JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – All The Best Holds Steady; Blue Underperforms Massively

New Releases

Fruit & Nut

Fruit & Nut starring Boman Irani posted inconsequential collections in the range of 0.3-0.4Cr and is a likely flop considering the opposition this week. With weak promotion and weak post release reports, the box office collections do not come as a surprise.

Past Releases

All The Best

All The Best recorded a rock steady second week at the box office.

Week 1 All The Best [ATB] vs Week 2 All The Best [ATB]
39% Mumbai means ATB fell by 39% in Mumbai in Week 2

Mumbai 39%
Ahmedabad 60%
Sangli -263%
Gandhinagar 68%
Naroda 47%
Baroda 50%
Surat 46%
Anand 49%
Bharuch 54%
Nadiad 46%
Vapi 67%
Mehsana 71%
Palanpur 48%
Mahuva 64%
Navsari 28%
Ankleshwar 54%
Siddpur 63%
Visnagar 38%
Cambay 49%
Bardoli 57%
Rajkot 60%
Mahuva 83%
Bhavnagar 47%
Himmatnagar 71%
Kalol 82%
Patan -2%
Modasa 50%
Pune 43%
Goa 68%
Kolhapur 28%
Solapur 54%
Sangli 49%
Nasik 63%
Gurgaon 79%
Faridabad 14%
Nagpur -67%
Raipur 10%
Indore 54%
Ujjain 46%
Sehore 12%
Jaipur 16%
Kolkatta -462%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 46%

All The Best held steady especially in Mumbai. The second week collections around the country were encouraging with many centres recording less than industry average falls.

ATB Week 1 total for the above centres = 11.98Cr (ignoring 8 centres)
ATB Week 2 total for the above centres = 6.44Cr (ignoring 8 centres)

This means that ATB’s Week 2 total is 54% of ATB’s Week 1 total (6.44/11.98 = 54%)

Using ATB’s Week 1 Total of 24.0-25.0Cr, ATB’s Week 2 Total = 54% * (24.0-15.0) = 12.9-13.4Cr

All The Best 2 Week Total = 24.0-25.0Cr(Week 1) + 12.9-13.4Cr(Week 2) = 36.9 – 38.4Cr

Verdict – Above Average

With big competition in the first week, All The Best’s 35Cr+ total after two weeks is a commendable effort. The second week especially is solid and the film should reach 45Cr+ with comfort from here on. Overall the film has met a positive response at the box office but could be considered a missed opportunity had it had a clearer run. The film continues the success of the team who gave Golmaal Returns last year – Ajay Devgan and Rohit Shetty.

Blue

Blue as expected fell huge in the second week. The collections are extremely poor all over with 7.9-8.5Cr collected after a fall of around 75% across India. The Akshay Kumar, Sanjay Dutt and Lara Dutta starrer is a below average performer on the strength of a solid first week performance and total collections of around 38.4-41.0Cr. The collections and pattern of trend are exactly like Kambakht Ishq earlier this year.

Main Aurr Mrs Khanna

Main Aurr Mrs Khanna did not post a miracle in the second week after a gargantuan fall of around 95% across India. Collecting a mere 0.3-0.4Cr, Main Aurr Mrs Khanna’s two week collections are a disastrous 7.3-7.9Cr.

Wake Up Sid

Ranbir Kapoor starrer Wake Up Sid made up for its blip last week with higher collections then its third week. Adding a further 1.6-1.7Cr to the total, Wake Up Sid is now a semi-hit in India with collections of 27.2-28.2Cr and should end up a 30Cr bracket grosser.

[Note adjusted WUS third week total from 0.6-0.7Cr to 1.2-1.3Cr]

January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)

February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)

March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)

April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)

June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 42.5 – 44.4Cr (Hit)

July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 43.8 – 45.9Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 7.0 – 7.6Cr (Flop)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Jashnn : 1.8 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Luck : 21.5 – 22.8Cr (Flop)
Love Aaj Kal : 63.6 – 66.0Cr (Hit)

August 2009
Agyaat : 5.1 – 5.4Cr (Flop)
Teree Sang : 1.7 – 1.9Cr (Flop)
Life Partner : 21.6 – 23.8Cr (Above Average)
Kaminey : 42.9 – 44.7Cr (Above Average)
Shadow : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Sikander : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Daddy Cool : 3.6 – 3.9Cr (Flop)
Kissan : 1.2 – 1.4Cr (Flop)

September 2009
Fox : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Aagey Se Right : 2.9 – 3.1Cr (Flop)
Three : 0.7 – 0.8Cr (Flop)
Vada Raha : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Baabarr : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Wanted : 55.8 – 58.9Cr (Hit)
Dil Bole Hadippa! : 20.0 – 22.5Cr (Flop)
What’s Your Raashee? : 13.2 – 15.3Cr (Flop)

October 2009
Wake Up Sid : 27.2 – 28.2Cr (Semi-Hit)
Do Knot Disturb : 16.7 – 18.0Cr (Flop)
Acid Factory : 2.8 – 3.0Cr (Flop)
Blue : 38.4 – 41.0Cr (Below Average)
All The Best : 36.9 – 38.4Cr (Above Average)
Main Aurr Mrs Khanna : 7.3 – 7.9Cr (Disaster)
Fruit & Nut : 0.3 – 0.4Cr (Poor Opening)

195 Responses to “JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – All The Best Holds Steady; Blue Underperforms Massively”

  1. Akshay is now getting boring with huge openings and then a complete fizzling out. ATB has posted a very strong performance. Rohit Shetty is the new Dhavan.
    LD is going to be below average.

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  2. Neha Sharma Says:

    It’s a shame that the upcoming seemingly good films like London Dreams(released),APKGK,Jail,Tum Mile,Kurbaan and DDD are all going to eat into each other’s business big time given that all are releasing back to back in successive weeks.It has started with WUS and ATB;WUS is a nice young film and ATB is a well-made comic caper but unfortunately none of ’em are emerging HITs.The same holds for London Dreams which has Salman and Ajay showcasing brilliant performances.Though the film has started slow,it surely looks like picking like ATB in the course of the week.But sadly it has just one week to gross as much as it has to as both Ajab Prem and Jail are generating a good buzz it seems.Hence,London Dreams too seems to miss out on the hit tag even if it shows improvement.As the year 2009 suggests,it’s been more about average-above average-semi hit stuffs so far(Raaz 2,Dev D,Kaminey,WUS,ATB) and looks like more are due to come.Only LAK,Wanted and New York have turned out as clean HITs.I wonder how many more clean HITs we’re getting this year barring 3 Idiots of course.My bets are on APKGK and DDD.I am very looking forward to Tum Mile though and hope it does well.Kurbaan will do well for itself in week 1 but DDD will devour a chunk of its business for sure. Akshay is coming back with DDD I think.After all,the film has fetched indian theatrical rights of just 30 crore so looks like another Welcome in the offering.

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    • The early year delays is probably the main reason for this. I’m guessing a few of the movies releasing now would have done so a couple of months back, and those releasing a couple of months back wanted to release even earlier. Its stupid business sense to give your film one or two weeks at cinemas before other big movie releases. And I just don’t understand the real urge to release most biggies between october-december. Sure its a festive period, but whats the point if so many movies release.

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  3. On a different note, I think this weekly BO column, has acquired considerable credibility amongst the fair and the non fanatics and the words’ Jayshah’s Saturday Box Office Column have a ring of authority to them..

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  4. OT;
    Just saw some clips of Ajab Prem and have to say regardless of the views regarding the level of talent/ interest generated/ability to surprise, Ranbir looks effortlessly comfortable and LIKEABLE in main stream stuff. More so for someone so green. More than anybody in recent memory.

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  5. The Diwali releases were a ginermous disappointment. So much hyped was flushed down the toilet. It was a massive mistake for 3 big budget movies to premiere on same holiday weekend. MAMK is a disaster. Blue is below average or flop. ATB has done the best with being above average and steady But ATB would have easily already nicked hit status if they 3 way clash has not happened.

    DDD will probably be very big for Akki. But it won’t salvage his year or the beating that his brand value at the box office has taken this year with all of his movies thus far flopping or being below average. I also think its a bloody shame that the upcoming movies will eat into each others box office quite a bit because of the back to back releases. LD will end up being only below average or average at the box office. While Aladin will be a failure. The strike has been vastly detrimental this year. I have never seen a few movies that have been clean hits in a year. Or even worse seen so many movies cack out and bomb in overseas markets. The overseas markets has not been kind and out right ice cold to the majority of Bollywood movies this year.

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    • If Aladin will be a failure, then it’s a huge disappointment for someone like Sujoy Ghosh. I don’t know why it took him four years since Home Delivery to come out with another movie anyway. It’s funny how some of these directors only have one decent movie in them (like Jhankaar Beats) and then that is it, they have run out of creative steam. They don’t have the energy or the passion to carry on making as many films as they want to. It’s like they just wither away…

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  6. I agree. I still feel they would have retained Paa release Nov14 or move it to next year. There are two movies every week.

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  7. Yippeee.. Yankees win again! Real entertainer today..

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  8. BOI:

    London Dreams Collects 15 Crore Nett Over Weekend

    Monday 2nd November 2009 14.30 IST

    Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

    London Dreams collected a decent 15 crore nett approx over its first weekend. The approx breakdowns were 4.25 crore on Friday, 3.75 crore on Saturday and a very good 7 crore on Sunday.

    The collections showed a slight dip on Saturday as there was a big cricket match going on. The collections should be good on Monday as it is a holiday but there is also opposition from another big cricket match which will make collections lower than they normally would be on a holiday.

    London Dreams will probably do around 25-30 crore nett business over its first week depending on how strong the holiday Monday is and how collections fare afterwards.

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  9. IBOS:

    BO Update: Aladin little pickup, LD Salman Khan’s 2nd flop
    Monday, November 02, 2009

    Word of Mouth is not the way to go to register huge box office these days. Two films which opened poorly on Friday: London Dreams and Aladin are finding that out. The Amitabh Bachchan backed Arabian-inspired Aladin had a poor opening on Friday as low as 10% in some places. The same by Saturday were about 20% and on Sunday 30%, that is to say there was a day to day increase over the weekend but because of low screening volumes such increases do not a blockbuster make. Fantasy movies need to open with a certain critical mass, and Aladin, be it due to the Arabian Nights title/genre, or the cast combination; didn’t quite get the people to wonder about it. Atleast not in India. And the word of mouth, while better than critics, is not intense enough. Unlike the contemporary London Dreams, which has 2 name stars and a glamorous heroine in Asin, Aladin basically was counting on Amitabh Bachchan for box office viability as the title role holder Ritesh Deshmukh is not a name draw at a practical level at the Indian box office counters. Nonetheless, Bachchan in the past, even in this decade has delivered some solid openings on his own (Black, Cheeni Kum) without having promoted a film of his own as much as Aladin. So Bachchan has to be wondering about how much water ‘Brand Bachchan’ is in nowadays also. As this was essentially the first ‘amitabh’ release post Sarkar Raj in 2008 (costarring Abhishek Bachchan and Aishwarya Rai), discounting Big Boss 3 the past few weeks. Sarkar Raj was not a flop but didn’t create the buzz of the Mumbai record breaking opener Sarkar I and did just tad more business than Bachchan’s title role above average grosser Bhootnath. It will be interesting to see if Aladin can match Bhoot Nath in the end. Right now it appears Bhootnath will be the higher grosser in this genre.

    The other release of last week, the Ajay Devgan-Salman Khan starrer London Dreams meanwhile is finding itself ultimately in a sinking boat despite much better critics’ articles and wider screenings (twice as many allocated screenings as Aladin in many cases). Yet Dreams opened only around 20% on Friday and was hovering around 35% on Sunday before falling back down again on Monday. It is headed to be Salman Khan’s 2nd flop after MAMK this month and a streak ender for Ajay Devgan and Asin after huge debut in Ghajini. It has performed unimpressively overseas as well. The film that was once billed at 120 crores distribution deal for Studio 18, is going to be a huge loser unless collections pick up dramatically. To put this in perspective, while Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam was aiming for the Bombay opening record (before HKK & HSSH) in 1999, this one may be competing with Mr. and Mrs. Khanna and Yuvraaj in the end.

    Likely soon both of these films will be replaced by Ranbir Kapoor-Katrina Kaif’s Ajab Prem Ki Ghajab Kahani under Raj Kumar Santoshi, coming up this week with hit music and some novel visuals on Nov 6th. Also releasing is Madhur Bhandarkar’s Jail on the same weekend.

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  10. some IBOS numbers:

    MAMK at 5.8 crores (!)
    WUS — 26.6 crores
    ATB — 38.6 crores
    Blue — 34.7 crores

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    • BOI have Blue at 38 crores, MAMK at 7.9 crores, ATB at 36.7 crores, WUS at 27.4 crores.

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      • LOL – split the difference to come up with the average number.

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      • It really is incredible how little money Mrs. Khanna has made.

