JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Mixed Response To Diwali Releases

New Releases

Blue

Blue arrived with the biggest of expectations of all the Diwali releases and at least delivered on its promise of a big opening. Starring Akshay Kumar, Sanjay Dutt, Lara Dutta and Zayed Khan – the actioner took a big start on opening and things looked good for the majority of the Diwali weekend. However, since audience and critical response was taking a beating it came as no surprise when collections fell heavily after the holiday period was over.

Currently with a first week haul of 30.5-32.5Cr – Blue’s collections can be counted as strong considering the competition has made around the same in collections. However, it’s quite clear the film is already showing signs of running on low fuel and a big second week drop is expected. All things the same, Blue is very much in the same category as Kambakht Ishq – a hyped film that could be destined to underperform as early as the second week.

All The Best

All The Best had a poor start considering the publicity and casting. Despite this, the Ajay Devgan, Sanjay Dutt and Bipasha Basu starrer is the surprise package of Diwali with a stunning turnaround through the week. The collections are bountiful and the second week will be huge too. Word of mouth picked up quickly after the weekend and favourable reviews were a bonus considering the comedy genre usually takes a beating from critics.

Week 1 All The Best [ATB] vs Week 1 Golmaal Returns [GR]
Mumbai -43% means GR is 43% MORE than ATB in Week 1

Mumbai -43%
Ahmedabad -9%
Shrirampur -57%
Sangli -1587%
Gandhinagar -22%
Naroda 3%
Baroda -19%
Surat -79%
Anand -93%
Bharuch -69%
Nadiad -40%
Vapi 36%
Mehsana 6%
Navsari -13%
Bardoli -102%
Rajkot -91%
Jamnagar -17%
Bhavnagar 14%
Junagadh -72%
Porbandar -20%
Himmatnagar 8%
Pune -89%
Goa -102%
Kolhapur -193%
Solapur -30%
Satara -153%
Sangli -135%
Miraj -145%
Nasik -41%
Gurgaon -524%
Faridabad -638%
Nagpur -652%
Raipur -936%
Indore -68%
Sehore -39%
Jaipur -454%
Kolkatta -4073%
Ajmer -93%
Aurangabad -1562%

The cumulative centre total in 39 centres for ATB = 12.61Cr (ignored 1 centre)
The cumulative centre total in 39 centres for GR = 20.63Cr (ignored 1 centre)

This means that ATB is 61% of GR’s total (12.61/20.63 = 61%)

Using GR’s Week 1 total of 39.0Cr, ATB’s Week 1 = 61% * (39.0) = 23.8Cr

A similar exercise with Sarkar Raaj and Welcome yields 25.1Cr & 24.6Cr respectively

All The Best 1 Week Total = 24.0-25.0Cr(Week 1) = 24.0-25.0Cr

Verdict – Good Opening Week

All The Best is very much a tale of two halves. The first half of the week started on a low note – mainly due to the huge initial response to Blue but once the audiences got a feel of the two films it is All The Best that is clearly emerging victorious. The second half of the week has seen huge collections and the overall first week haul is good and could have been even better if a solo release was given to the film. A total of 50Cr is not a stretch and would constitute a hit total if reached.

Main Aurr Mrs Khanna

It is rare a Salman Khan and Kareena Kapoor starrer could get so sidelined in a clash but that is the case with Main Aurr Mrs Khanna. Though the truth really is the film faltered on advertising the romance as a full Salman release when really it was a Sohail Khan starrer. Collecting only 7.0-7.5Cr, Main Aurr Mrs Khanna is almost certainly a flop after a hugely disappointing week at the box office both critically and audience response wise.

Past Releases

Wake Up Sid

Not surprisingly Wake Up Sid fell massively in its third week. A huge fall of 90% is surprising though and the film has an opportunity to capitalize on Blue’s faltering performance in the current week. Adding a further 0.6-0.7Cr Wake Up Sid now has collected 25.0-25.9Cr – qualifying the Ranbir Kapoor starrer as an above average performer.

