much as a regular commercial film of course. Similarly for WUS I think 40 crores would have been reasonable to expect if not more. It could have pulled in an 18-20 crore initial. But Jay and myself (and probably you!) are classic examples of why it didn’t. we needed a bigger star to go in for this one! As it turns out the people who went in for the kind of film it was probably would have accepted a number of stars in that genre. So even Farhan Akhtar turns out to be ok! In a BAH though the latter couldn’t survive. Hence when Ranbir does the WUS kind of film he actually limits himself without there being an obvious payoff in terms of the role or kind of film. Had he done Dev D and come up even something less than WUS in terms of the box office he would have emerged a greater winner. I would finally say that the multiplex market for the DCH sort of deal isn’t just niche.
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October 17, 2009 at 2:22 PM
Satyam..
A lot of credit for JTYJN’s success shd go to Aamir. He brought a lot of visibility to the project and so I think Imran should not be getting too much credit. Again, I expect Delhi Belly to open well but if I mran is on his own like in Kidnap or Luck he has no takers.
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October 17, 2009 at 2:53 PM
absolutely Prasad.. but JTYJN had superb trending which means it was liked very much and Imran certainly became a heartthrob with the film. As for Kidnap and Luck he should never have signed those. If you’re a chocolate hero why are you doing those sorts or action thrillers?!
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October 17, 2009 at 11:05 AM
I think WUS deserves the hit tag if it crosses 30. It’s already at 25. How much went into its making and what price was it sold at? Doesn’t look like a very expensive film. The trending alone suggests it’s a success.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:07 AM
Also, is Wanted the biggest success this year? How much did Love Aaj Kal make. I believe it made 40 plus crores in the first week alone, so it didn’t add much after that?
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October 17, 2009 at 11:14 AM
LAK is around 65Cr. I place Wanted above it because the way its made its money. Assuredly its done huge huge business in small centres. But its a coin toss between the two.
On semi-hit/hit for WUS, well the formula for me here is its a hit if it goes past 33Cr. Its got to double its initial. And I think it should get past 30Cr, it mght fall heavy this week but I’d expect it to bounce back if the WOM is hot on the film.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:19 AM
Wanted has assuredly sold many many more tickets than LAK. The latter had average trending, nothing spectacular, Wanted though never quite took off in the multiplexes but was super in single/double screens.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:20 AM
Sandy – another way to compare is with TZP. Both TZP and WUS had similar opening weeks. TZP’s second week was 13Cr [I called it a hit], here WUS is at 9Cr [its above average].
To me, on WUS, there is no point jumping the gun. For example, it is not even a stretch that the film may not add much more too – this week I wouldn’t expect more…and lets say the film does not reach 30Cr. In other words with TZP there was a certainty, with WUS there really isn’t. That does not mean it won’t trend well again and reach 30Cr – just not dead certain on it.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:35 AM
Ah okay, but I do sense that the film has been ‘accepted’ judging from its second week numbers.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:38 AM
Agree – its a positive response, but not sure if its a runaway success or a bit like BEH where I got the feeling it was a solid performer even without being a clean success like say JTYJN.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:46 AM
it’s assuredly been accepted. Otherwise it wouldn’t have been this good in week 2. The only question is regarding the base a film starts out with.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:54 AM
Agree, Satyam.
This reinforces why a film needs to be priced according to the size of the base.
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October 18, 2009 at 4:36 AM
Remember Jay, Ranbir has also been a bit unlucky in that each of his two films, BAH and now WUP were either preceded by or followed by big releases. BAH had SIK to contend with, and now WUP has 3 big films. Without the competition, I think WUP would easily reach 40.
Somehow I get the feeling Ranbir has never projected himself as a star son and there are none of the associated shenanigans. I admire how there are very few star trapping in his demeanour. HE tends to give himself completely to his roles – that is a sense I get. He never lets his own personality get the better of his characters, which I think is a rarity. His whole portion with Bips in BAH was commendable, where he willingly sufffers all kinds of humiliation at the hands of a woman. Now, I know many actors who may not be comfortable with this. Bollywood always lays premium on macho heroes and this sort of thing runs contrary to that.
My reading is that Ranbir will be concentrate on the acting and craft part of the business (he already wants to be a director), rather than too much obsession with the number game. So he might never be your superstar.
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October 18, 2009 at 12:34 PM
LOL – next you’ll blame the monsoons and drought for his movies being average.
The truth is that Ranbir’s movies cater to the multiplex audience only and if only a small portion of that audience is interested then there is no big return. That is not Rocket science.
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October 17, 2009 at 2:07 PM
Sandy,wanted grossed 100 crores if it was a normal film.The distributor share of wanted is 40 crores.
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October 17, 2009 at 2:51 PM
but that’s precisely the point.. it is LIKE 100 80-100 crores for a multiplex friendly film.. BUT a lowbrow masala film with Salman will NEVER make 80-100 crores! You either have to go with a star with more multiplex prestige or you have to ‘upgrade’ the film. Probably both.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Great stuff as usual, Jay.
WUS will most likely make it to hit.
Hope ATB does decent because it looks like it deserves it.
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October 17, 2009 at 11:55 AM
According to BOI first day nett is around 6.5 crores.
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October 17, 2009 at 1:56 PM
I am sure it would take time and effort, but something like Altman-Z ratio ( predicts companies Bankruptcy ) could be devised which takes away most of the subjectivity in giving verdicts.
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October 17, 2009 at 4:18 PM
I like both Imran and Ranbir but if I were a betting man, I would bet on Ranbir. Imran had a terriific debut and has the goods but Luck and Kidnap were unfortunately big missteps. Agree with Prasad that JTYJN had a lot of other things going for it. But, yes, Irfan was accepted in the role and the film and obviously has an engaging presence.