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        • In absolute terms it’s made in 2009 only as much as UJ made in 2006! A much more multiplex friendly subject couldn’t do better than this!

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          • Umrao Jaan was a much better movie than MAMK. Were you referring to MAMK when you talked about a “much more multiplex friendly subject”? If so, what makes you think MAMK is “multiplex friendly”?

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        • It’s not at all incredible if you have seen the movie. It was very poorly written and directed, and, barring Salman and Kareena, poorly acted as well. It’s a total mess, and the audience has shown its good judgment in rejecting it.

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          • I have seen it sm, and while it’s a crappy film, IMO it is way better than many more successful films. I would take Mrs. Khanna over the likes of Kambakht Ishq or comedies like that anyday.

            The biggest problem with Mrs. Khanna was that it was really flat, a better director would have done more with this material.

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          • Yes, Qalandar, I agree that MAMK had the potential to be a very good film.

            As to its being better than the likes of Kambhaqt Ishq, that may be true, but I suppose it demonstrates the advantage of hype over substance and/or the weakened credibility Salman has compared to Akshay with his series of what his fans call “charity films.” I don’t agree with Satyam that it is a multiplex friendly film, though. In order to be a good film, it would have had to have been an in-depth examination of the complexities of marriage and attraction between men and women, and, from what I can judge, such a serious treatment spells multiplex death right now.

            I am still flabbergasted that you saw it! What made you seek it out, or did you see it on TV? (even then, since it was on pay per view, I am still surprised you would pay to see it.)

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  11. BOI:

    Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani Takes Extraordinary Start

    Fridday 6th November 2009 13.00 IST

    Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani has taken an extraordinary start all over India at multiplexes. The film was expected to open but its opening has surpassed all expectations.

    The figures at some multiplexes for morning shows are on par with Love Aaj Kal which is the biggest opener at multiplexes in 2009. The single screens in the big cities have also seen big numbers.

    The opening is like a major film from one of the big five actors and no doubt the biggest opening of Ranbir Kapoor’s career.

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    • BOI continuing to pump this one (they’ve decided it’s final fate a few hours into release!):

      Ajab In Overdrive Jail Starts Poorly

      Friday 6th November 2009 19.00 IST

      Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

      Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani shook the trade with a huge opening this morning and was showing 90% plus collections at many multiplexes in the late evening shows. Single screens were also very good at 60% plus.

      The morning shows at multiplexes are normally a bit slow on the first day but Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani came out of the traps on fire with 75% collections. The reports are mixed with the youth likely to take to it while other segments of the audience may not like it. But even still the film is a sure shot winner as the film does not have huge costs and the opening is like a big budget star studded film.

      Jail got sidelined in the wake of Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani and opened to around 25-30% collections. The film will have to improve its performance over the weekend and is likely to do its best business in Mumbai circuit.

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  12. Bollybusiness calling a 23.5 crore week 1 for London Dreams and predicting not more than 35 crores in the end.

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    • BOI earlier suggested it was falling all through the week and would also do something around 23 crores.

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      • London Dreams seems to have been really hit badly because of the cricket series. Despite the bad reviews, it had picked up on the weekend when there wasn’t a cricket match, and had good word of mouth.

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  13. http://www.thefilmstreetjournal.com/2009/11/it%E2%80%99s-a-hit-oh-no-it%E2%80%99s-a-flop/

    Nahata ripping Akshay here. My response:

    ‘why does Nahata take days and weeks to understand about BnB and Munnabhai and RDB (and others) what others comprehend in three hours?’

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  14. BoC:

    Ajab Prem.. is Ranbir’s biggest opening; Jail disappoints

    MUMBAI: Rajkumar Santoshi’s Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani (APKGK) has given actor Ranbir Kapoor his biggest opening day collections so far.

    By the end of its first day, the collections of the movie were almost at par with Imtiaz Ali’s Love Aaj Kal starring Saif Ali Khan. While LAK took in opening day collections of Rs 80 million (Rs 8 crore) with average occupancy of 85 – 90 per cent across multiplexes, APKGK’s average occupancy has been between 85 – 90 per cent. On the other hand, occupancy at single screen was approximately 60 – 65 per cent. Pertinent to note here is that the number of shows that LAK opened with was much higher than that of AGPGK.

    According to estimates, in its opening weekend, APKGK is expected to cross the Rs 200 million (Rs 20 crore) mark. As was earlier reported by Businessofcinema.com Love Aaj Kal did a net business of Rs 270 million (Rs 27 crore) in its opening weekend.

    Compared to APKGK, the other release this week – Madhur Bhandarka’s Jail starring Neil Nitin Mukesh – opened to poor collections. The movie’s occupancy at multiplexes was about 30 per cent. However, it remains to be seen how Jail fares over the next two days.

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    • If it is indeed a 20 crore weekend anything less than 30 crores would be disappointing at the end of the week. However if it does reach this figure it will have equaled the entire run of WUS in one week.

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  15. B.O. update: ‘Ajab’ takes ghazab start; ‘Jail’ gets sidelined

    AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI took the nation by storm by fetching one of the biggest starts at the box-office. The start was at par with LOVE AAJ KAL at several screens, although LAK had more shows than APKGK, since LONDON DREAMS has retained some screens, while JAIL, the other new release, has also opened quite wide.

    The trends were evident on Thursday night itself, when the paid previews of AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI were held. The response was fantastic. The early morning shows opened to an overwhelming response and the film was maintaining the tempo during the subsequent shows. The opening is at par with any superstar’s film, the various distributors/exhibitors this writer spoke to, echoed in unison.

    The youth has taken to AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI in a big way and the first weekend numbers of the film should be incredible. It’s easily Ranbir Kapoor’s biggest opener to date and catapults him to the ‘Prime Club’. Besides, the Ranbir – Katrina jodi seems to be the new flavour of the season. Rajkumar Santoshi too has bounced back with renewed vigour, while Ramesh Taurani, its producer, has yet another Hit to his credit.

    On the other hand, JAIL has been sidelined due to the AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI wave. The film carries favourable reports, so let’s hope its numbers show a jump on Saturday and Sunday

    http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/boxoffice_update/index.html

    Sounds like Ranbir finally got the big opening!

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  16. SM: the previews of MAMK made it look totally multiplex..

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    • Satyam, there are a number of terms used frequently here which I have a hard time understanding. You have devoted a detailed post to the discussion of “masala” cinema without ever defining it rigorously, except by example, so that if one hasn’t seen those films, one is just as perplexed as ever. Now I find these terms “multiplex film” and “prestige film” equally puzzling. Would you mind devoting a post to defining these two terms as well? I would appreciate it greatly.

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  17. At last the audience gives in to the media hyperbole.

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  18. IBOS:

    Box Office: Prem Ki Naiyya Ram Ke Bharose; Jail encashment
    Friday, November 06, 2009

    The early first week figures of Aladin and London dreams are indicating a no-go Rs. 5-6 crores net week for the Arabian-borrowed fantasy and a losing 16-17 crore net for the latter contemporary multistarrer featuring the Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam combo. And the 2nd week opening Friday collections are nearly non-existent for both. Indicating the total gross of the two films will be 50 crores against a cost of production of atleast 100 crores (Aladin 40 crores, London Dreams 60 crores+). Major losses in all sectors here.

    Keeping the unstability of returns in mind, Amitabh Bachchan’s ABCorp has an econcomical 15 crore production titled ‘PAA’ coming out in 3 weeks on December 4th, and he’s counting on Abhishek Bachchan and Vidya Balan as his lucky mascots along with his director R. Balkrishnan who made with the actor his last solo hit, Cheeni Kum in 2007. Incidentally ‘PAA’ will be the first home production of Abhishek Bachchan’s career. The actor was launched in 2000 by JP Dutta’s production company not AB Corp.

    Salman Khan has releases coming up in Veer and supposedly Tom and Jerry. Ajay Devgan who recently celebrated Diwali box office success of All The Best despite going up against Blue and Mr. Aur Mrs. Khanna, will move towards Toonpur Ka superhero and Prakash Jha’s Rajneeti, both releasing in 2010.

    Meanwhile this week, Madhur Bhandarkar’s Jail starring Neil Nitin Mukesh has released to a more niche audience and screenings are accordingly so. The opening response is subpar at around 20-25% and film will look for word of mouth to sustain its chances.

    On the other end, Raj Kumar Santoshi is looking to strike box office gold after a long time. And if the opening for his Ranbir Kapoor-Katrina Kaif starrer Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani is to go by, the answer seems to be a may-be as of now. The advance for APKGK was around 50% on opening Friday, and the film on morning opened around 70-75% which is actually good.

    Ranbir Kapoor may be heading for his 2nd success of the year if the collections percolate up from this opening. The film has opened best in Bombay and North. Santoshi’s last decent grosser was Khakee in 2004 which netted about Rs. 26 crores then, and last comic hit was Andaz Apna Apna (Salman Khan-Aamir Khan) in 1994 which netted over 1 crore per territory or about Rs 5 crores all over India in 1994. Katrina Kaif has had a downer recently in Blue but as lead heroine of APKGK, if the film sustains she’ll have luck shining once more as her upcoming starrer De Dhana Dhan opposite Akshay Kumar again is expected to be solid commercial entertainer and expected to take a good opening.

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  19. http://www.livemint.com/articles/2009/09/03200533/Hollywood8217s-interest-gro.html

    It looks like Magadheera is second only to Ghajini in terms of distributor share.

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      • This means there is a lot more potential in the hindi market that needs to be tapped. We haven’t really seen a Sholay/HAHK kind of deal in Hindi this decade. If that happens, sky is the limit.

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        • Yes precisely the point I’ve always made. It doesn’t have to be Sholay or HAHK. I do believe though that 100 crore grosses could be more common. I think Ghajini had it been loved by the multiplex audience (it was liked here not loved and certainly very few wanted repeats) would have done 130-140 crores. Because it was adored by single/double screens.

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  20. HT predicting a great opening but some claiming it won’t last beyond the initial:

    http://www.hindustantimes.com/Ajab-Prem-Ki-has-edge-over-Jail-on-first-day/H1-Article1-473776.aspx

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    • yes it has opened big but notice some of the slippage here:

      1)BOI claims it has less screenings than LAK other than the big three of Bombay, Delhi/UP an E Punjab. The last of this is a big territory only in the imagination of those at BOI! Forget being being, it is completely negligible to the overall gross of any film!

      2)Bombay is about 40% of the market. Delhi/UP is the next largest with of course Delhi City being the major player there. Once you take out these two you’re probably done with roughly 65-70% of the pie! LOL! And in the major southern cities like Hyderabad and Bangalore, the two that have significant grosses for Hindi films I’d be amazed if Ajab Prem.. has a lower number of screenings in the major multiplexes.

      All of this does not take away from the fact that this is a big opening. Just that BOI is heavily pumping this one and playing footloose with the facts as usual. But given those comparisons and the weekend opening the film is on pace to make 35-40 crores if it keeps this up. In other words if the week one number is then much lower it would suggest a serious drop after the weekend.

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  21. HT commentary is actually pathetic but it will be interesting to see how this holds up.

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  22. Lets just say I am a little more optimistic here and hope it is more like 45-50 crores by the end tho will defer to facts.

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    • 45 crores would be a good gross for this film. And certainly for your sake I hope the film makes out like bandit!

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      • satyam, what would u term this film as, if it makes 45 crore nett at the end of its run? what do u think will be its first week?

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        • I think if it does 25 in week 1 and goes upto 45 that would be good enough trending but then it would indicate a certain dropoff after the first weekend. Because if it has a really big opening then it should do at least 35 crores. If it does the latter however then it needs to do at least 55 crores, more likely 60 to be a reasonable trender. So here I am not even referring to doubling the initial in either scenario.

          But what the trade and the media do with films they support is that they first go hysterical on the opening. When the numbers reveal something else they pretend it’s still great which it is in many instances barring the weekend initial. You can’t say that a film was on course to make 40 crores, but only did 30 and this is good on its own because this indicates weakness in the film and post-weekend drops. WUS on the other hand trended well but it started off at a low base so one wondered why Ranbir couldn’t do better than Farhan Akhtar in Rock On, even accounting for genre.

          If APKGK is opening like LAK even in the loosest sense then it must live upto those sorts of standards. if Ranbir is star enough to get this initial he must be star enough to get the final gross. If he does both more power to him! I don’t have a horse in this either way! I am just arguing for consistency as I have forever including when Guru was releasing and I had the highest benchmarks in every sense.