January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)

February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)

March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)

April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)

June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 42.5 – 44.4Cr (Hit)

July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 43.8 – 45.9Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 7.0 – 7.6Cr (Flop)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Jashnn : 1.8 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Luck : 21.5 – 22.8Cr (Flop)
Love Aaj Kal : 63.6 – 66.0Cr (Hit)

August 2009
Agyaat : 5.1 – 5.4Cr (Flop)
Teree Sang : 1.7 – 1.9Cr (Flop)
Life Partner : 21.6 – 23.8Cr (Above Average)
Kaminey : 42.9 – 44.7Cr (Above Average)
Shadow : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Sikander : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Daddy Cool : 3.6 – 3.9Cr (Flop)
Kissan : 1.2 – 1.4Cr (Flop)

September 2009
Fox : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Aagey Se Right : 2.9 – 3.1Cr (Flop)
Three : 0.7 – 0.8Cr (Flop)
Vada Raha : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Baabarr : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Wanted : 55.8 – 58.9Cr (Hit)
Dil Bole Hadippa! : 20.0 – 22.5Cr (Flop)
What’s Your Raashee? : 13.2 – 15.3Cr (Flop)

October 2009
Wake Up Sid : 25.0 – 25.9Cr (Above Average)
Do Knot Disturb : 16.7 – 18.0Cr (Flop)
Acid Factory : 2.8 – 3.0Cr (Flop)
Blue : 30.5 – 32.5Cr (Good Opening Week)
All The Best : 24.0 – 25.0Cr (Good Opening Week)
Main Aurr Mrs Khanna : 7.0 – 7.5Cr (Disastrous Opening Week)

31 Responses to “JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Mixed Response To Diwali Releases”

  1. The Blue collections are nearly impossible to work with. A quick comparison with Kambakht Ishq showed it is lagging slightly hence have gone with 30.5-32.5Cr. But really, there is little to go on.

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    • yes true.. on ATB this film will have to remain extremely stable to get to a very significant total. Might have really profited without Blue. WUS meanwhile will find it hard to get to 30 crores given that something or the other is now releasing every week.

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    • on the other hand with such an extraordinary turnaround it might do quite a bit (ATB).

      On another note London Dreams is now looking increasingly safe. Vipul hasn’t delivered less than a plus film yet. And there seems to be enough comedy here, the soundtrack has its moments. Asin I think really lifts up this sort of thing. Specially with heroes who are older. She has a certain spark that somehow seems more evident in Hindi cinema than it was in Tamil films (though she’s been very successful there as well). The lack of ‘real’ star-heroines in Hindi cinema perhaps accounts for this.

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  2. I was always sure LD will be fine.
    Asin looks great in promo.

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  3. ATB is a genuine success. Regardless of the final figures, this movie has been accepted. Came with little fanfare, low expectations, started poorly and has seen a remarkable turnaround. And 40 crores in two weeks is nothing to scoff at.

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  4. Vipul sure has plus record but only with Akki. Songs and teasers seem to be giving cold vibes. Asin deserves better than Salman…
    “I was always sure LD will be fine”. When was it release???

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  5. Was just pulling legs! Still my doubts are intact.

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  6. BOI:

    Blue Falls Badly In Second Weekend

    Monday 26th October 2009 11.30 IST

    Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

    Blue has fallen badly in week two with nett business of around 6.25 crore. Saturday was lower than Friday and Sunday did not show the sort of jump that films normally show on Sunday.

    Friday was around 2 crore nett, Saturday was 1.75 crore nett and Sunday did around 2.25 crore nett. The second week looks like being around 9 crore nett and the film is likely to finish with 44-45 crore nett business including the Telugu version.

    Overall the film will emerge an Average fare in India.