Ranbir has a lot going for him. There is no question about his talent in my mind. The usual suspects are going to be sceptical because of his good looks and amy think of him just as a pretty boy. There is a kind of reverse discrimination at play amongst the ‘intelligensia’ where they tend to celebrate the successes of less than perfect physical specimens over those who are blessed with scorching good looks. Believe me, I have personally endured this kind of discrimination for far too long!
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October 17, 2009 at 5:17 PM
I don’t disagree at all that the long term prospects of ranbir are infinitely brighter than Ranbir’s. And he is definitely a talented actor though he isn’t yet an interesting one to my mind, even in flashes.
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October 18, 2009 at 4:37 AM
Imran just ruined his chances, after such a fab debut.
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October 18, 2009 at 8:50 AM
Look at the bright side: consider his films the Tum Mere Ho and Love Love Love that followed Qayamat Se Qayamat Tak 🙂
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October 18, 2009 at 9:28 AM
But there’s a point that Imran has always got an opening for his films, while Ranbir seems to be struggling there.
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October 18, 2009 at 9:50 AM
don’t think Ranbir’s struggling. He’s making his way which is fine. The guy’s just three films old. It’s only because the media pretends he’s one of the elite stars that these results then seem surprising.
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October 18, 2009 at 1:14 PM
Luck and Kidnap were average openings really. If they were decent films they’d have made 40-45Cr. I think Ranbir is better placed with better acting skills and better script sense … however, if Imran heads up an AK production every now and then he’ll keep himself in tact. Its his other choices which will be criticial for him.
Both of them should however do a film together. They would be good in a comedy.
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October 19, 2009 at 9:40 AM
BOI:
All The Best showed signs of coming to life on Saturday as it improved collections. Saturday was Diwali and normally films show drops in collections but All The Best was better on Saturday than Friday. This made it pretty obvious that Sunday would show a big jump and that it is what happened and the film had a huge Sunday.
The approx breakdowns for the weekend are 1.75 crore nett for Friday, 2.25 crore nett for Saturday and 5.50 crore nett for Sunday taking its total to 9.50 crore nett for the weekend. Monday being a holiday the film could add another 5-6 crore nett giving it around 15 crore nett over the extended weekend.
Blue has easily won the Diwali opening battle by grossing around 19 crore nett over its first weekend. The Telugu version added a further 70 lakhs nett. After a strong start the film held steady in the bigger circuits like Mumbai, Delhi/UP and East Punjab on Diwali Saturday which is normally a dull day for business due to festivities. Even Southern circuits were fairly steady. However smaller circuits like CP Berar and CI did show big drops on Saturday. Sunday was super strong all over.
The approx breakdowns for Blue over the weekend are 6.50 crore nett on Friday, 5 crore nett on Saturday and 7.50 crore nett on Sunday. The film will have a strong Monday but Tuesday will decide if the film can sustain.
Blue could set a new record for Monday business by beating Wanted’s total of 7.25 crore nett which was set last Month. The film could do anywhere between 6-8 crore on Monday giving it a 25-27 crore nett total for its extended four day weekend.
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October 19, 2009 at 9:41 AM
LOL, weirdly the 115-120 crores Ghajini doesn’t seem to have broken any records on any day for BOI!
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October 19, 2009 at 9:43 AM
By the way I’ve figured something out.. when the wordpress glitch occurs and comments start being thrown out of order.. the best way to ‘adjust’ is to reply to the last comment in the thread and your reply basically shows up as the ‘new’ last comment or the most recent one.
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October 19, 2009 at 4:47 PM
Re: “LOL, weirdly the 115-120 crores Ghajini doesn’t seem to have broken any records on any day for BOI!”
That’s classic: basically if an inconvenient actor gets a really high gross, some so-called sources will pump up the selling price — thus a film that makes 120 crores is always a “hit” because it was sold at basically 110 crores lol. Meanwhile the films of favored actors apparently are never sold at overly high prices (and, the supposedly lower price also apparently says nothing about the reduced star status of those stars)…
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October 19, 2009 at 10:53 AM
19 cr over the weekend is amazing, this guy still has his initial intact. With multiple releases every year but still managing to get this sort of an intial is amazing.
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October 19, 2009 at 11:02 AM
that figure might be overstated but that Akshay has his initial intact is doubtless true and something I’ve mentioned more than a few times in arguments over time. What this means is that he has time to recover if he gets a bit wiser in his film choices. And of course if Blue unexpectedly works he’s fine with DDD coming up.
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October 20, 2009 at 1:48 AM
It’s Bumper Diwali for Kollywood
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October 18, 2009 at 9:18 AM
To me Ranbir would make a good sidekick rather than leading man/hero.
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October 18, 2009 at 2:20 AM
You keep raising the bar for Ranbir, satyam.Good.
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October 18, 2009 at 3:01 AM
Sunil, why do I keep getting the sense that you’re getting a little paranoid at my responses? I am not some of the folks I stopped debating with a long time ago.
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October 18, 2009 at 10:01 AM
haha.Me paranoid.Ranbir is not a superstar yet.He is just a star.He is soon to be superstar.I made that comment because you seem to suggest that wus didn’t do well because cdi did more after that opening.And if he is a superstar then he wus would have opened bigger.
He is not there yet.But he will soon be there.
I dont like multiplex films like wus.I like single screen romances like ajab prem ki.There Ranbir will be seen in a mass role.If he pulls that to success and wins acclaim that he acted well in the film it would be commendable.
I dont question your authority to write anything on this blog.
But when you rundown a successful film like wus I found it surprising and said that.
Ranbir will be seen in a yashraj film rocket singh.But ajab prem ki is more important.
Anycase I hope Ajab Prem ki will do well.
probably that will set
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October 18, 2009 at 10:45 AM
If you think I’ve been running down what I’ve said on WUS I am sorry to say you’ve not been reading my views clearly.
My claim on WUS wasn’t premised on CDI (even if this is not unreasonable for the factors I brought up) but Rock On. WUS will do no more than Rock On in all probability. BAH does no more than D6, the latter supposedly the greatest flop around! facts are stubborn things!