          Here’s the thing, I am not too bothered about the media narrative, pernicious as its effects might be. I am interested in how big or not the star is based on the totality of things which includes genres attempted, box office results for each film, whether a star does better or worse relative to another star in a similar film, the quality of projects attracted so on and so forth. This is all vastly important in a contemporary age where ‘prestige’ has so much cache. For example Akshay is certifiably bigger in box office terms than Abhishek but if this does not help him get the sorts of projects that the latter does and which he certainly would like to do then both factors have to be accounted for. When SRK was big in the 90s he was getting Yashraj but also a Rathnam. Usually top stars in any age were able to run both ends of the divide. When this system got fractured, ‘Hollywoodized’ if you will, the terms of the debate change. Now the topmost star is really the one who can get enough box office success doing the ‘different’ and mixing it up with more regular fare (which for such a star is never as regular as it would be for a competitor.. Aamir is not very likely to do a Hey babyy or Dhoom or MHN irrespective of results). For the longest time Aamir is the only one who’s satisfied this criterion. Again such a star doesn’t need the biggest hits at all times, just successes (though Aamir of course also has the biggest of them all with Ghajini!). Having said all of this volume is a part of the mix and if Aamir had two films every single year there would be no debate from any quarters (though Ghajini has certainly made obvious to everyone what was always so to some of us here). But you have to in any case look at everything. It’s no more a simple box office deal. To be fair it never was this way. Rajesh Khanna did a Mukherjee as did Bachchan and these were iconic films in many instances. But in those days even middle cinema aimed for a universal audience.

          Like

  23. Nahata:

    [On the whole, Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani has taken a ghazab (terrific) start and will do very good business which will bring cheer to the exhibition and distribution trade, but the ajab (unusual) part is that it may still not see the produ­cers (who are also the all-world distributors) making a profit be­cause of the unjustified high cost (investment in making, marketing and releasing the film is more than Rs. 50 crore!). Rather, they may actually struggle to reach the finishing line, if at all.]

    Like

  24. Taran suggests ajab prem.. will be among the year’s top 3 grossers:

    http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/special_features/index.html

    Like

    • Ranbir has clearly arrived now, with such a huge opening and rather “unexpected” it puts him in the big league or at least Rocket Singh should affirm that. Judging by some of the estimates a 35-40Cr opening is possible which really is a big star opening.

      Like

  25. Ajab will open at 27-28 crores and do 45-46 crores.

    Like

  26. satyam,take a look at Aamir’s new photo from 3 Idiots.

    Like

  27. BOI:

    Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani has set the box office on fire as it massed a huge 25 crore nett over its first weekend. The film collected around 40 lakhs in paid previews. The Friday collection was 6.75 crore nett and Saturday picked up further with a huge total of 7.75 crore nett and then Sunday collected a humungous 10 core nett. It is the fifth film to have collected 10 crore nett in one day with Ghajini, Love Aaj Kal, Singh Is Kinng and Rab Ne Bana di Jodi achieving this feat on their respective first Sunday’s.

    The collection is amongst the top five ever for first weekend and similar to films like Singh is Kinng and Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi. The film is doing fantastic business all over India and some multiplexes have seen record weekend collections.

    Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Ki Kahani is certain to be a hit and may emerge a Super Hiit or Blockbuster as the youth have really taken to the film and weekdays should see good collections. The opening numbers have simply shaken the trade and taken Ranbir Kapoor into the top bracket which consisted of six stars prior to release of Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani. Also Raj Kumar Santoshi has his first hit since Ghatak in 1996.

    Like

    • Wow this is huge, and bollybusiness is reporting a very good monday. I was totally not expecting this considering the collections of WUS which was a big banner film. I saw the film and it was a good time pass, nothing more than that, in fact WUS was better than this, I just don’t understand why the audience is so excited about a Ranbir Kapoor film all of a sudden.

      Like

      • i think its d combination of ranbir nd katrina dat ppl were lookin forward to..d music worked nd ofcourse it was a rom- com..so i think all these factors combined worked 4 d film!!!

        Like

  28. wus is not a commercial fim.Its a multiplex film with some message.
    But APKGK is out and out comemrcial film.Hence this opening.

    Like

  29. I am not surprised atall by this film’s opening. even in sandy’s review I have said this on saturday morning itself that this film will be the biggest hit of this year, so far. whether 3I breaks it or not is another issue and I think that is the only film which has a chance to break this film’s record. not even rocket singh. my prediction is 35-40 crore opening for this movie and a final gross of 70crore+. the final gross will go down due to multiple films releasing in such a quick succession. otherwise has the potential to touch 80cr. Ranbir is in the top 4 for me if this film does that kind of business ahead of akshay and will overtake hrithik if rocket singh becomes a big hit aswell or kites underperforms.

    Like

    • I think this film reveals just how much potential 3I has. if 3I didn’t break every kind of opening record barring the Ghajini one I’d be surprised.

      I’ll say this even if APKGK does 80 crores, even if Rocket Singh is a hit there’s no way at all that he gets ahead of hrithik. The latter is his own worst enemy in some ways but Ranbir is not overtaking him anytime soon. Not by a long shot.

      Like

  30. Not bigger than hrithik now.Hrithik has some massive hits.Much depends on
    next year and whether rRnbir will live upto the expectations or not.
    But he has created buzz for his films now.

    Like

  31. I stand by what I have said. i didnt say he was bigger than hrithik at this moment.

    I find it surprising that satyam thinks ranbir cant beat hrithik.he for one has long mentioned how SRK has not patented his No.1 position and Aamir has to be considered to the top spot due to his performances. i totally agree with that. I have always said Aamir is ahead of SRK and thats why I like satyam. To put my argument forward I also say no one has patented their positions. In 2006 a lot of people including me thought that SRK was out of the race with his KANK and Don being average grossers and hrithik giving two of the top 3 films of that year along with LRM.that has put hrithik very close to the no.1 position. it cant be taken away from him easily but if he does so few films and if kites underperforms and guzarish does a sawariya then where would he be in popularity rankings at the end of 2010 or beginning of 2011. krish3 has not been announced yet and the only other film he would be doing a vishal bharadwaj film which has not made a commercial kill so far. I strongly feel kites would underperform, as anurag basu doing this kind of film with a non-Indian debutante actress along with a inconsequential kangana ranaut along with long lost touch of rajesh roshan music for a international musical film sounds like a clear danger sign for me. if rakesh has interfered a lot in this film that will only add to its miseries. on the other hand if APKGK makes 70crore plus + rocket singh becomes a hit and he has got plum projects in 2010 which will give him both critical and commercial success. a slew of big films would also have been announced by then as ranbir is not so ahy of announcing movies a s hrothik is. also it is always better to put money on young horses than old horses, though u cant discredit the performing old horses. I have therefore not touched on the 2 giant Khans.

    Like

    • My position on SRK has always been a lot more nuanced than that. It is also so on hrithik. I am not talking about a # 1 here. I am just suggesting that Ranbir will not get ahead of hrithik based on the current crop of films. I’d be surprised if he ever did to be quite honest.

      Like

    • Kites would be a big setback for sure since he’d be attempting his strength genre here. But it remains to be seen if this underperforms and by how much (sometimes an underperformance is more relevant to a star’s box office strength). Again the problem with Hrithik is volume and the extent to which he falls below the radar. He should be doing two films every year, not just once every 2-3 years! The issue is that we all accept him as a top star but that fact seems completely irrelevant to the overall discussion because he makes such rare appearances. It’s not even like Aamir’s low volume (though Aamir has been much more present in the last year or two in all sorts of ways) where there’s one film that then sets the terms of the debate, commercially or critically or both.

      by the way Ranbir to Hrithik is hardly like Aamir to SRK.

      Like

  32. sorry i missed your post on the other thread. it is absolutely right. at this moment hrithik and even akshay is too big for ranbir.but i can see a potential in this guy and i am saying if everything falls in place then he can unseat hrithik by the end of 2010. i know hrithik can open 50crore in 1stweek but where is that film in his strong genre. kites I dont think will do it nor will guzarish or VB film. krish 3 has to be announced soon isnt it which is the only film that can do 50crore opening. so how can we bet on hrithik at this stage to be in top 3 forever. I am giving him grace till 2010 anyway

    Like

  33. i think we are both on the same line. but only difference is future prediction and hedging bets. i put my money on ranbir and u are not putting money on him

    Like

  34. the reason i think u are not able to put money on him is u havent seen him in action after sawariya. u should watch both WUS and APKGK before putting your further bets. he is a real good potential.

    Like

  35. i dont know guys..but i really think it will be hard 4 d industry to have another superstar or a megastar say like a srk or even an aamir 4 dat matter…i remember srk saying once dat both aamir nd he..himself r d product of “SINGLE SCREEN” generation..with multiplexes..nd so many varied choices..i dont think we will produce another superstar now…

    Like

  36. BoC:

    Ranbir Kapoor ‘rockets’ into top Hindi film actors’ league

    MUMBAI: Ranbir Kapoor is an actor to watch out for! With the superb opening of his latest film Ajab Prem Ki Gazab Kahani (APKGK), the latest Kapoor lad surely has the potential to give other actors a run for their money.

    The movie has done a net business of Rs 245 million (Rs 24.5 crore) in its opening weekend in India, which is the fourth highest all time opening weekend collections for a film in India.

    What’s more, the actor now has a variety of films lined up for release over the next few months. Next up for release is Yash Raj Films’ Rocket Singh Salesman of the Year, which has been directed by Shimit Amin and written by Jaideep Sahni.

    Early next year will see the release of Prakash Jha’s Rajneeti, which will see the actor in a serious role. The movie also stars Ajay Devgn, Nana Patekar, Manoj Bajpai, Arjun Rampal and Katrina Kaif.

    Post that, Kapoor will be seen starring opposite Priyanka Chopra in Siddharth Anand’s Anjaana Anjaani, which is being produced by Sajid Nadiadwala.

    While Aamir Khan still rules the roost, followed by Shah Rukh Khan, Hrithik Roshan, Akshay Kumar, Saif Ali Khan and Salman Khan; the new Kapoor kid on the block has now firmly etched his place in the top echelons of the Hindi film industry and is ready to “rocket” out his next film on 11 December.

    Like

  37. By the way note how these very similar narratives come about everywhere from the media to the blogosphere. It’s like everyone seems to have the very same thoughts!

    Like

  38. Taran calling APKGK among the top 5 weekends (it edges out RNBDJ):

    http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/special_features/index.html

    Like

  39. Not really.Let Hrithik’s kites come first.Then we can decide star Rankings.

    Like

    • Hrithik’s had a hatrick even if separated by time and therefore diluted.. but one film cannot undo him. It would be a blow for sure but his life doesn’t depend on it!

      Like

  40. The problem with all the films releasing before 3 Idiots is they have maximum 2 weeks and in some cases just one week. Which is pathetic scheduling. Ajab only has Tum Mile on Nov 13th. But Nov 20th [Kurbaan], Nov 27th [DDD], Dec 4th [Paa], Dec 11th [Rocket Singh]. 3 Idiots has 3 weeks before scheduled Kites release.

    From all this Ranbir is the lucky one. Both Ajab and Rocket Singh have 2 decent weeks to go at it. Kurbaan is a struggler [one week only]. DDD will be hit by Paa. Paa hit by Rocket Singh etc.

    Of course the films which have good word of mouth will retain audiences but they will assuredly be hit collection wise.

    And if Ajab is emerging a massive winner than Rocket Singh releasing one week after Paa is going to hurt Paa.

    To much clustering here.

    Like

  41. BOI:

    Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani Set To Emerge Biggest Hit Of 2009

    Tuesday 10th November 2009 09.30 IST

    Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani looks all set to emerge biggest hit of 2009 as it had rock steady collections on Monday. The Monday collections were around 30% lower than Friday with a collection of 4.75 crore nett. Business was super strong all over India.

    This takes the four day total to just under 30 crore nett. The first week should add another 10-12 crore nett which will give the film a first week total in the range of 40-42 crore. This will be the fourth biggest first week nett total in the history of hindi cinema.

    The trending suggests that film will cross the 60 crore nett mark in two weeks. Overall the film should hit 70 crore nett and may even touch 75 crore nett. The lifetime distributor share of Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani is heading for a 36-38 crore total which would make it the biggest hit of 2009 till date and enable it to cross the business of Wanted and Love Aaj Kal.

    Like

  42. Has been the year’s biggest box office surprise so far. Unless Paa does something spectacular and even if it did the trailers would have been much more promising than AJab Prem’s.

    Actually the media indulges in this anti-Abhishek agenda as do partisans on blogs (Taran and BoC now have a top 7 without Abhishek!) but really this is the kind of performance that puts enormous pressures on really stars like SRK and Hrithik. Because when you have LAK and APKGK chalking up such numbers it’s hard to beat them by very much. But if you have a MNIK coming up you’re expected to. Even in the best case scenario though once a movie creates a massive initial it’s hard to sell that extra 5-10 crores to the public. So if MNIK did 45 crores it would still be less creditable than Ranbir’s performance here. Which is why Aamir is sitting pretty with Ghajini because that was historic (even Taran’s list and BoC’s now has him at the top). and again inasmuch as there are these huge benchmarks to cross it is still most likely for 3 Idiots!

    Like

    • this is also where the ‘critical’ bit kicks in.. you don’t need the very biggest grosses as a top star if the film is seen as truly edgy to some degree.