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  7. NY Times:

    October 26, 2009
    Film on a Tiny Budget Earns Big Money
    By MICHAEL CIEPLY

    LOS ANGELES — As bloodsuckers, crazed killers and things that go bump in the night crammed the weekend box office, Paramount Pictures claimed the top spot with its microscopic-budget “Paranormal Activity,” which took in $22 million and continued to build audience momentum.

    “Paranormal Activity,” an independently produced thriller picked up by Paramount’s DreamWorks unit, cost only about $10,000 to produce and has been marketed with a combination of conventional advertising and cheap Web-based tactics. After a little more than a month in theaters, it has taken in about $62.5 million and appears poised to become a blockbuster on the order of “The Blair Witch Project” or “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” — tiny films that took in hundreds of millions of dollars at the worldwide box office.

    Paramount’s good luck came at the expense of Lionsgate, whose “Saw VI” placed second for the weekend in North American theaters, with just $14.8 million in ticket sales.

    It was by far the weakest opening for any of the films in the torture-tinged franchise that began with “Saw,” which had about $18.3 million in ticket sales on its late-October opening weekend in 2004 and went on to take in about $55.2 million at the domestic box office.

    The “Saw” series peaked with its second entry, which opened to about $31.7 million in ticket sales in 2005 and had about $87 million in total sales. Later films in the series had similarly strong openings, but less total business as the audience shifted toward other sensations.

    With Halloween approaching, studios have been pushing a range of scary fare. On the more sophisticated side, “Where the Wild Things Are,” an adaptation of Maurice Sendak’s monster-filled children’s book, placed third for Warner Brothers and Legendary Pictures. In its second weekend, the film had $14.2 million in ticket sales, for a total of about $54 million.

    Other fright-fests included “The Stepfather,” from Sony Pictures Entertainment’s Screen Gems division, which placed seventh with $6.5 million in ticket sales for the weekend and a total of about $20.4 million; “Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant,” which placed eighth, with $6.4 million in ticket sales for Universal Pictures; and “Zombieland,” which placed 10th for Sony’s Columbia Pictures unit, with $4.3 million in sales for the weekend, and a total of about $67.3 million.

    Total ticket sales for the weekend were about $121 million, down about 9.3 percent from $133.4 million last year, according to Hollywood.com Box-Office. Domestic box-office revenue is about $8.4 billion so far this year, up about 7.7 percent from about $7.8 billion at the same point last year, Hollywood.com said.

    In a welcome sign for Overture Films, “Law Abiding Citizen,” which placed fourth for the weekend, took in about $12.7 million, for a total of $40.3 million since its release. That made it the highest-grossing film — just ahead of “Righteous Kill,” which took in $40 million last year — from this relatively young distributor, which is a unit of Liberty Media.

    The No. 5 film for the weekend was “Couples Retreat,” a comedy that took in $11.1 million for Universal in its third weekend, for a total of about $78.2 million in domestic ticket sales. “Astro Boy,” an animated adventure from Summit Entertainment, placed sixth, with about $7 million in sales, while “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs,” an animated film from Sony, took in $5.6 million for a total of about $115.2 million in ticket sales.

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  8. All of Jay’s box office columns are not permanently available in the sidebar..

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  9. BoC:

    All The Best holds fort at Indian box office

    MUMBAI: Diwali release All The Best has held its ground at the box office. The movie, which did a net business of approximately Rs 220 million (Rs 22 crore) in its first week, has done a net business of Rs 100 million (Rs 10 crore) in its second weekend.

    While the two films that released over the weekend Fruit N Nut and Bal Ganesh, have been a complete wash out, All The Best picked up over the week and has been the highest grosser of the week.

    Some of the multiplexes have had to cancel their shows of Fruit N Nut and Bal Ganesh because of below average occupancy, multiplexes are now looking forward to the two big releases – London Dreams and Aladin, which are slated to release in the coming week.