All of this is a problem only if you start calling him a superstar or superstar-to-be. Otherwise there’s no issue.
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October 18, 2009 at 8:45 AM
Frankly, managing to earn a mere 25 crores with a Dharma banner, great reviews and overwhelming media/industry support is not a cause for celebration. Inspite of all these advantages AND a low budget, this movie could not reach a hit status.
Ranbir is talented, no doubt, but he has nowhere near the fan following necessary to being a top star. Not yet. I think Imran has more fan following than Ranbir, inspite of his two duds.
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October 18, 2009 at 10:14 AM
Here is a bet from me.If ajab prem ki does 40 crores I will talk highly of Ranbir or else I wont talk about him for a month.
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October 18, 2009 at 6:13 PM
Will they bring on the box-office magic?
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October 18, 2009 at 8:04 PM
BoC:
BO: Blue opens better than All The Best, Main Aurr Mrs Khanna
MUMBAI: The much touted Diwali releases – Blue, Main Aurr Mrs Khanna and All The Best have released and riding ahead of the other is the Akshay Kumar starrer Blue.
The movie has opened exceptionally well with approximately 70 – 80 per cent occupancy at some theatres, whereas it is running to full house at some theatres. On the other hand, the Salman Khan – Kareena Kapoor starrer Main Aurr Mrs Khanna and Ajay Devgn and Sanjay Dutt starrer All The Best have not done as expected. Both the movies opened in the range of approximately 20 – 50 per cent.
Speaking to Businessofcinema.com, Fun Cinemas chief operating officer Vishal Kapur said, “Blue opened really well and we are almost 80 per cent booked over the weekend but the reviews of the film have not been really good. The audience coming out of the theatres have not really liked the film. Main Aurr Mrs. Khanna has had an average response with about 40 – 50 per cent, while All the Best has been the lowest of the lot with 20 per cent.”
Fame cinemas AVP distribution, programming and corporate sales Aditya Shroff added, “The response to all the three films has been mixed. Blue has definitely opened very well and it should keep up till Monday night since it’s the holiday weekend. All The Best and Main Aurr Mrs. Khanna has been a below average opening. This could also be due to the fact today being pre-Diwali most of the people are busy with Diwali preparations. Maybe once Diwali gets over and people are free these films will pick up.”
“Blue is a film that’s worth watching once, people are not coming in to watch a story but more for the action because of all the hype that was created, people are curious to see it. The reaction so far has been good, it has opened really well and it’s still picking up. Main Aurr Mrs. Khanna is more of a family film and while most of the Salman fans have liked the film, the opening has been average at 40 per cent and we are expecting it to go up by evening. Having said that, these four days all the three movies should do good business since it’s a long weekend,” says Cinemax senior vice president strategy Devang Sampat.
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October 18, 2009 at 8:06 PM
LOS ANGELES – “Where the Wild Things Are” proved a bigger hit with adult audiences than family crowds as the adaptation of Maurice Sendak’s beloved children’s book debuted at No. 1 with $32.5 million.
Moviegoers 18 and older accounted for 43 percent of the audience, while parents with children made up 27 percent, according to distributor Warner Bros.
Overture Films earned the No. 2 spot with Jamie Foxx and Gerard Butler’s vengeance thriller “Law Abiding Citizen,” which debuted with $21.3 million.
Expanding into wider release, Paramount’s low-budget horror sensation “Paranormal Activity” moved up to No. 3 with $20.2 million.
Shot for a reported $15,000, “Paranormal Activity” outdid the premiere of Sony’s fright flick “The Stepfather,” which cost $19 million and played in nearly four times as many theaters but managed just a No. 5 opening with $12.3 million.
The results for “Where the Wild Things Are” matched the intent of director Spike Jonze, who viewed his take as a story about a child, but not necessarily a children’s movie.
During production, Jonze had clashed with Warner Bros., which had wanted a more kid-friendly film. The studio gave Jonze more time and money to finish the film and ultimately backed his vision with a huge marketing campaign for “Wild Things.”
“I think all sides reached a very happy compromise, and certainly Spike delivered a movie that was so true to the book, yet it generated the emotion that we felt strongly about to bring in our family audience, as well,” said Dan Fellman, head of distribution for Warner.
Jonze’s adaptation features newcomer Max Records as Sendak’s misbehaving young protagonist, a boy who journeys to a make-believe island of monsters torn between hugging him and eating him. The live-action and voice cast includes Catherine Keener, James Gandolfini and Forest Whitaker.
A cheap acquisition at the Slamdance Film Festival, “Paranormal Activity” came out of nowhere, riding online fan buzz to a domestic total of $33.7 million so far. The movie expanded to 760 theaters, up 600 from the previous weekend, and has plenty of room to grow.
Paramount plans to expand the movie to between 1,800 and 2,000 theaters next weekend, then widen its release even farther for Halloween. It will go head-to-head with an established horror franchise as Lionsgate opens “Saw VI” on Friday.
Shot in a raw documentary style, “Paranormal Activity” is a twist on the haunted house story as a couple tries to capture on camera the strange phenomena and apparitions afflicting them.
“Paranormal Activity” might have a shot to duplicate the success of “The Blair Witch Project,” a 1999 Sundance Film Festival discovery that rode Internet buzz to a $140 million domestic total.
“When you have a movie playing this well and it has such a broad appeal, it certainly tells you that is a possible outcome,” said Rob Moore, vice chairman of Paramount. “I certainly couldn’t predict it yet, but nothing with this movie has been predictable so far.”
Hollywood had its strongest weekend yet this fall, with overall business at $141 million, up 41 percent from the same weekend last year.
“All the top five movies all did really well. It’s kind of exciting to see the box-office get reignited and to see consumers excited about what’s available,” said Kyle Davies, head of distribution for Overture.
Fans had a good range of choices among horror tales, action, family fare and romantic comedy, including the previous weekend’s No. 1 movie, Universal’s “Couples Retreat,” which slipped to fourth-place with $17.9 million. “Couples Retreat” raised its 10-day total to $63.3 million.