      Of course this doesn’t apply to Ranbir since he’s a young guy, he’s surprised everyone with this gross and he can really bask in the sunlight here.

      Like

    • note also how it took an old school director like Santoshi to come up with such a big grosser. One can only imagine what an AAA might have done in the multiplex system! But leaving this aside WUS had limited appeal. I’d be surprised if Rocket Singh repeated the performance of AAPKGK even on its best day. Santoshi even when he’s making a multiplex film is much more likely to have more universal instincts though I haven’t seen it yet and will be able to say more about this once I do.

      Katrina Kaif is one lucky dame though. First all those Akshay hits she attached herself to. Not that she isn’t popular, clearly enough of the audience is in love with her and her presence in this film can hardly be underestimated. But she manages to find the right project. there were stories of her privileging this one as she probably feels the Akshay thing has run its course. But for all she still is in DDD and that looks a winner based on the past record of that team. Akshay still has his initial though he’s had far too many big failures at this point and absolutely cannot afford a priyan film to fail. Which again I expect to be a success, so really Kaif might have two hits here!

      Like

  43. thanks satyam for putting up all these pieces. that shows your honesty.
    i was just about to say about the rankings u have put up taken out from BoC’s site. I agree with it(though I would be inconsequential as I am not a fan of any particular actor on the list) but do you? No abhishek in top 6 and they have said ranbir has gone in there. with this hit i will place him above both saif and salman as i dont expect much from kurbaan and also salman had 1 disaster and other heading to a below-average or flop after wanted. so abhishek is not in top 7 and i also believe shahid is at a better position than abhishek, despite of dil bole hadippa’s flop status. so abhishek currently is at 9th position and doesnt look like he is going to get any farther as i dont see paa being a big hit. it will be a good movie, amitabh will walk away with all the accolades but i dont really see it making big money. 1 it is not a genuine multiplex movie 2 its target audience is ?(there is no clear target audience for this movie) and 3 its schedule. it has literally got 1 week to prove itself.
    so i think everyone except SRK fans will agree with the above ranking but the one who is going to have most heart ache with it will be yourself.

    Like

    • follow the money trail as they say Madhu! Where are the real prestige directors going? Abhishek’s line up speaks for itself. I don’t see any of his peers with a better one!

      This kind of list that goes down to 6, 7 or 8 stars is in any case ridiculous. There is a top bracket for sure. The only stars I will accept as over Abhishek in a verifiable box office sense are the obvious 4. But there are mitigating factors. Aamir needs no explanation. SRK matters less and less to the overall narrative. Hrithik has put himself in such a position at the peak of his career with very low volume. Akshay is in mortal danger at the moment. Don’t see the rest in the same league in any case. Ranbir has had a big moment here and will only add to it with Rocket Singh but unless I see some of his projects after this phase or else unless he keeps repeating this level of success I would have a ‘wait and watch’ attitude with respect to him. I don’t put anyone in the top bracket unless I see them getting an achievement that is absolutely unique in some sense. But yeah if he has a big one with Rocket Singh it’s harder to argue against him.

      In any case the media narrative (though I take it seriously) is never something that defines things for me.

      As for ‘heartache’ Bachchan fans are made of sterner stuff! LOL! But jokes aside inasmuch as Abhishek remains ‘the question’ and still the star most often diminished in these narratives (whether in the media stories or the blogosphere) he’s doing something right! I’ll take his lineup over the competitions any day of the week!

      Like

    • On Paa you seem to be saying too things:

      1)It won’t be a bit hit so Abhishek loses
      2)Even if it is one Bachchan gets the accolades so he still loses

      This is precisely the problem with all the scenarios that are always painted with respect to him. No matter what the guy loses!

      Like

      • lol poor abhi

        agey abhi agein hai khai
        peeche na mudna peeche bhi khai
        khai khai
        right mein khai
        wright mein khai
        jidhar abhi udhar hai khai 😉

        Like

  44. Incidentally Saif looks to have a second hit this year with Kurbaan. But I’m anxiously waiting for Tum Mile’s success so that Emraan Hashmi might make it to the top 8 or 9. Abhishek can then squeak by at 10!

    Like

    • lol .. poor emraan even if supported finally not for his own cause but for abhisekh lol.. poor emraan and his image and his following..

      kaisa emraan
      kaisa mehmaan
      uske liye toh gadha bhi pehlwaan!!!

      Like

  45. well to be honest, i quite like abhishek. he is a damn good actor and has got a good line up of films, but he needs to have hits aswell which he doesnt have. why are we not considering a irrfan khan in the top 10. he is by far the best actor around and also he lands up in all the plum projects. he is simply not a box office star.dont get me wrong and assume i am comparing abhishek with irrfan. unless abhishek gets big hits we cant put him high up the ladder.
    i agree with you bracketing stars in tiers. top 4 we all agree at the moment. my precise order is also same as yours though SRK fans will obviously have a different order. i will put saif, salman, abhishek, shahid and ranbir(latest entrant) in the next tier and ajay, emraan, imran(difficult choice, should be higher and will get higher in days to come) will be in the next tier. the second tier is very fluid salman walks in and out of it. order is also very unpredictable. abhishek had the most promise in that tier and now ranbir has. i only commented when u put up the top7 and asked if everyone agreed to it almost giving me a view that u supported it.
    regards to paa, u got me wrong. i never said AB will walk away with all the accolades IF it becomes a hit. I said it will not make money at all. the only good things about that movie will be it will be liked by people who see it and amitabh will be really appreciated. if it makes money then abhishek has to be credited. was katrina not credited for movies she smiled in, in the last few years. she has improved a lot over the time and can carry films by herself as proven by APKGK now.

    Like

  46. APKGK in UK : First weekend: £177,886
    in US : First weekend: $461,505

    Like

  47. IBOS:

    Box Office: Ajab Prem moving to surpass Love Aaj Kal; Tum Mile, Qurbaan up ahead
    Tuesday, November 10, 2009

    Reflecting what the Indian audience actually pefers in these times, despite a supposedly pedestrian screenplay, Prem Shankar Sharma (Ranbir Kapoor) and Jenny’s (Katrina Kaif) ‘Prem Kahani’, Ajab Prem Ki Ghajab Kahani, is emerging one of the biggest grossers of recent times, the way weekday bookings are turning up. The Monday bookings for this film are the highest of this year, ahead of movies like Kambakht Ishq or Wanted and Love Aaj Kal. Tuesday multiplexes were better than what they have been for any film of the year as well. And the film could do another 5 crores Wednesday. At this rate, the movie could end up putting up a Rs. 55-60 crore gross week.

    If nothing else, APKGK represents box office triumph of conventional bollywood masala and of Hindi titles of supposedly Hindi movies that are actually in Hindi.

    On the other end, Jail has had a consistent run with roughly the same pattern as its mild opening. The film did well in certain single screen theaters in Mumbai over the weekend such as Maratha Mandir. But the grim film on the post-arrest situation in lockup hasn’t quite caught the viewers imagination nationwide.

    APKGK has an open run given its genre (romantic-comedy) till perhaps De Dana Dan on Nov 27. Though Kurbaan of Saif Ali Khan-Kareena is releasing Nov 20 and may take a decent opening as well.

    Usually films like Qurbaan have a limited audience in India which rarely even find an opening, let alone blockbuster status in India but the real life linked Kareena-Saif Ali Khan are openly flaunting sex scenes to sell this movie on an otherwise controvesial topic. It remains to be seen if that works and to what extent. The results would be watched by the industry for comparision as there are other films being made which have a controversial topic and similar casting dynamic such as the Abhishek Bachchan-Aishwarya Rai starrer Raavan. Kareena and Saif Ali Khan’s previous effort, Tashan, had a flop response in 2007 though there it can be said the actress was heroine to Akshay Kumar. Another of their pairing, LOC in 2003, also led to a flop.

    Immediately up ahead coming Nov 13 weekend is another Emraan Hashmi film with Soha Ali khan titled Tum Mile. The film by Mukesh Bhatt supposedly delves into the Mumbai floods.

    Like

  48. Taran:

    Will ‘Ajab’ overtake ‘Love Aaj Kal’?

    November 11, 2009 – 08:39 IST

    It’s time to rejoice. First WAKE UP SID. Then ALL THE BEST. Now AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI. The industry has [finally] heaved a sigh of relief. Agreed, the ratio of hits-n-flops is still 1:10, but I am optimistic that the forthcoming weeks will bring us out of despair.

    AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI has taken the nation by storm. It had a great start, a fabulous weekend, a solid Monday and most importantly, the film has stepped into the coveted Top 5 openers [opening weekend] list. That’s a major achievement!

    AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI is being loved and patronised by the youth in a big way, which only goes to prove that the youth and families represent a major chunk of movie-going audience today. You need to pitch the film to this segment. That’s what AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI producer Ramesh Taurani did, when he flagged off the promotional campaign of the film.

    AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI is faring exceptionally well across the country and I am sure, the dream run will spill over to its second week as well.

    The question is, will AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI overtake LOVE AAJ KAL, the biggest Hit of 2009 thus far? Or will it be at par? Or slightly less? The truth is, AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI is galloping at a lightening speed and if it holds well in its second week, it would emerge the biggest grosser of 2009 so far.

    A successful film benefits one and all, but the super-success of AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI should benefit Ranbir Kapoor the maximum. He has truly arrived now and whether his contemporaries like it or not, he has all it takes to stake a claim to the throne in times to come.

    The second release of the week, JAIL, has emerged a major disappointment, in terms of numbers. The weekend has been below par and the weekdays have been very dull. The AJAB PREM KI GHAZAB KAHANI wave made a big dent in JAIL’s business. Also, since the youth and families generally don’t tilt towards realistic/dry subjects, JAIL got eclipsed for this reason too.

    Like

  49. http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/boxoffice_update/index.html

    what did I say last time?! Now emraan hashmi can become part of a top 8 or something. LOL!

    Like

  50. IBOS has 18.4 crores for London Dreams in week 1 and 5.4 crores for Aladin.

    Like

    • hey satyam often wanted to ask a question to u as i m not a bo expert and i trust the verdict of jay the most,etc etc

      whats ur take on ibos,
      whats the controveries surrounding it,
      why does it get enough respect from many like eg ng…
      also do u still respect it???

      Like

  51. 2012′ has worldwide box-office bang of $225M
    AP

    By DAVID GERMAIN, AP Movie Writer David Germain, Ap Movie Writer – 48 mins ago

    LOS ANGELES – Doom spelled dollars at the box office as the global-disaster tale “2012” opened at No. 1 domestically with $65 million and pulled in $225 million worldwide.

    The Sony Pictures action saga tells the story of a scramble to save remnants of humanity aboard giant arks as the earth’s crust shifts and flood waters pour over most of the planet. With a cast led by John Cusack, Danny Glover and Chiwetel Ejiofor, “2012” was directed by doomsday specialist Roland Emmerich (“Independence Day,” “The Day After Tomorrow”).

    Overseas, “2012” did $17.2 million in France, $15.3 million in Russia, $9.9 million in South Korea and $8.1 million in Spain.

    Domestically, “2012” came in just shy of the $68.7 million opening weekend for “The Day After Tomorrow.” But Sony reported that its global total was the best ever for an original movie not based on an established franchise, brand or best-selling novel.

    “Roland is that type of filmmaker that casts his net really wide,” said Rory Bruer, head of distribution for Sony. “The story is something people could really relate to. It’s a story of the survival of humanity.”

    “Disney’s A Christmas Carol” slipped to No. 2 with $22.3 million, down only 26 percent from its No. 1 opening gross a weekend earlier. The Jim Carrey holiday adventure raised its 10-day total to $63.3 million.

    Big films typically can drop 50 percent or more in the second weekend, but the strong hold for “A Christmas Carol” indicates it could have a long shelf life through the holidays.

    Lionsgate’s acclaimed drama “Precious: Based on the Novel `Push’ by Sapphire” broke into the top-10 as it expanded to more theaters after a huge debut in limited release the previous weekend.

    Finishing at No. 4, “Precious” took in $6.1 million in 174 theaters, averaging $35,000 a cinema and raising its 10-day total to $8.9 million. That compared to a $19,095 average in 3,404 theaters for “2012.”

    With a cast that includes Mo’Nique, Mariah Carey and Lenny Kravitz, “Precious” stars newcomer Gabourey Sidibe as a Harlem teen pulling herself out of an abyss of illiteracy, incest and domestic abuse.

    “Michael Jackson’s “This Is It” added $5.1 million domestically to raise its total to $67.2 million. The Sony release became the all-time top-grossing music documentary, passing the $65.3 million total of last year’s “Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert.”

    The weekend’s other new wide release, Focus Features’ rock ‘n’ roll comedy “Pirate Radio,” opened a weak No. 11 with $2.9 million in 882 theaters, averaging $3,253 a cinema.

    The ensemble cast of “Pirate Radio” features Philip Seymour Hoffman, Bill Nighy and Kenneth Branagh in a story about 1960s disc jockeys blasting illicit rock music into stodgy Britain from an offshore radio station aboard a tanker.