    Speaking to Businessofcinema.com Fun Cinemas chief operating officer Vishal Kapur said, “Both Fruit N Nut and Bal Ganesh have done very badly with most of the morning shows getting cancelled. Blue is still doing average with around 25 – 30 per cent occupancy, while All The Best has picked up over the week and has done fairly well. We are now looking forward to London Dreams and Aladin.”

    PVR Cinemas programming head Prakhar Joshi added, “The collections of Bal Ganesh was average on Friday but Fruit N Nut has not fared well at all. All the Best has picked up and should still hold for another week till London Dreams and Aladin release. I am very positive about London Dreams because it looks good and I think it will rock. Aladin too looks like a good film. Both the films should do well.”

    “Bal Ganesh has had an average opening and it might pick up over the weekend since the kids have liked the film but Fruit N Nut has had below average opening. All the Best has brought in about 75 per cent of the collections while Blue is not doing that good. Aladin and London dreams look positive to me and I am looking forward to the release,” said Cinemax senior vice president strategy Devang Sampat.

    Inox vice president programming and distribution Utpal Acharya said, “Bal Ganesh and Fruit N Nut have been as good as no release, All the Best is still going strong with some of the weekend shows running to full houses. Next week’s release London Dreams looks good, according to me it will be the commercial hit of the year, Aladin too looks interesting and the younger generation will surely enjoy the film.”

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  10. BOI have given Blue just 30.5 crores for week 1, if true this makes it a worse tank than KI.

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  11. Blue had sanjay dutt as lead role.But AKshay pulled the film this much is good enough.De dana dan,action replay should be huge hits.

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  12. IBOS:

    Box Office: Aladin looks to tower over London’s Dreams
    Thursday, October 29, 2009

    Two weeks in and the results on the Holiday weekend of the year clash, the Diwali clash of Blue, All the Best, and Mr aur Mrs Khanna are out; and has been reported right from Day 1 on IBOS, All the Best has separated itself from contender (Blue) and pretender (MAMK) by a wide margin. With some help from Sanjay Dutt, Fardeen Khan and Bipasha Basu, the Ajay Devgan produced and starrer comedy is another ‘No Entry’ of 2009. The film is headed for a 50 crores+ triumph even though it was pipped to be the last of the 3 major films released. Incidentally No Entry also had Bipasha Basu and Fardeen Khan for support, something the future casting directors could keep in mind.

    Next comes Blue which will not be able to recover its reported 80-100 crore investment by any stretch and is headed for box office flop status. The sobering fact that the opening though good wasn’t anywhere near recordbreaking despite Diwali opportunity, and after Kambakth Ishq also faring below expectations, Blue tapering out is a major dampener for Akshay Kumar though his next D3 with Priyadarshan is promising and may improve the year for him.

    Coming in last after opening last was the Salman Khan-Kareena Kapoor saga, Mr. aur Mrs. Khanna which, opened at 10-15% and finished worst also, is one of the biggest disasters in recent times. Salman Khan is back again with a double hero London Dreams.

    Which brings to the current week. So far, the advance for London Dreams has opened to an ok advance response of 20% or so in India while it’s expected to fare better in UK etc. for obvious reasons. In India, the film will open better than Main aurr Mrs. Khanna on Friday as the promos have registered better and the volume of screenings are higher. But for a film earlier reported on terms such as 120 crores for distribution acquisition by Studio 18 earlier, this is a problem. And in major portions of the country, it may eventually get overrun by competition from the Amitabh Bachchan starrer Aladin, whose advance has opened on par with or ahead of London Dreams in India despite fewer screenings, with early lead in Bengal and South. Though for some reason, it took many theaters a while to figure out schedules, and neither film has posted a spectacular advance as the films’ promoters would have liked. In case of Aladin there have been two problems. One, the actor playing title role, Ritesh Deshmukh, is not a box office star per say, which may mislead potential casual viewers seeing posters into thinking Aladin is a Ritesh Deshmukh film with others merely supporting or special appearances. Secondly, Arabian Fantasy tales are not exactly box office gold as a genre in India. However the actual reports on the film itself are very strong from the industry insiders who have seen the film in previews. The insiders are confident of the film.