“This is why the fall is such a great time to be not only a studio executive, but a moviegoer. It’s really an eclectic mix out there. You don’t get this in summer,” said Paul Dergarabedian, box-office analyst for Hollywood.com.
Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Hollywood.com. Final figures will be released Monday.
1. “Where the Wild Things Are,” $32.5 million.
2. “Law Abiding Citizen,” $21.3 million.
3. “Paranormal Activity,” $20.2 million.
4. “Couples Retreat,” $17.9 million.
5. “The Stepfather,” $12.3 million.
6. “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs,” $8.1 million.
7. “Zombieland,” $7.8 million.
8. “Toy Story” and “Toy Story 2” in 3-D, $3 million.
9. “Surrogates,” $1.92 million.
10. “The Invention of Lying,” $1.9 million.
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October 19, 2009 at 2:12 AM
18 Crore weekend for BLUE
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/19/18-crore-weekend-for-blue-monday-will-be-deciding-factor/
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October 19, 2009 at 9:26 AM
thanks.. do keep us updated on the weekday business..
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October 20, 2009 at 2:49 AM
http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/top5/index.html
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October 20, 2009 at 2:59 AM
A better link is
http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/top5/595.html
(as bottom there is archive) just click on that.
The link is redundant as soon as new report comes in.
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October 20, 2009 at 3:16 AM
ATB – 16 Crore/BLUE – 24 Crore/MAMK – 7 Crore In 4 Days
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/20/atb-16-croreblue-24-
croremamk-7-crore-in-4-days/
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October 20, 2009 at 3:17 AM
coorect link ..
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/20/atb-16-croreblue-24-croremamk-7-crore-in-4-days/
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October 20, 2009 at 11:12 AM
thanks for the update.. looks quite steady so far..
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October 20, 2009 at 11:23 AM
I think Blue will fall heavily soon. I think its a KI deal here. 30-35Cr opening and 45-50Cr total.
ATB will probably be more stable.
MAMK is gone already.
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October 20, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Jay,
What is the assumption based on .i.e Blue falling so badly?
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October 20, 2009 at 11:41 AM
Gut feeling … there is hardly any positive response I have read. Plus I think already the projected weekend totals from sources are not great. 25Cr odd is good but hardly excellent. I would be surprised if it made more than 50Cr.
The combined total for these 3 films for first week could be 35Cr+20Cr+10Cr = 65Cr. Ghajini + RNBDJ would have made the same in a 7 day scenario. But 3 new films surely have more prints in circulation then one new film + a film two weeks old. Also OSO + Saawariya would have made 55Cr together in 2007. So I just don’t think the Diwali releases have fired overall. Not to mention, most of the estimates could be overestimates as usual.
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October 20, 2009 at 11:52 AM
those are all good points Jay and to be honest I too have been expecting something like this all along..
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October 20, 2009 at 4:58 PM
Rajesh.. too kind as always..
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October 21, 2009 at 11:15 AM
Taran’s update:
he festival of lights has brought cheer. Year after year, you look at the festive season to bail out the film industry from insurmountable difficulties and losses. This year was no exception. The previous Diwali releases had brought all-round cheer and we were expecting an encore this year.
Of course, the so-called soothsayers predicted doomsday for all three films [BLUE, ALL THE BEST and MAIN AURR MRS. KHANNA], but BLUE and ALL THE BEST have proved them wrong. This Diwali, the film industry has been rewarded handsomely by Lady Luck, with BLUE and ALL THE BEST generating excellent business.
The Friday to Monday response has been covered already, so let’s move forward…
A section of the media has gone ballistic speculating about the budget of BLUE. Some said Rs. 90 crores. Some said Rs. 100 crores. Some said Rs. 125 crores. No one knows the actual number, except the producers of course, and in this case, I’ve been told that the cost is anywhere between Rs. 70 crores and Rs. 80 crores [includes P & A expenses].
Now here’s a surprise! Not many are aware that the actors of BLUE decided to forego a chunk of their remuneration, so that BLUE doesn’t turn red, financially speaking. Let’s not forget, it’s not the film, but the price that fails.
BLUE had a fantastic 4-day weekend, while Tuesday was rock-steady at some screens, but witnessed a dip at places. Of course, Week 2 holds the key and it would be interesting to see if it’s high tide or low tide on coming days. As for ALL THE BEST, Ajay Devgn and Rohit Shetty should celebrate. The film picked up dramatically on Sunday and Monday and was neck-to-neck with BLUE at several screens. On Tuesday, ALL THE BEST was ahead at several places, which proved that the business has indeed shown a jump.
ALL THE BEST is a family entertainer and that segment of moviegoers has embraced the film with open arms. Like they say in filmi lingo, picture chipak gayee hain. I foresee a very good innings for ALL THE BEST in Week 2. This laughathon should ensure that Ajay Devgn, its producer, laughs all the way to the bank.
MAIN AURR MRS. KHANNA got completely sidelined in the process. The film would’ve fared better had it not clashed with BLUE and ALL THE BEST. The overall numbers are poor.
In the final tally, the race is between BLUE and ALL THE BEST. As on this date, both seem to be shining bright!
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October 21, 2009 at 11:24 AM
Taran is sounding more and more like a shill.
How the hell can a movie that cost 70-80 crores and has earned under 30 crores in almost a week be considered doing excellent business? Even with an average 50% drop Blue will still have earned only 50 crores in two weeks before the next set of movies release – London Dreams, Aladin, Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani, Jail, etc.
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October 21, 2009 at 11:29 AM
the usual Taran damage control!
Having said that and even if I don’t expect it to sustain I would be glad to see Akshay get a hit.
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October 21, 2009 at 11:33 AM
I would like to see Akshay get a hit with a decent movie. If crappy movies become a hit, then it just encourages them to produce more crap. No thanks.