    Starting in limited release, Fox Searchlight’s animated comedy “Fantastic Mr. Fox” drew big audiences with $260,000 in four theaters, for a whopping average of $65,000 a cinema. The film expands to nationwide release the day before Thanksgiving.

    George Clooney, Meryl Streep and Bill Murray lead the voice cast of “Fantastic Mr. Fox,” adapted by director Wes Anderson from the Roald Dahl children’s book about a poultry-thieving fox and three evil farmers.

    Paramount’s micro-budgeted horror flick “Paranormal Activity” pulled in $4.2 million to cross the $100 million mark. Shot for just $15,000, the supernatural tale rode a surge of online buzz to become a horror sensation, with a domestic gross now standing at $103.8 million.

    Despite the big opening for “2012,” Hollywood business dipped. Overall revenues came in at $140 million, down 6 percent from the same weekend a year ago, when the James Bond adventure “Quantum of Solace” led with $67.5 million.

    Still, “2012” was a strong prelude as Hollywood gears up for Thanksgiving, one of the busiest weekends at movie theaters.

    “It feels totally like summer,” said Paul Dergarabedian, box-office analyst for Hollywood.com. “This proves that if you put a summer movie anywhere in the release schedule, you can sometimes get summer numbers.”

    Estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Hollywood.com. Final figures will be released Monday.

    1. “2012,” $65 million.

    2. “Disney’s A Christmas Carol,” $22.3 million.

    3. “The Men Who Stare at Goats,” $6.2 million.

    4. “Precious: Based on the Novel `Push’ by Sapphire,” $6.1 million.

    5. “Michael Jackson’s This Is It,” $5.1 million.

    6. “The Fourth Kind,” $4.7 million.

    7. “Couples Retreat,” $4.3 million.

    8. “Paranormal Activity,” $4.2 million.

    9. “Law Abiding Citizen,” $3.9 million.

    10. “The Box,” $3.2 million.

    Like

    • NY Times:

      November 16, 2009
      ‘2012’ Opening Earns $65 Million
      By BROOKS BARNES

      After a quiet stretch at the North American box office, Hollywood discovered once again that audiences want to see the world and a cast of B-list actors ripped into pieces in a blitz of computer-generated effects.

      “2012,” Roland Emmerich’s thriller about a global cataclysm, opened at No. 1 with a higher-than-expected $65 million in ticket sales in the United States and Canada, according to the tracking service Hollywood.com. Sony, which released the movie, estimated that it raked in an additional $160 million overseas, making the first weekend for “2012” one of the biggest of the year.

      It is rare for a movie not based on a pre-existing brand, franchise or hit novel to deliver such robust results. Sony said “2012,” with a budget of $200 million, had the highest worldwide opening ever for an original movie.

      Sony, which has now opened eight movies in a row in first place, pushed the picture with a marketing campaign that highlighted its summeresque qualities: big, nonthinking, rip-’em-up popcorn fare. (Most reviews have been negative.) In the latest example of the studio’s forward-thinking promotional campaigns, the first wave of billboards simply read, “Search: 2012.” Sony knew that a raft of links about the doomsday date often attributed to the Maya would pop up in Google.

      At the other end of the spectrum the tiny independent film “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire,” the story of a Harlem girl who is brutally abused by her parents, played to sold-out theaters in limited release, selling about $6.1 million for a new total of $8.9 million.

      If that strong pace keeps up when this Lionsgate film opens nationwide on Friday, it could blossom into a substantial hit, an enormous feat given the subject matter. Lee Daniels directed the film, with Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry lending promotional backing.

      “Disney’s A Christmas Carol” benefited from moviegoers who seemed more in a holiday spirit than when the movie opened to disappointing results last weekend. The movie, directed by Robert Zemeckis, was second, selling a solid $22.3 million for a new total of $63.3 million.

      “The Men Who Stare at Goats,” a comedy from Overture Films starring George Clooney, was third with an estimated $6.2 million ($23.4 million total). “Precious” was fourth. Fifth place went to the Michael Jackson concert documentary “This Is It” (Sony) with about $5.1 million ($67.2 million total).

      Like

  52. BOI:

    Tum Mile Grosses 8 Crore Over First Weekend

    Monday 16th November 2009 11.30 IST

    Tum Mile grossed an approx 8 crore nett over its first weekend. The approx breakdown was 2.50 crore on Friday, 2 crore on Saturday and 3.50 crore on Sunday.

    The film after a fairly good start on Friday could not really capitalise on Saturday and Sunday as both days had figures lower than they should have been.

    Overall the first week will probably see collections in the 11-12 crore region and could be an average runner if it can hang around at the theatres after its first week.

    Like

  53. BOI have 38.2 crores for APKGK:

    http://boxofficeindia.com/cpages.php?pageName=earnings

    Needless to say Ranbir/Santoshi have done as much as SRK/Yashraj (RNBDJ) which is fantastic!

    Like

    • Yes, that is a very good opening week. But after the breathless reporting comparing the numbers to Ghajini I expected a higher first week. This is not even more than LAK and will end at around 55 crores for a movie that cost 50.

      Confirms what I previously said about hyperbole in filmy reporting.

      Like

      • Tyler,
        There were no comparisions to Ghajini. Only LAK.
        BTW, as per BOI it should cross 60 crores by second week.
        Even if that estimate might be high, it will still do quite more than 55 crores.

        Like

        • yes these would be good numbers given that it’s going face serious competition in the weeks ahead. It’s a big deal for Ranbir for obvious reasons but it might continue the trend of big openers not having much steam left after the opening weekend and certainly after week 1. Again 40 seems to be the high mark for every film that’s not Ghajini. In that 35-40 range for sure. The question is: just because that seems to be the norm should not make it completely acceptable to us. Think about how poor many of these major grossers are doing after very impressive opening numbers. Clearly they’re not being liked enough and therefore they’re not sustaining. It’s not about using Ghajini as the model. But surely these films could have the stability of many other hits from the 90s?! Why aren’t 40 crore openers unable to get to even 75 crores?! Even 70 most of the time? Also audience interest in a project drives the initial (stars, banner and so on) but once this is achieved there is no reason to reduce the bar and give the film ‘victory’ at each end of the scale. Even accounting for bigger dropoffs for blockbuster type openings Bollywood seems to do far far worse than Hollywood and there’s no excuse for this. Certainly on this sort of trending no one would calls these films successes in the latter. Having said this I think APKGK might possibly have trended better than LAK. It seems like a more ‘universal’ film. At any rate it does have serious competition ahead which is not true for many other superhits. The distinction to be made between this film and RNBDJ is that while the latter had the Ghajini juggernaut after 2 weeks and was obviously affected SRK as a top star in a Yashraj film is expected to be able to handle more damage than Ranbir Kapoor.

          Like

          • I think we are proceeding on the assumption that the second week was not good. Agreed, the lack of second week figures sounds fishy but it seems no one ( BOI or Taran) has second week numbers. Even 18 crores in second week would be quite creditable and I think is likely.

            Like

          • 18 crores would certainly be a good number for week 2 as it would indicate just a 50% drop which in the current scenario is very creditable.

            Like

          • BOI on Kurbaan:

            BOI:

            Kurbaan Opens To An Average Response

            Friday 20th November 2009 17.00 IST

            Kurbaan has taken a below par opening on its first day. Although the opening is decent at certain multiplexes, the film was expected to take a bigger start.

            Multiplexes started the day with 40-45% collections and went to around 55-60% in the afternoon. The evening shows should do better.

            Single screens have not shown a good response with collections in the 30-40% range for morning and afternoon shows.

            It will be important for the film to have a good first week as next week will see the release of biggie De Dana Dhan which will take away a lot of screen space from Kurbaan.

            Like

  54. London dreams meanwhile has done 25 crores according to BOI in 2 weeks with negligible amounts to now be added to the total. IBOS have it even lower and I doubt the film will get more than 21-22 crores here. In either scenario this film is a complete disaster and has done worse than JBJ, Tashan, CCTC in more or less absolute terms. Much as MAMK did only as much as UJ in ’06. So Salman is more or less back to square one once again and this shouldn’t surprise anyone (it should be remembered that even Wanted never quite got going in the multiplexes proving the complete lack of viability of a Salman project in a system dominated by these.. unless of course he were to do a Bhansali again.. that sort of prestige project is always unlikely for him and has been for a decade more or less). I must say that LD did seem to look better in terms of being a relatively safe box office bet as more and more of the previews came out. But clearly no one was interested in this one.

    Like

    • I do think that LD was more a victim of a wrong release date, sandwiched as it was between so many films, esp given the genre. a clear two week run may have ensured that the movie atleast had an average run

      Like

  55. 11 crores -second weekend for APKGK.

    Like

    • here’s the complete BOI report:

      Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani collected around 11 crore nett over its second weekend taking its ten day total to around 29 crore nett.

      The film is heading for around 15-16 crore nett over its second week. The collections would have higher but the super success of 2012 has meant that Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani collected a bit lower than it would have otherwise. Even still the film is a sure shot Super Hit and outside chance of being a blockbuster.

      The first week all India distributor share for Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani was 20.75 crore approx.

      Like

  56. 11 CRORES SECOND WEEKEND FOR APKGK
    US -$164,184 TOTAL 748238
    UK 80239 GBP TOTAL346296

    Like

    • The thing is (and leaving aside the absurd 2012 justification for BOI!) that this film has done very well but again in the LAK way which is to say it follows the format of big or huge initial and poor follow through. Poor, relatively speaking. Because this isn’t the follow through of a Krrish or D2 or BnB or RDB or whatever.. films in earlier years that opened very well and then the final gross was greater by a factor of 2 or 2.5. I won’t get into smaller release films that in essence depend on great trending and enough of a ‘first time’ audience showing up in later weeks. But with comparable releases today you’re seeing a factor of 1.5 instead. So just in the past few years the standards have had to be lowered. of course there are still films living upto the older standard. Ghajni more or less doubled its initial (accounting for the longer first week and so forth). JA did so despite starting lower than expected. Wanted did it. So it’s very much possible but we’re seeing typically films start off big and not sustain because they’re not accepted enough.

      Consider this — MP started off around 17 crores and ended up around 28-30 crores. Even looking at the lower end number here it did certainly enough to match today’s standards. This is where the media narrative comes in — certain films are instantly celebrated as hits. Others are mauled right away. MP was in the latter category. Now one can scream from the rooptops that one film was liked and the other wasn’t but it’s hard to do so with the very same numbers! An MP incidentally must have assuredly been liked more in smaller centers (something that the gross does not really register very much). But note how MP manages to tip VZ in terms of the largest initial of its time. Now we know that films when they’re completely rejected do not survive even for a week. The idea that a film is running on advance is basically nonsense. However the damage is sometimes apparent in week 1. So MP seemed huge at 17 crores or more. But maybe it might have done 19 or 20 crores! VZ itself wasn’t a film that was liked very much but with romance you still have a greater audience (at least at the time) willing to show up for a film that doesn’t have great WOM (and in centers where this matters) as opposed to MP given its genre.

      Again my point is that to sustain even for a week with a good enough total you have to satisfy some important segment of the audience. Take Dostana. A film which would have opened closer to 35 crores or so had the gay angle not been part of it. So this ‘damage’ was reflected in week 1. However if the people who did see it mostly disliked it it wouldn’t have reached that 28 crore total either. Of the people who did see it it’s fair to say that many liked it but few loved it. Which is why week 2 fell significantly which was made even sharper by the 26/11 attacks and the aftermath. Nonetheless after this week the film stabilized which means that there was enough of an audience here. The film did 45 crores or so, one could give it 50 crores (though Johar does anyway) without the disruption of the attacks. The media universally calls it a hit, some of this owes to the fact that the film had buzz that transcended the actual gross but nonetheless that is an argument for why certain films mean more than their gross, not one for film classification based on hard numbers (absurd as this last term is for India!).

      Omkara opened to around 12 crores or more and added another 10 or more. It should have done more than this for sure but consider the ratio. Again the point is that in the media narrative certain films are instantly celebrated, others aren’t. But the numbers tell a different story which is why despite the influence of the media narrative (which can never be underestimated) the question of stardom and films and so on is not ultimately ‘decided’ by this. It is hard to cut through the fog generated by this media prism. At the same time let’s go where the numbers lead us (which does not preclude other factors.. so Omkara means more than the numbers… this was reflected in the fact that Kaminey got a great opening!). Most of today’s ‘superhits’ have very little resonance with the audiences barring the immediate weekend hype. Specially so in an age where the theatrical run bleeds into cable TV and DVD and youtube and what not and the film is ‘simultaneously’ accessed across different media.

      all of this is incidentally not an argument against APKGK because no one could hold any of this against Ranbir. At the same time when there is this hysterical narrative about Ranbir having arrived in a big way one should remember that when actors become heart-throbs in this sense there is a strong ‘repeat’ segment of the audience. This is not the same as the audience liking the film and also liking Ranbir in it. Perhaps the film will stabilize at the lower end. We don’t know. So far the trending seems in line with a LAK and not with that of a KNPH or a JTYJN.