    The USP of Aladin is Bachchan supposedly in a one-man-show do-it-all mode, not witnessed too much this decade. Last example probably being Dashrath Singh in Bunty&Babli (though BnB had a spectacular advance). Opposite him will be Sanjay Dutt as the nemesis/villain which can emerge a powerful combination at the box office. Ritesh Deshmukh is not a box office star per say but his performance is also being billed as one of the highlights. The USP of London Dreams on the other hand, is the HDDCS Ajay Devgan-Salman Khan duo, without Aishwarya Rai, but with the theme of ‘Rock On’.

    Reports on London Dreams are decent and its marketing promotion is near maximum so it is possible the film could open better than its advance is indicating but a huge opening is ruled out . It is also possible if word of mouth is strong, both London Dreams and Aladin could end up successful. Though unlikely, it has happened in the past where two movies do well simultaneously, for instance in 2001 Sunny Deol’s Gadar beat Aamir Khan starrer Lagaan in opening week and overall, but Lagaan too was a Hit. The same happened with Dil and Ghayal in 1990, and Welcome and Taare Zameen Par in 2007.

    However the current status is that though advance for London Dreams had opened earlier and on more allocated screens, rate of bookings for Aladin overall nationally are running on par or higher. And both movies are counting on a quick pickup to be witnessed from Friday evening onwards.

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  13. Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

    London Dreams advance can be called fair at best in multiplexes and single screens have had similar response. London Dreams is carrying good pre-release reports and the feeling in the trade is that the film should pick up over the weekend.

    Aladin has a poor advance and is heading for a very poor start despite being a big budget star studded film. The promotion has not had the desired affect.

    Both films will have an added advantage of a holiday on Monday as it is Guru Nanak Jayanti.

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  14. BOI:

    London Dreams has shown improvement in business at multiplexes. The afternoon and early evening shows are are around 50-55% while late evening and night shows should be even better at around 65-70%. The jump is not huge but its a steady improvement as the day goes on.

    Single screens are not fairing as well and will finish the day at around 40-45%. The first day all India average will be around 55-60% mark which will mean an average first day.

    Aladin has seen awful collections all day in the 10-20% mark on limited showings. The film will turn out a huge disaster unless there is a big turnaround quickly.

    Earlier in the day

    The new releases of the week both of them which are big budget films started on a dull note.

    London Dreams had a 30-40% start in the morning shows and improved around 5-10% in the late morning shows. If the film can show bigger improvement in the late afternoon and evening shows then it would be a good sign for weekend business. London Dreams has a huge a single screen releases and around 8-10-12 show release at multiplex

    Aladin opened to an extremely dull response of 10-15% and will need to show huge improvement if it is to make any impact at the box office. The film has 4-6 shows at multiplexes.

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  15. BoC:

    London Dreams opens better than Aladin at box office

    MUMBAI: Two big movies – Vipul Shah’s London Dreams and Eros International’s Aladin clashed at the box office this week.

    While London Dreams opened to approximately 35 per cent occupancy, Aladin had a poor start with about 15 – 20 per cent occupancy across multiplexes in the morning shows.

    However, London Dreams picked up during the afternoon and evening shows with 55 per cent occupancy in multiplexes. While the single screens have shown drastic improvement in box office collections for a handful of recent films, London Dreams saw occupancy of approximately 40 per cent.

    While London Dreams stars Salman Khan, Ajay Devgn and Asin, Aladin has Amitabh Bachchan and Ritiesh Deshmukh. Both movies have high costs attached to it especially with the latter being VFX heavy. The weekend performance will give a clearer picture on the fate of both movies.

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