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October 21, 2009 at 11:40 AM
Absolutely
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October 22, 2009 at 1:29 AM
IBOS
BO: ATB winning the sweepstakes; Qurbaan shifted
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
All the Best, which had surprised naysaying trade experts, by opening better than Blue in many single screen theaters on Friday, continued its solid if not necessarily spectacular run through the week. Blue, which had on balance, opened at #1 ahead of both ATB and the Salman Khan-Sohail Khan starrer Mr. aurr Mrs. Khanna, held on reasonably ok before registering noticeable drops mid-week onwards. Blue is headed for a 30 crore week possibly which is good enough in that it won the initial contest for Akshay Kumar against Salman Khan after Wanted, but may not be enough to save the film itself because the collections are not sustaining in high enough levels past the Diwali opening and 2nd weekend advance is unimpressive. So Blue, which is billed at a cost of Rs 80-100 crores, will likely end up a loser commercially. Though set near Bahamas, the film has not impressed North America either with the US weekend collections at under $250k reportedly.
All the Best on the other hand may too serve up over Rs. 25 crores in India. But the Goa set film is much more economical for its producer (again Devgan), and what’s going for it is the fact that it’s 2nd weekend screenings have been increased in some locations. So if the opening weekend belonged to Blue, the 2nd weekend will go to All The Best.
Bringing up the rear is the Salman Khan and Kareena Kapoor’s Main aurr Mrs. Khanna. The film had a weak opening and sank only further south over the weekdays, shocking a section of the media who had billed Salman Khan to be superstar all of sudden. However those who track actual box office figures know that even Wanted had only an average opening overall when looked comparatively across India so it is no surprise the way MAMK opened. Besides, barring a few exceptions, overall content is king over the stars. Very few actors enjoy or have enjoyed, what’s known in the industry as ‘blind initial’ film after film in the same year. The audience typically wavers film to film as well. As it so happens, the last ‘big’ openings for a film with Salman Khan were multistarrers Salaam-E-Ishq and Partner and even the latter, though successful, wasn’t recordbreaking sort. Statistically, the All India recordbreaking opening weeks of Salman Khan’s career are Rakesh Roshan’s Karan Arjun in 1995 and the film Hum Saath Saath Hain by the Rajshris in 1999. Though it should be said his Biwi No. 1 that same year did break the opening record in Bombay releasing on May 27, 1999 (Rs. 74 lakhs) with Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam (Rs. 67 lakhs) with Devgan and Aishwarya Rai trailing a few weeks later on June 18, 1999, before both being surpassed in Bombay by the opening of Hindustan Ki Kasam (Rs. 78 lakhs) released during Kargil War in July 1999, and then eventually HSSH on Diwali 1999, which 10 years ago was the first film to net Rs. 1 crore opening week in Bombay city.
Salman Khan will look for some of that HDDCS luck to rub off him again as the HDDCS co-actor Ajay Devgan is there with the Vipul Shah starrer London Dreams on October 30. This film should take a decent to good opening though there are no guarantees as also releasing with it will be Aladin, which is also likely to take a good opening despite its Arabian Nights genre being a weak link in India. Aladin is said to have been customized and made in romance-action-masala format and stars Amitabh Bachchan in a faceoff with Sanjay Dutt (*ng in Blue & ATB both).
The film though that is picking up steam fastest is Ranbir Kapoor starrer Ajab Prem Ki Ghajab Kahani starring Katrina Kaif opposite him, and releasing just a week after Aladin and London Dreams. APKGK is directed by Raj Kumar Santoshi and sees the return to romantic-comedy by the director of Andaaz Apna Apna.
Meanwhile seeing the box office trending of Kareena Kapoor starrers Kambakht Ishq and MAMK, rumors are that Karan Johar’s Qurbaan, a films on terror war against America, and starring Kareena Kapoor and Saif Ali Khan as its supposed USP, is getting shifted away from a clash to November 20th. Earlier the film was set to clash against another Akshay Kumar-Sunil Shetty-Paresh Rawal comic caper, De Dana Dan on November 27th.
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October 22, 2009 at 1:31 AM
IBOS
Why Distributor Share is wrong way to rank box office
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Would we consider rating the commercial success of the last Michael Jackson music album based firstly on the order of how much the CD delivery truckdriver made?
That’s exactly who a distributor is in the movie business. He’s the truck driver, a middleman. The distributor is not Shahrukh Khan or Salman Khan or Amitabh Bachchan or Akshay Kumar or Hrithik Roshan or Abhishek Bachchan or Aishwarya Rai, nor is he Sanjay Bhansali or Reliance or Warner Brothers or Yash Chopra creating the product. Nor is he the audience consuming the product. His/Its relevance to the movie’s ‘economy’ is strictly intermediate. Neither irrelevant, nor primary.
In the movie album business, music CD can be the product, a company like Sony the album producer, and the buyer is the audience. But have we ever heard of music album’s success being contingent on the distributor ie (truck driver)’s share? No, and that is why the notion of using distributor share primarily to rank movies’ economic impact doesn’t make sense either. You don’t rank a movie’s success by the agent’s commission, which can depend on a number of factors, including how low or high he agrees to buy a film at.
This is not to entirely discount distribution’s role. Of course without distributors and distribution films don’t get from producers’ studios to theaters. But if the movie release business is a supply chain, a distributor is just one node in that supply chain. Distributor share can be a way to look at films, but it is not the centrally critical criteria as far as overall box office/commercial result is concerned.
Ultimately the box office and commercial impact measure of a movie is whether it managed to create more capital than it took to generate it. For that we have to measure the inflow-outflow at each node of the release process and if the net cash inflow is more than the net outflow, the movie is a commercial success. Otherwise, not.
However since in India, there is not the transparency to reveal cost structures at each node, the best indication is the admissions grosses. And to create the commercial profile based on that primarily. Even there, there is a catch. Collections are revealed as net collections. When that is not what the consumer is paying or the movie generating at the actual box office. Why talk of cost of production of film in gross terms (ex. it cost 80 crores, it cost 50 crores), but box office collections in net terms? Talking in net terms excludes the impact it makes towards Government coiffers via the entertainment tax and thus on the overall economy. What the movie is generating is reflected in the gross box office not the net.