      Like

      • I grant that you make a valid point, Satyam. But, I think for big releases the BO is becoming front loaded. Much like Hollywood. Take for instance 2012. It opened to a 65 million weekedn but is going to decay ateast at a rate of 55-60% from the projections and that seems par for the course for all major releases. Films like Paranormal activity are likely to shoe sturdier legs. Even the Potter, LOTR, Spidey and other franchises trend similarly.
        Coming to media narrative it is framed by media’s own prejudices and also public perception. Taking two films like LAK and APKGK, in my anecdotal experience, while APKGK hasnt been liked universally overall, I find the average viewer far more inclined to give their endorsement to APKGK where response to LAK was lukewarm. However, BO trajectory of both seems similar. Am not sure how to explain this.

        Like

        • Well we’re not done with APKGK yet, it might be sturdier in the latter weeks.

          On the Hollywood analogy you do have a point but note how often there are articles about a film disappointing at the box office despite a 150 m take or something. On 2012 New Moon will hit it hard with the teenage segment this week. But all said and done if it doesn’t at the very least double that 65m number many will find it disappointing. So far they’ve called the opening ‘better than expected’. Let’s see if it sustains.

          But Hollywood in any case has that dynamic inasmuch as they also make disposable cinema. However the difference is that there enough blockbusters here every year and even in disappointing years that trend extremely well. Transformers 2 opened at 108m and did 400m! Iron Man opened a little less than 100m and did 320m. One doesn’t even need to get into the Dark Knight. Jolie’s Wanted opened at 50m, did 134m. In every genre one could find multiple films every year. In Bollywood there are hardly any. None so far this year.

          Like

  57. B.O. update: ‘Kurbaan’ has below-the-mark start
    – By Taran Adarsh, November 21, 2009 – 08:48 IST
    Kurbaan The much-hyped KURBAAN opened to a below-the-mark response. The opening was 40% to 50% at plexes, but much lower at single screens. The film has had a wide release and the numbers were expected to be huge, but the opening day business was not in proportion with the stature of the film.

    The next two days [Saturday and Sunday] are crucial and the film should show an escalation in business. Meanwhile, the film fetched Rs. 1 crore in paid previews on Thursday night, according to a statement received by this writer from UTV.

    Like

  58. IBOS:

    Box Office: Tum Mile, Kurbaan flop; D3 advancing
    Friday, November 20, 2009

    The controversial muslim actor Emraan Hashmi who is busy denying his family’s links in support to Lashkar and other terrorist groups and who had earlier made controversial statements about Hindus, has found out that may have been a bad idea as there is not much of an audience or a grosser without the Hindus in India. Infact the majority of people of India have this time punctuated that point by preferring the American disaster-themed film 2012, which too has some Indian characters, over Bollywood’s Bhatt- Hashmi disaster flick Tum Mile releasing on the same day. The box office collection gap between 2012 and Tum Mile is over 4:1. In other words, it’s not even close. It appears Emran Hashmee’s boat has sunk again. The opening last Friday was just a dismal 20% on low volumes and it simply has been going downhill from there.

    A similar problem is facing Kareena and Saif Ali Khan’s Kurbaan, which was earlier said to be named Jihad. Despite much hype over the Karan Johar backed flick about a Delhi punjabi woman Avantika Ahuja and her muslim terrorist lover Ehsaan Khan, featuring flaunted sex scenes between Kareena and Saif Ali Khan, this film isn’t exactly doing a number on the box office, as evidenced through its weak screenings early on Thursday and Friday. From the advance itself it was clear Bombay opening records were not in jeopardy. But Friday actual box office is painting a worse prognosis for the film. That this Karan Johar film could actually be heading to be a box office flop, making it the first flop of the filmmaker’s career. Though discerning box office observers are aware his directorial KANK in 2006 too witnessed a massive crash after opening.

    Qurbaan has been allocated lots of screenings because of the banner. Wake Up Sid earlier in the year had been a mild success at the multiplexes. However Karan Johar name too is going to take a beating after this. The Friday opening in the multiplexes where it was expected to fare best, was only about 35-40%. Of course that’s better than Tum Mile, but far below expectations and much below what’s necessary for this expensively shot overseas film which is said to have cost between 50-60 crores. Speaking of overseas, overseas the film may fare better with the India, Pakistan, former East Pakistan ie Banglades diaspora which may be more eager for these topics and castings about Islam and Global Terrorism. In India however, despite sex scenes being flaunted, with 26/11 being near, people are more concerend and angry about their own national security breach last year, if anything else. The single screen response to Kurbaan has been dismal with opening collections as low as 10% in centers like Bharuch, while being just about ok to poor in the multiplex centers. So in short, unless all India collections show a big turnaround, this Karan Johar fare on terrorism with the cast of Saif Khan and real life partner Kareena is about to be a major box office failure of the year. The failure of Qurbaan would be further bad news for Karan Johar’s next Shahrukh Khan venture on roughly similar setup, My Name is Khan, which too is set in America along similar themes.

    The one Khan actor who has been able to pull it off by playing it down the middle politically and on more nationalistic themes to his box office advantage has been Aamir Khan, whose Ghajini is a bigger hit than any Saif Al Khan-Shah Rukh Khan-Karan Johar-Aditya Chopra hit of the decade and whose next 3 Idiots too is expected to take a solid opening. Starting from cross-border infiltration hit film Sarfarosh in 1999, Aamir Khan has had very few flops in India over the last 10 years. 3 Idiots too is based on the culture of one of India’s most prized institutions, the IITs, arguably partly responsible for India emerging a technologically advanced nuclear power by the 1990s.

    However in the immediate short term, the movie that may actually do what all these films are aspiring for is Priyadarshan’s De Dhana Dhan. This film’s opening next Friday is expected to be one of the biggest this year as it brings back Katrina Kaif to Akshay Kumar along with Sunil Shetty and Paresh Rawal under Priyadarshan. This crew has delivered some of the biggest comic hits this decade in India, led by the Hera Pheri series.

    On December 4th after that, Amitabh Bachchan will be soon seen on the screen in the ABCL film Paa directed by R. Balkrishnan aka Balki. While Balki’s last film, Cheeni Kum, was only a mild hit, it was nonetheless a hit using a topic under which bigtime directors like Yash Chopra (Lamhe) had earlier failed. The theme of Paa, unlike Cheeni Kum, is much safer and so this 15 crore film is expected to sail through. However the makers are appearing to play it safe with about 900 prints going out initially.

    In other news, Aishwarya Rai has been dropped from Abhishek Bachchan’s next action thriller with Farhan Akhtar, though she may be cast as his heroine in Rohan Sippy’s next action-drama which too has Abhishek Bachchan in the lead. Viewers will recall that Rai was to be in the 2005 box office hit Bluffmaster before being dropped and replaced by Priyanka Chopra.

    The trailers of Kaminey star Shahid Kapoor’s next Chance Pe Dance with UTV have released to moderately positive response in the theaters. Earlier, the largely domestically set Kaminey, made by Vishal Bharadwaj had been one of the few box office successes of the year, along with Karan Johar’s own Wake Up Sid, indicating where the audience trend may be heading.

    Like

  59. “The controversial muslim actor Emraan Hashmi who is busy denying his family’s links in support to Lashkar and other terrorist groups and who had earlier made controversial statements about Hindus, has found out that may have been a bad idea as there is not much of an audience or a grosser without the Hindus in India. Infact the majority of people of India have this time punctuated that point by preferring the American disaster-themed film 2012”

    It is quite communal to suggest that Tum Mile has been rejected because of Hashmi’sstatement against Hindus! In fact, Hashmi’s statement, whether a publicity stunt or not, was not ‘against’ Hindus. It was addressing an existing problem of ghettoisation in the city. To suggest that Hindus are the majority of the country and have hence rejected Tum Mile because of his earlier stance is very insensitive and quite frankly, dangerous.

    Like

  60. APKGK is not a LAK.The opening is 38 crores which is less than LAK.
    I stil, think Ranbir is not a superstar.He has to do a lot more than this to be a superstar.

    Like

  61. Bollybusiness:

    Kurbaan – Box-office Sacrifice Continues

    Kurbaan spells negativity from first day itself, refuse to pick up on Saturday and heading for 10-11 Crore NETT weekend. Business dips on Saturday, however Sunday is better occupied and should fare better. But weekdays steep fall is inevitable and first week should finish at 15 Crore range.

    2012 saw another spellbinding weekend(Approx. 5 Crore [ excluding sunday]) and no wonder if this movie find its place over biggest hits of 2009.

    Ajab prem Ki Gazab Kahani is rock steady with quite lesser screenings. Third weekend should be in 3-4 Crore range.

    Like

  62. BoC:

    Box Office: Kurbaan nets Rs 40 million on Day 1 in India

    MUMBAI: Dharma Productions’ Kurbaan, which was released by UTV Motion Pictures, took an average opening at the box office on Friday. The film did a net business of approximately Rs 40 million (Rs 4 crore) on Day 1 in India with the Bombay territory contributing the maximum at Rs 15 million (Rs 1.50 crore). However, the paid previews held a day before were a crowd puller.

    The paid previews were held across 350 screens with 500 shows. On Friday, the movie’s occupancy was approximately 45 – 50 per cent in multiplexes and 40 – 45 per cent across single screens. As reported earlier by Businessofcinema.com, Kurbaan had a wide release with 1498 screens across India.

    Speaking to Businessofcinema.com, Fun Cinema chief operating officer Vishal Kapur said, “The response to the paid preview has been tremendous in all the cities since it was quite an awaited movie and the weekend will be good. However, the opening has not been all that good and the reactions are not very positive. Even though the weekend occupancy will be high, the occupancy from Monday to Thrusday is a bit doubtful.”

    However a spokesperson from a multiplex chain feels that if UTV wouldn’t have done the paid previews, the film would have opened better. “The opening has been very poor around 20- 25%. Even though it’s a well made film, there is nothing new in the film since the terrorism backdrop has been overdone,” he said.

    PVR cinemas programming head Prakhar Joshi added, “The response to the paid preview was very good with around 80% occupancy and also some of the shows going full, we are also thinking of adding some more shows looking at the response of the paid preview.”

    However, considering the average opening on Friday, it is doubtful whether those shows will be added. “The opening has been a disaster with just about 30 – 40% occupancy and it is difficult to say whether the film will sustain in the coming week,” said another multiplex official.

    Notwithstanding, the movie’s director Rensil D’silva is optimistic. “I have been getting a lot of feedback and it sounds great. I am confident of the film, so let’s see how it goes,” he said.

    Like

  63. BOI:

    2012 Emerges A Blockbuster

    Monday 23rd November 2009 13.00 IST

    Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

    2012 has emerged the biggest hit of 2009 and a blockbuster. The film grossed 25 crore nett over its first week from its English and Hindi versions. The dubbed Tamil and Telugu versions may have added a further 8-10 crore nett.

    The Hindi version Pralay Ki Shuruaat grossed around 14.50 crore nett from 400 cinemas while the English version of 2012 grossed 10.50 crore nett from 175 cinemas.

    The second weekend has held rock steady with drops of 40-50% as compared to first weekend. The film was sold at reasonable prices by Sony which have been recovered in the first week itself by distributors in the various circuits. Overall the English and Hindi versions are likely to have a lifetime business of 55 crore nett.

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  64. BOI:

    Kurbaan Makes No Impact At The Box Office

    Monday 23rd November 2009 11.00 IST

    Kurbaan has made no impact at the box office over its first weekend. The film opened to an average response and did not show a pick up on Saturday and Sunday.

    The collections on Saturday were similar to Friday and Sunday did not show a big jump as collections were just a bit higher than Saturday. Business is best in premium multiplexes in metroes with other multiplexes being well below the mark. Business in single screens is poor.

    Kurbaan grossed around 14 crore nett including 1 crore plus business from paid previews. The weekdays are likely to show a big drop going by Sunday figures and the week should close in the 18-19 crore nett region.

    Like

    • I must say, the Kurbaan non-performance is easily the most surprising box office story of the year for me. The fact that there were no takers even on day 1.

      Like

      • To me even Delhi-6 comes into this year’s biggest disappointment surprise, though it has good initial.

        Like

        • yes but the D6 sort of deal where a film opens well and is then not liked is a common one. we’ve seen even films with astonishing weekend openings collapse completely later on. But here what’s surprising is that people weren’t interested enough to show up in the first place! Consider this — the film is looking to do worse than JBJ did in 2007 (in terms of the opening week) in absolute terms! worse than Tashan, worse than CCTC. D6 did about 24 crores or so after collapsing. To put it in perspective if Paa becomes a big one at the box office I wouldn’t be surprised given the publicity campaign and the buzz generated (though one might have been at the idea before all of this started). The only surprise that cross this one for me would be if 3 Idiots didn’t do well. In that case the opening weekend would nonetheless be guaranteed but the fact that Hirani and Aamir didn’t come up with something that could be liked would be stunning. I don’t expect this to happen of course but it would be that sort of surprise. With Kurbaan even if the film was going to fail eventually what kept audiences away in the first place?!

          Getting back to D6 yes this looked safe. At the same time with certain kinds of directors there are never any guarantees. So Rathnam for example got a big one with Guru. This doesn’t mean that Raavan is safe. This is for the simple reason that certain kinds of directors don’t really repeat themselves. To get the narrative ‘right’ in very different scenarios is hard. But also some of these directors are not even trying to do so. With D6 the problem was that Mehra couldn’t come up with a more ‘affecting’ story because in the absence of an obvious narrative with highs and lows that’s what you need. Then again D6 isn’t that sort of film and finding that mean is always harder. Much as there are narrative problems in Dil Se but once you embark on that sort of project and treatment it is that much harder to get it right.

          Aamir has the best nose in the business for narratives across genres. But also note how he errs always on the side of the ‘linear’ narrative. In other words even as he takes risks (which continues to be underrated because of his success) he also is more likely than not to work with narratives that ultimate have a single thread and move very clearly in a certain direction. The last time he did not do exactly this was MP.

          To be fair it’s not just about Indian audiences. Even world over audiences just don’t react that well to somewhat de-centered narratives. Looked at this way another problem with D6 was that it wasn’t Roshan’s story contrary to what Mehra claims. Yes his director’s cut highlights this point better by making it a dead man’s narrative. And yet by using a semi-documentary technique and having us access that world through Roshan without the latter being an active ‘observer’ does not quite give the audience a clear handle. Which is not necessarily a flaw in the film though it is so in commercial terms. In other words the film relies on this ‘observer’ almost by ‘effacing’ him at many points as would a documentary. This is why the Abhishek performance (here Mehra is right) is completely misunderstood. Roshan’s role here is never to be ‘the story’ in a weird sense but just a privileged observer.

          I would go even so far as to say that the tone Abhishek achieves here is actually masterful because it is completely in sync with the director’s intentions even if one might critique those intentions on other grounds.

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  65. IBOS have a week 2 17 crore number for APKGK and a 55 crore 2 week number.

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  66. IBOS:

    Ajab Prem Ki Ghajab Kahani territorywise collections
    Monday, November 23, 2009

    The following is how year’s biggest hit so far, Ajab Prem Ki Ghajab Kahani, has fared at the box office in each conventional box office circuit of India. The film which is Raj Kumar Santoshi and Ranbir Kapoor’s biggest grosser, will end up netting 65+ crore. The film is guaranteed a top 5 grosser status and will likely be the year’s biggest solo grosser, as all the biggies coming be it De Dana Dan (Akshay Kumar, Sunil Shetty, Katrina Kaif), Paa (Amitabh, Abhishek Bachchan, Vidya Balan), or 3 Idiots (Aamir Khan, Madhavan, Kareena Kapoor) technically are not focusing on one, solo lead character per say. Only Rocket Singh – Salesman of the Year, another Ranbir Kapoor fare for Yashraj on Dec 11 can be considered such an attempt.

    APKGK was launched on around 1000 screens on November 6. It has fared very well in Bombay apart from Hindi circuits. The 2 week box office collection breakdown:
    Bombay Territory: Rs. 23.0 crore,
    Delhi-UP: Rs. 12.5 crore,
    East Punjab: Rs. 4.4 cr,
    CPCI-Rajasthan: Rs. 6.2 cr,
    South India: Rs. 4.6 cr,
    East India: Rs. 4.7 cr.

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  67. IBOS:

    Why Distributor Share is wrong criteria to rank box office
    Monday, November 23, 2009

    Would we consider rating the commercial success of the last Michael Jackson music album based firstly on the order of how much the CD delivery truckdriver made?

    That’s exactly who a distributor is in the movie business. He’s the truck driver, a middleman. The distributor is not Shahrukh Khan or Salman Khan or Amitabh Bachchan or Akshay Kumar or Hrithik Roshan or Abhishek Bachchan or Aishwarya Rai, nor is he Sanjay Bhansali or Reliance or Warner Brothers or Yash Chopra creating the product. Nor is he the audience consuming the product. His/Its relevance to the movie’s ‘economy’ is strictly intermediate. Neither irrelevant, nor primary.

    In the movie album business, music CD can be the product, a company like Sony the album producer, and the buyer is the audience. But have we ever heard of music album’s success being contingent on the distributor ie (truck driver)’s share? No, and that is why the notion of using distributor share primarily to rank movies’ economic impact doesn’t make sense either. You don’t rank a movie’s success by the agent’s commission, which can depend on a number of factors, including how low or high he agrees to buy a film at.

    This is not to entirely discount distribution’s role. Of course without distributors and distribution films don’t get from producers’ studios to theaters. But if the movie release business is a supply chain, a distributor is just one node in that supply chain. Distributor share can be a way to look at films, but it is not the centrally critical criteria as far as overall box office/commercial result is concerned.

    Ultimately the box office and commercial impact measure of a movie is whether it managed to create more capital than it took to generate it. For that we have to measure the inflow-outflow at each node of the release process and if the net cash inflow is more than the net outflow, the movie is a commercial success. Otherwise, not.

    However since in India, there is not the transparency to reveal cost structures at each node, the best indication is the admissions grosses. And to create the commercial profile based on that primarily. Even there, there is a catch. Collections are revealed as net collections. When that is not what the consumer is paying or the movie generating at the actual box office. Why talk of cost of production of film in gross terms (ex. it cost 80 crores, it cost 50 crores), but box office collections in only net terms? Talking in net terms excludes the impact it makes towards Government coiffers via the entertainment tax and thus on the overall economy. What the movie is generating is reflected in the gross box office not the net.

    In closing, Gross Box Office ie GBO, is the international standard in the cinema business, not nett or distributor share. And the Indian film industry should work towards transparently reporting that first and foremost across all regions and languages in its cinema business.

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  68. satyam- often wanted to ask a question to u as i m not a bo expert and i trust the verdict of jay the most,etc etc

    whats ur take on ibos,
    whats the controveries surrounding it,
    why does it get enough respect from many like eg ng…
    also do u respect it?
    (had asked it somewhere above but didnt got response so thought to bring ur notice again..)

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    • Rooney, I didn’t see your question earlier. I’ll try to summarize it as comprehensively as I can:

      1)IBOS was the first online portal dedicated to the Indian box office. BOI followed later. I am led to believe that the latter ‘stole’ stuff from the former or rather the folks who started BOI were responding to IBOS and their needs and then decided to branch out (which is fine except that there was some unethical stuff at the same time as I’ve been given to understand). This was the original scenario. The folks might be different at this point, i.e. those at the helm for BOI. I haven’t kept up with the story.

      2)Both sites have a point of view to put it kindly. The difference is that in one case (IBOS) one might find the commentary very biased not least because it tends to be very politicized, on the other though the numbers are quite questionable even based on their own internal evidence. The commentary is also so at times but in a much more deceptive sense. The point I’m trying to make is that one can disagree with IBOS numbers (as I often do) but it’s a mistake to correlate these with the obvious political agenda on display. To put it more bluntly I have very good reason to believe that the numbers are never ‘cooked up’. However since ‘hard numbers’ are not the only part of a narrative sometimes the commentary might be misleading. With BOI though I disagree with the numbers and have serious questions that these have been cooked up. Why? because these numbers work constantly to the disadvantage of certain stars. For example if you went to BOi regularly you’d discover that they more or less detest the Bachchans (though the father comes in handy when it’s a question of cutting down the son to size.. a tactic practiced elsewhere also.. so one ‘supports’ Bachchan only as a way of not supporting Abhishek.. in other contexts Bachchan too is given short shrift.. much as the media keeps running the narrative that Abhishek is piggy-backing on Bachchan when throughout his career the media was busy trying to cut down the latter also!) and Abhishek’s films get the worst commentary and numbers. With IBOS there is no such correlation. For example there was some very toxic commentary when JA came out but otherwise Hrithik has some of the highest numbers on this site including a Krrish total that is more or less equal to the D2 one! Similarly it is tagged as a Bachchan site when its politics is completely opposite to theirs but also Abhishek sometimes gets the harshest commentary on this site.

      3)There’s no ‘controversy’. what simply happened was that IBOS questioned the dominant SRK narrative at many points and this is what many on the blogosphere reacted to. The people who dislike IBOS are almost predominantly those who are very kindly disposed to SRK. These are certainly the people who react violently to it even if there are others who don’t like the site either. So a hysteria has been whipped up from time to time against IBOS. And of course the same folks consider BOI the gospel truth.

      4)Eventually these things become completely partisan and especially in an online universe people go to the sources that support their own perspectives. There’s nothing strange about this.

      5)I of course used to write for IBOS as everyone knows. I will say this about them — I was never challenged on my perspective. Not only this, I once wrote a scathing piece on the very commentary that was otherwise appearing on the blog and which seemed to me ‘communal’ and which also appeared on the site. This certainly suggests integrity. One can be repelled by their commentary, disagree totally with the numbers and yet believe that there is a certain integrity there that does not allow them to cook up numbers. In a different context the claim I’m making is that just because one is a right winger does not mean he or she is dishonest also. With BOI I personally do not have any such faith. I actually wouldn’t mind their own biased commentary (though it’s never political) if I thought the numbers were honest even when I disagreed with them. But I have no such confidence and the reasons I have explored at length previously.

      As for your last question I tend not to think of these things in terms of ‘respect’. I just want to know whether a source is credible or not. And again my views are not ‘constant’ or impervious to change. I had a different opinion of IBOS many years ago compared to two years ago compared to today. And it does not tend in one direction. I would say the same for BOI. I could change my mind about them tomorrow but they’d have to clear up some things! with IBOS I think it’s clear where they stand. With BOI it’s much more deceptive, there’s a certain structural underpinning to things (for example Bachchan’s older peak period films have been systematically downgraded in significant ways) which is ‘anti-Bachchan’ for want of a better term… tomorrow if they’re suddenly big on Paa that will be a way of not talking about Abhishek.. if they were ever big on an Abhishek solo it would be a first!) that’s harder to spot for the ‘uninitiated’.

      What I can categorically state is this — I respect Jay’s work greatly in this sense. Not because of any personal reason or anything of the sort but because his methodology is always transparent and on display. You can argue with it. This is the model that is needed. Everything else whether it’s Nahata/Taran or BOI/IBOS has a ‘take it or leave it’ attitude to it which is not something I can live with. Yes Nahata and Taran have numbers but Nahata has often been dishonest in terms of his reporting in the popular media versus his trade journal and Taran’s no different. Of course notice how Taran has suddenly stopped giving out weekly numbers online. Why? Well of course the work Jay was doing (which was being noticed.. and of course he also gets printed in a newspaper) was getting a bit too subversive (even without the imitation he’s fostered). Why else would Taran stop doing the numbers altogether. I’ve been looking at his numbers for the better part of a decade. What happened all of a sudden?! The fact that the trade narrative is being challenged in the blogosphere and by extension elsewhere clearly wasn’t acceptable beyond a point.

      But the reason I respect Jay is because irrespective of his likes or dislikes his analysis has always had the greatest integrity and dispassion to it. of course even he was ‘controversial’ at times because many partisans did not like his version of the events either. So anyone or anything can be demonized which is why in these matters or any other, and assuming one operates in good faith, one has to be willing to think for oneself.

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  69. When APKGK was released we saw figures of 45 crores and may be, just may be 50 crores suggested for final total.
    Is it safe to say it has exceeded ALL EXPECTATIONS by a considerable margin and lay it to rest ?

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    • I would hate to be non-rigorous here so let me repeat parts of what I said earlier:

      APKGK is a big success for Ranbir, no doubts here. But given that the film opened big it has to be held to the standards that every other big opener is tested by. If it’s a 38 crore opening I wouldn’t expect 76 crores or a doubling since very few big films achieve that ratio these days (even if as I’ve often argued they’re all under-performers).

      To end up in LAK range more or less or to trend like the latter is more than acceptable for Ranbir given where he is in his career but it doesn’t exactly feed the ‘he’s a superstar’ narrative. Because here a repeat audience would have been part of the deal in a more or less passable film. But it’s fading exactly as fast as those other big films. Did it go beyond expectations? Yes! But only in terms of the opening. I didn’t expect 45 crores once the film opened to 38! Or even after I realized that the opening weekend had been huge.

      This is the point I consistently make. If the film had opened to 30 and done 55 I would have probably rated it higher than I do currently. Because the 30 might have been a more accurate estimate of Ranbir’s standing than the current one is. Much as the Race opening didn’t exactly mean that Saif was Hrithik! Within certain genres clearly films with a variety of stars and combos can open big. Otherwise looking at the LAK opening and comparing it with RNBDJ one would have to say that Saif is as big as SRK!