In closing, Gross Box Office ie GBO, is the international standard in the cinema business, not nett or distributor share. And the Indian film industry should work towards transparently reporting that first and foremost across all regions and languages in its cinema business.
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October 22, 2009 at 8:00 AM
This is really good article, however quite debatable, one key point is all the nodes can make profits even without releasing movie(which never means movie is HIT), its only distribution share which results in profit/loss just because of entire run of movie. So distribution share is only base node(even primary) for box-office ranking, otherwise rest of nodes can enjoy profit/loss without even release of movie.
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October 24, 2009 at 12:13 AM
Taran’s top 5:
http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/top5/index.html
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October 24, 2009 at 12:15 AM
BOI:
Blue Has Good First Week All The Best Steady
Saturday 24th October 2008 09.00 IST
Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network
All The Best picked up hugely on Sunday and remained rock steady throughout the week. The first week collections are in the 24 crore nett region with Gujarat having excellent collections. Mysore and West Bengal are one the lower side.
Blue has a good first week of around 32.50 crore nett for the hindi version. The film started superbly but has seen daily drops since Tuesday. It will be important to film to have a good second weekend. All circuits have seen good collections in the first week.
Main Aurr Mrs. Khanna is a flop with around 7.50 crore nett collections in week one. The film has been taken off many screens in week two.
Wake Up Sid takes its three week nett business to 25.25 crore nett. ABOVE AVERAGE
Wanted has grossed 59.75 crore approx in four weeks. SUPERHIT
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October 24, 2009 at 12:16 AM
Blue is going the KI way.. the BOI number must be assumed as being the highest possible one for the film.
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October 24, 2009 at 12:30 AM
Looks like ATB will overtake Blue in the end. Akshay is again not able to capitalise on a good intial. I hope at least DDD sustains for him.
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October 24, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Nahata:
TRADE TALK – Film Industry’s Reality Show
October 23, 2009 by TFSJ
In all my years in the film industry, I’ve seen a lot changing. The way the films are made, how they are released, the attitudes of stars and technicians, everything but everything has undergone a metamorphosis. While some things have changed for the better, there are other spaces in which the industry finds itself worse off than what it was before the change occurred.
However, there’s one thing that has not changed at all. And from the look of it, it doesn’t seem, it’s going to change in the weeks, months and years to come.
People simply can’t accept that their film has flopped or gone wrong. Whether they are producers, directors, writers or actors, they will just not like it if you tell them that their film, which is running in the cinemas, is not doing well or that the audience is not happy with it. They will look at you with such scornful eyes that you will regret why you opened your mouth in the first place. Every person in this industry has his group of close friends or confidantes who insulate him from the harsh realities of the outside world, especially when his film has released. This group of cronies takes it upon itself to filter all information about the film before passing it on to the connected person.
The maximum filtering happens when the person is either the hero, producer or director of the film. Strange as it may sound, even distributors, who pay crores to buy films, happily lie about the box-office performance and camouflage the negative truths with such cliched one-liners as: “Oh ji, koi fikar nahin, Sunday se collections badh jaayenge”; “Arre, media ke reviews se kya hota hai? Public toh paagal ho rahi hai – and that is what matters!”; “Hit hai ji, hit hai!” The more ‘concerned’ distributor will even say, “Don’t believe anybody else, main jo aap ko bol raha hoon woh solah aana sach hai.” Saying this, he will then go on to speak lies about a film which may have flopped. The aim is to not give the producer/director/star a 440-volt shock.
But this very distributor will do a volte face four weeks later. He will visit the producer’s office with a fallen face and matching collections to drive home the point that he has suffered heavy losses in the film and that the producer should consider refunding him part of the MG royalty paid, to compensate him for the losses. If the producer’s next film looks interesting, the crest-fallen distributor may even prompt him to sell the distribution rights to him at a concessional rate to take care of the losses in the already released film. In fact, the distributor’s sweet talk in the week of release, about how the flop film was a hit, may have as much to do with eyeing the next one as with not giving him a heart attack by bombarding him with the genuine box-office collections of his film. Though, it fails common sense to understand how a producer can reach the ICCU on his film’s failure when he could take the crazy star prices, equally crazy technician prices and the crazier star tantrums in his stride. But that’s the way it is!
Reviews of new films in the media are double-edged swords. A glowing review for a film is welcomed with lavish words of praise for the reviewer by the people associated with that film but that very reviewer becomes a “frustrated” man or woman if he doesn’t like another film of the same star/producer/director. Three, four and five stars by critics and reviewers are flaunted by producers in press advertisements of their films issued post-release in a bid to woo the audience, but if the media hasn’t been kind, the most convenient line is: “Who cares about the reviews? Finally, it is the paying public for whom I’ve made the film, not the paagal press!”
This fascination for positive reviews has reached such maddening heights that some producers don’t even hesitate in extracting favourable lines from unfavourable reviews and printing them in the press advertisements of their film to give the potential audience the impression that the film has been given the thumbs up by the media. Unethical as it may be, there are reviewers who write patently glowing lines in the review just so that their names may figure in the film’s advertisements! Making TV/radio channels, newspapers and media groups media partners of their film, producers hope to get positive reviews for the films. More often than not, their hopes turn into reality when the media partners undeservedly praise the films which they are partners in.
With close friends, distributors and, often, even the press painting a flop film as a hit, is it any wonder that a producer/director/writer/star finds it difficult or sometimes impossible to believe that his film is a flop? In fact, not accepting that one has made a flop could be one of the main reasons why people in this industry fail with such alarming regularity. No doubt, filmmaking is not an easy job. It is very difficult to first understand public tastes and then cater to them by making films which they want to see. All that is fine.
But if there is something as learning from one’s own mistakes, that path of acquiring knowledge is often not available to the film people, whether they are producers, directors, writers or stars. For, to learn from his mistakes, a person has to first accept that he has made a mistake, that he has failed, that he has gone wrong somewhere, that he has erred. But when the film people, so full of themselves, treat everybody who talks – even wrongly – good about their film as a friend, and anybody who criticises their film, as a foe, you can’t expect them to improve. Oftentimes, in a bid to fool the world that they’ve made a hit, the persons associated with a flop start believing their own lies.
Akshay Kumar and Kareena Kapoor went on and on when their Kambakkht Ishq was released, about how huge a hit it was. Of course, the collections were in contradiction to their comments but they were in no mood to see reason. Finally, many weeks after the film was pronounced a flop by the trade, Kareena reportedly admitted in an interview that the film had failed. Other actors may not even do that – admit neither before the world nor to themselves – that their film was a flop!
If there is no escape route and a producer, director or star is forced to accept facts and agree that his film was a box-office bomb, catch him blaming the failure on either the weather or the opposition or the riots that may have broken out when his film hit the screens or on any thing else that may seemingly make sense. For instance, Mumbai Mantra, the corporate which acquired Onir’s Sorry Bhai!, to this day blames its failure on the terrorist attacks in Bombay on 26th November 2008. It’s true that the damp squib was released on 28th November – but it’s also a fact that box-office collections wouldn’t have been very different even if Sorry Bhai! had come in the most peaceful atmosphere in the country.
The powers that be at Mumbai Mantra must be ashamed of their folly in acquiring the film which not many would have picked up, and it is to hide their guilt that they may be playing the terrorist attack card everytime they are confronted with its dismal box-office collections. But the fact remains that they are yet to accept that the film was a box-office bomb and not merely because terrorists exploded bombs at strategic locations in Bombay two days before it was released.
If Mumbai Mantra can’t accept that Sorry Bhai! was indeed a disaster because of reasons intrinsic to it, how can you expect its director, Onir, or stars to accept that they went so drastically wrong. Sorry, bhai, everyone’s waiting for a reason to blame his debacle on something or someone else and here, Onir and company didn’t even have to try too hard. Mumbai Mantra was their biggest saviour – before release, when it acquired the film for distribution on payment of a price; and after release, by trying to convince the world that the film was a victim of circumstances.
In his or her own way, every actor behaves like Akshay Kumar and every actress, like Kareena Kapoor after the release of Kambakkht Ishq. No filmmaker is any different from Onir, and it would be difficult to find a corporate which doesn’t behave like Mumbai Mantra. For, it suits them to feign ignorance. For them, reality is a word that only sits pretty when it precedes a show on television. Or when it comes to another’s film!
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October 24, 2009 at 8:56 AM
Well satyam .. Check this Performance calculation technique would be glad to have your inputs.
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/24/performance-calculation/
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October 24, 2009 at 9:06 AM
You seem to have included a number of factors which is good. Here are issues I’d have:
1)On the volume argument Aamir would fail almost every single year this decade. But this wouldn’t be a convincing metric for him inasmuch as Aamir’s brandnane depends on low volume or he has at least defined it as such.
2)I am unclear about the 50 crore nett argument.. perhaps you could elaborate on it here.
3)I admire your attempt at precision. However I also think that cinema is often a very ‘irrational’ enterprise in that perception plays a very important part. The question then becomes about setting a ‘narrative’ for films more often than not where of course one tries to be as objective as possible on the numbers and how successful or not the film has been but then one also considers what the ‘meaning’ of this might be. The same for stars and so forth.
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October 24, 2009 at 9:14 AM
Nahata:
TRADE TALK – ‘Blue’ In The Red…
The start of Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision Ltd.’s Blue on Friday, October 16, was a dream start. Considering that the adventure thriller opened on the last day of pre-Diwali, the initial was historic.
But the robust opening was only a quarter of the battle won for the multi-starrer which cost the corporate over Rs. 80 crore to make and another Rs. 6-7 crore to market. Three-fourths of the battle still remained to be fought and the only weapon in the bag of Blue was the audience’s word of mouth.
With the public rejecting the film, it became evident on day 1 itself that the film would be left behind in the box-office race or, to use the language of the sea adventure which Blue is, it would sink fast. Collections on Sunday and Monday were impressive because of the New Year and Bhai Dooj holidays but they weren’t as good as they ought to have been, looking to the flying start of Friday.
Had the mouth publicity of the audience been positive, Blue just might have been able to scrape through or may have even made a profit. For that, the collections would have to be maintained at the 50-60% level on week days and the 85-95% level during the weekends for a full three weeks. However, the collections on Wednesday and Thursday of the first week itself had come down to 15-25%, giving a clear indication that Shree Ashtavinayak would stand to lose at least 40-45% of its investment. With an all-India gross of approximately Rs. 50 crore and nett collections of Rs. 32 crore, the first week’s share of distributors from multiplexes and single-screen cinemas is in the region of Rs. 20 crore only.
The all-India business (including that of the Telugu version) is expected to be Rs. 29 to 30 crore, at best. Add to this another Rs. 8-9 crore for the Overseas circuit and you have a theatrical world business of Rs. 37-39 crore. The satellite rights of the film (in both languages) aren’t expected to fetch more than Rs. 7-8 crore. With audio, home video and miscellaneous rights accounting for another Rs. 8 crore (after deducting the losses of the parties which may have acquired those rights at fancy prices), the total revenue to Shree Ashtavinayak cannot be more than Rs. 52-55 crore.
With a total investment of Rs. 90 crore (besides the cost of production and promotion, there was a huge investment in prints and for UFO), a recovery of Rs. 52-55 crore translates into a loss of around Rs. 35-38 crore.
Shree Ashtavinayak, in all its excitement to make the costliest film of Bollywood, forgot to invest some time in the script. The ironical part is that a film runs on the strength of its script and not the crores that go into its making. Rightly did a disgruntled multiplex owner remark, “People come to our cinemas to watch a story unfold, not to see how much money a producer is capable of spending. In Blue, the audience was sorely disappointed because there was no script to talk about.”
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October 24, 2009 at 9:29 AM
Thanks Satyam for inputs:
1. Volume parameter is important to balance the overall success/Hit relative to attempts and revenue he has generated. If any actor has only one release in 10 years which is hit, we can’t take his success as 100%. Other parameters will balance his overall performance and will be logical when compared to other actor who has 5 hits out of 10 (which never means 50% performance).
2. 50 Crore is benchmark in current scenario and score of revenue generated will be against this benchmark. This is important factor because if an actor make 10 small hits which generate 100 crore overall revenue cannot be bigger than an actor who gave 6 bigger hits out of 10 with much higher overall revenue (say 300 crore). So this parameter is to balance this conflict.
3) What i feel this technique also take into account all the perceptions.
Satyam, right now i will not be able to continue this discussion, will love to continue tomorrow.
I have applied this method to the lists of Aamir, Salman, Hritik and Amitabh. Check the results.
Thanks.
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October 24, 2009 at 10:09 AM
but don’t you think 50 crores is inadequate when films regularly open around 35 crores or more?
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October 25, 2009 at 4:18 AM
Satyam, 50 Crore is just a benchmark keeping in mind the average gross of all successful movies in a year, And again if i take 40 or 60 or any other figure, it will not affect the relative performance. Relative performance will remain same if i take any figure; I took 50 on average note.
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October 25, 2009 at 4:20 AM
For better understanding check these lists:
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/09/16/aamir-khan-career-in-this-decade/
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/09/16/salman-khan-career-in-this-decade/
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/03/hritik-roshan-career-in-this-decade/
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October 25, 2009 at 4:21 AM
satyam .. i have put up some links in recent comment which comes under moderation, please check.
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October 20, 2009 at 9:51 AM
http://movies.rediff.com/report/2009/oct/20/diwali-box-office-report.htm
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October 20, 2009 at 11:47 AM
At 45-50 crore it would be a disaster.
I would still reserve my judgement to see how the rest of the week and second weekend performs.
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October 20, 2009 at 11:50 AM
Second weekend is most important. Also IF its 25Cr from first 4 days [lets say that is correct] then its important to see where the week 1 finishes. Will be good indicator of things to come.
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October 20, 2009 at 11:55 AM
also many films do quite well over an extended holiday weekend.. of course these figures are supplied without there being any sense of what an optimal number would be relative to volume and so forth. So we saw with KI how the first week number indicated that the film was collapsing. Anything lower than 40 crores for this sort of film indicates the drop has begin. If it’s 35 crores or less it’s usually a pretty significant one and this was true for KI. Of course Akshay’s initial is intact. The openings reveal this much but he has to be careful.
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October 20, 2009 at 11:56 AM
just watched “BLUE” and i really fancied the movie,
just checked it on uk top ten guessed it right BLUE is at no 10.
Although as jayshah said it above the coming days will reveal the films faith….
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October 20, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Quite surprised by some of the positive response to ATB. I never thought much of Devgan in a comedy. He looks so awkward in a larger than life role.
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October 20, 2009 at 12:04 PM
yeah, this one looks to be stable but again a significant gross might be ruled out because of the competition…
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October 20, 2009 at 4:11 PM
Satyam: In a unrelated note, did not see link to Amitabh’s blog and your comments in the blog since last 2 days here. Or did I miss it here?
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October 20, 2009 at 4:47 PM
Rajesh, I was unable to respond on the last two posts, was busy with a few things and didn’t really have a chance to put up the sort of lengthy response I usually do. I’ve put up brief responses on today’s post. Hopefully I’ll make for all this tomorrow!
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October 20, 2009 at 4:54 PM
Thanks Saytam.I was just curios. It was very rare you miss there. Without your comments Amitji’ blog is missing something 🙂
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October 20, 2009 at 12:05 PM
Yes jayshah i agree with you ,Ajay devgan even looked mis-match in golmal-return
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October 20, 2009 at 12:04 PM
I predict all three movies will flop. Maybe ATB will emerge as Average but with big releases beginiing next week they have to make a lot of money within the next 10 days which is not likely.
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October 20, 2009 at 12:22 PM
I expect ATB to be at least a recovery.
Blue, I expect to hold better than KI. MAMK is a cetain disaster.
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October 20, 2009 at 12:23 PM
Again, I think the simultaneous release has hurt all three films. Released on their own ATB would have done much better.
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October 20, 2009 at 12:48 PM
Akshay Kumar’s lucky charm is Katrina
http://entertainment.oneindia.in/bollywood/gupshup/2009/akshay-katrina-lucky-charm-201009.html
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October 20, 2009 at 2:50 PM
quite good conversation here, bollybusiness reported some updates about tuesday numbers at comments section, reportedly 50% fall , which is huge imo
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October 21, 2009 at 5:27 AM
Tuesday Saw a Sizable fall for BLUE and ATB.
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/21/tuesday-saw-a-sizable-fall-for-blue-and-atb/
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October 24, 2009 at 12:37 AM
As I predicted, all three Diwali releases will be termed flops by the end of week 2. Actually, MAMK and Blue are beyond recovery now and ATB may get to 35 cr which is still not enough to be deemed it a success.
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October 24, 2009 at 7:52 AM
BLue is sanjay dutt film.Akshay has a guest appearance in the film.
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October 24, 2009 at 7:54 AM
Komal Nahta givees false verdcits to films,and I dont give any value to his views.
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October 25, 2009 at 7:50 AM
Happy Birthday Jay!!! Have a blast and keep up the ace work!
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October 25, 2009 at 8:30 AM
Ah thanks masterpraz! The older I get the less I want to be reminded! LOL! But thanks!
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October 25, 2009 at 8:48 AM
Haha I think that rings true for most of us…but it can’t be heled 😀
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