      But here’s the flip side. Also something I’ve argued about for years. It’s not that Ranbir is deconstructed by this argument. He’s just starting out. he just needed a big one and he got it. He doesn’t have to prove much at this point especially when he already has a success in a niche WUS and looks to have another one in Rocket Singh (if APKGK has coattails he might get much more than this niche film otherwise would). It’s the big stars. Not because their stardom is in doubt but because they often tend to associate themselves with genres and projects that pay instant dividends at the box office. This is smart strategy. Who would blame them? But the point here is a different one. If the Race genre is big any number of major stars could appear in it and profit from it all else being equal. If a major star then attaches himself or herself to such a model the success ratio would be high without the star being an integral part of it.

      There’s another counter-argument here. The major stars are those who ultimately become integral to whatever genres they choose or foster. For example Hrithik is not incidental to Krrish. Not every star could be equally successful here. The role requires a certain kind of physicality and pose that not every star could replicate. But this isn’t true for D2 as the Race example proved perfectly. Shahrukh is integral to the yashraj films for sure but not so for OSO to name one example. Getting huge initials is hardly extraordinary in an age where even Golmaal 2 gets it! So some of these stars are integral to their projects but also do far more where they can profit from an existing model without necessarily adding to it.

      As I’ve repeatedly also said Aamir and Abhishek are the only exceptions to this. Aamir because he’s built or rebuilt a brandname on prestige. This is what allows him to cut across genres. He’s never had the base that a Salman or Shahrukh do in different ways nor the idealization that always benefits Hrithik and is in any case universal. But he’s converted this weakness into a strength and substituted that kind of instant audience connection with ‘prestige’. People just think he’ll do a worthwhile film even if they would otherwise have doubts about the project. Abhishek for equally obvious reasons. One might question his decisions in terms of ensuring successful film narratives but that makes his choices even more commendable for that reason. This is why one celebrates the odd commercial venture he does.

      Akshay’s also been integral to his genre because while the audience is big on comedy handling his kind of volume is not something a less than major star could do. And that’s the other thing. I might not give SRK much credit for OSO but if he had 3 of these in one year I’d admit that he was able to sustain that sort of volume.

      So it’s not just about Ranbir. It’s about the magnitude of success, the question of genre and so forth. Ultimately top stars are those who are able to define the narrative in ways that cannot be easily replicated. These definitions might be different for different top stars existing at the same time but these have to be there. Ranbir doesn’t have that definition yet. He’s not even close. But if he has three hits in six months he off to the races as they say. But it’s not a Hrithik-like deal where even the instant success ‘meant’ something. I don’t see a narrative for Ranbir at this point, I do not even see a potentially great one in the making. But it’s early days. This is not a discredit to him, only to those narratives that insist on making him a ‘superstar’.

      Take a look at Shahid Kapoor. His narrative hasn’t changed for years. Vivah didn’t change it, Kaminey won’t either. Consider Saif. his best period with Omkara, EHT and the Yashraj hits also did not ultimately put him in a better position that he was after DCH and KHNH. Race didn’t do it. LAK really doesn’t either. He is a significant star but clearly doesn’t belong to the major leagues.

      And this has been the single greatest stumbling block for all those who’ve always ‘debated’ Abhishek with me. Why does he keep attracting a certain sort of project? Why does he often seem to have the best lineups around? So on and so forth.

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      • Satyam,
        I appreciate the ‘rigor’.
        But, you are making a different point.
        Let us put aside the mdia spin on Ranbir, tho it is pertient in that they feel they smell a winner here and more importantly Saif and Shahid have never been talked about in this manner inspite of their successes.
        It is like the mega opening given by Ranbir is used to make an argument against his obvious success. First, we were saying – he is only capable of giving 30 crore hits and he is stuck in that bracket and now that he gives a 38 crore opening, we are saying it has to reach a certain final gross for it to mean something. One cannot discount the humongous opening and the decent second week ( particularly in face of impressive performance of 2012).
        Does it mean he is already a major star? No, but it does mean he can open big and has established a certain base. You can see all the gushing commentary he invites from bloggers and media people.
        Did anyone expect APKGK to do this well? No. Would it have worked this well with any other star? I doubt it.
        While I dont particularly regard it as an achievement he has already made this genre his own. Whatever name you want to give this genre.
        Certainly, now the yard stick to guage his success changes.
        But, one certainly has to give him APKGK.

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        • Rajen agreed completely with everything you’ve said here (well almost except the genre bit). And for the record even with WUS I was certainly reacting against the media commentary in many ways. My point was: if he’s that big why is he only doing a Rock On here? Conversely one must also wonder if the world changed so much between WUS and APKGK. It is equally true that the latter’s big opening and success certainly changes things for him and Rocket Singh which otherwise might have just done a WUS could be the beneficiary. So yes no one expected this from APKGK. This also means he’s arrived as a star. I don’t even quarrel with this bit. With three hits this year he will also be in all likelihood the year’s most successful star. add to this the fact that BAH was a plus film and Saawariya would have flopped with God in a starring role (which is to say not Bachchan at his peak!) Ranbir has had a very successful start to his career and given the reviews he’s getting looks to build on it. Nothing can be taken away from him in this sense. In terms of genre I would love it if he did indeed made the non-multiplex love story/comedy genre his own. In fact if he is smart he will learn the right lesson by juxtaposing APKGK with WUS. In fact I see a possibility here. Ranbir could position himself in the other camp (those who do not breathe multiplex air all the time even when their films work in multiplexes) that currently only includes Aamir and Abhishek. Whether he will have that sort of ability to play the long pass only time will tell.

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          • Personally, I think the biggest stars also trend films best. Ranbir is not quite there yet. But he will probably get there.

            CDI/TZP show how a film that starts averagely at the box office, propells into a wave film overnight. The same “magnitude” of momentum cannot be achieved with a film like Rock On or WUS.

            And films like D2, OSO, Ghajini, RNBDJ illustrate the difference between the biggest stars vs films like Race, APKGK, LAK. It could be the audience just liked the former more and hence trended better but I also think its more celebrated because of the stars in the former. You know Sachin and Gambhir could both score hundreds, but the former will always be more newsworthy or celebrated. It’s just how it is.

            Saif can open a film big, BUT can he inject word of mouth goodwill that Hrithik, Aamir and SRK share?

            Put it this way, no amount of media pumping could get me in to watch an Abhay Deol film even if I watch all his movies on DVD and liked them all. But I’d sign up for a RNBDJ even if I am not a SRK fan!

            This is not to say Ranbir won’t get there, just that he is not there yet.

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          • That’s a fair way of stating it Jay.. I’d only depart a touch here.. I see two categories here.. the major star who appears in the sort of film where he gets major credit (Krrish for example or even KNPH for that matter) and one where he doesn’t (OSO). Ghajini falls in the former category, RNBDJ in the latter. DDLJ or KKHH would also be in the former category. The point is that major stars can profit from certain kinds of projects. Race cannot be held against Saif if D2 is not being held against Hrithik. Is there a distinction here? Yes ultimately because of bigger stars and banner and so forth the latter does actually open bigger and sustain better than the former. So Hrithik deserves more credit than Saif. But Saif also deserves more credit than many others. Because if you have an Akshaye Khanna or Anil Kapoor level of star in his role you won’t get half that opening. Given that the audience is attracted to certain genres these are advantaged but you still need the right star to helm the project. But once you cross that threshold there might not be as much to choose between Saif and Hrithik. The openings of the two films were not a world removed by any means. The trending factor is an important one. This is where you get repeat audience for a star. This is where the Hrithik factor or Ash or whatever kicks in. But I would submit that D2 is also a more entertaining film than Race. Thrillers never trend as well in India to begin with! Doesn’t LAK prove the point? I am no fan of SRK’s (at this point) but OSO was much more entertaining than LAK. So even though different films might belong to the same junk genres one might still be more entertaining than another. Akshay proves this best. It’s not that KI trended terribly for any mysterious reason, it was worse than his other comedies that did well. Eventually top stars learn to come up with the right strategy and mix it up in the right way. That’s a credit to them. But they also sneak some by that would work in other situations too. Saif has never had initials as big as he did with LAK and Race. In fact the top star sometimes profits from this arrangement because everything the latter does is attributed to his stardom whereas the star like Saif gets a raw deal. What if the ‘learning experience’ has involved simply latching on to the right kind of project, even when one does the different? This does not reduce the major star’s stardom but it also involves a set of choices that do not really ‘test’ the star. This is not a distinction without a difference. Consider how some of these stars behave in terms of their choices — SRK does very few films now whereas he never had that work ethic at his peak (unlike Aamir who cut down on work very early though he would suggest he accepted some of his limitations). It’s not as if he’s 70 now! At his age many stars do multiple films. Akshay still does. A much younger Hrithik is seen once in two years! What explains this? SRK’s choices suggest ‘decline’ but least he has had his innings. what about Hrithik? Again he did multiple films after KNPH with many high profile banners and nothing worked. In fact it was the very opposite of what’s happening now with him. Even his flops had better opening than those of his peers highlighting audience interest in his films but he precisely couldn’t sustain those films. Not even a good old quite entertaining Yashraj film like MDK! He didn’t become a bigger star with KMG, he just changed course. He had a great ’06 but he would have had a great ’01 or ’02 if he’d had two films like KNPH in those years! JA didn’t get an MP like initial. Both were period films. Why not?

            Again all of this is not to deconstruct SRK or Hrithik or anyone else. The point is that a star obviously has a certain capital to work with but can then feed off an intelligent strategy. Which is great for the star in question but might also highlight certain issues for the long run or even in the present. So an Akshay can always steal up on such a star let alone one with more prestige projects.

            The Sachin/Gambhir example could also be reconfigured. On my terms Sachin does a Gambhir because it’s easier to do the latter! Gambhir cannot do the former but in an system which seems to reward both equally the former might not be needed! In other words the boundary’s the same whether you play the most exquisite ground stroke or simply loft the ball. Why try to get a hit out of RDB when it’s always easier to do so out of OSO?!

            On another note limited visibility can maximize initial and sustain trending all else being equal. I might be willing to watch a film with a certain star even if WOM is mediocre if I think I won’t see the same star for quite a versus if I believe I will have the same chance within a few months!

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          • I hasten to add this as a more general matter. I do not argue against Hrithik or SRK or anyone else ‘as’ and abhishek fan. It has often been the tendency among many of my ‘auditors’ to believe this. Partly it’s because such partisanship is always on display where there is even evidence of certain folks who run down every movie that does not star their favorite. Partly it’s also because the people bringing such opinion are themselves enormous partisans who believe everyone must be like them! But sometimes people do not read things very clearly also. At any rate, and this in the service of a clarification, my Abhishek narrative has never depended on the failure of others, even his most obvious peer’s (Hrithik). Ultimately stars have to succeed on their own. It is a competitive business but a star cannot become successful only as a byproduct of another one’s failure. The other reason is that I don’t see Abhishek as losing out to anyone if all the top stars lived upto their true potential. Let’s take the hrithik/abhishek couple again (I have termed it as such in the past). If hrithik did multiple films he could have more years like ’06, if Abhishek could be more consistent at the box office he’d have a combination of critical and commercial success that would be unequaled (leaviong aside an Aamir) and he wouldn’t have to get the biggest possible grosses to make this point. Hrithik on the other hand might get the biggest possible grosses and have is own place be central to the narrative. But if both maximize their potential as star-actors I don’t see Abhishek being secondary. This is why whether it’s Hrithik or anyone else the success of those stars wouldn’t bother me even if I were prone to think of it in such terms. Currently Abhishek has a fantastic lineup, arguably the best one around. Most of it has to work. If it does he’s in a different stratosphere. if it doesn’t he might be worse off this time in very real terms (would be impossible to explain away this kind of volume and the prestige/commercial combo). But what others do has really no impact here. It is only when a star has certain basic vulnerabilities that this matters. So for example if there are a finite number of prestige projects SRK could get many of these if not most in the 90s and today he can hardly even get one. But that only illustrates the fact that he diminished his brand as an actor even as he increased it as a star. There are consequences to these choices. It will always be hard for Hrithik to fight off the song/dance/stunts image. This is why those choices have to come when a star is at his peak in terms of age and assuming minimal box office success for the move to appear genuine and for there to be enough time to frame the different narrative, even if it can sometimes be years on the making. We have seen Aamir’s example from the 90s. We also see Abhishek’s current one. In some ways the latter is in an even better place because there were not many prestige films made in the 90s that were not just the big commercial ones. But in any case Aamir walked away from multiple successes in some very commercial films. Abhishek walked away from his 2005 strengths more or less after 2005! Aamir eventually learned that even as one could attempt different genres there had to be certain attention given to not just the narrative but also one’s character and correlate this with audience expectations. Abhishek might also be finally learning that lesson in this current lineup where he seems to have ‘stronger’ parts for want of a better word. Again Aamir did not not succeed because SRK had all his Yashraj hits. Similarly when he did succeed all the Yashraj hits in the world couldn’t put SRK above him. whether Abhishek can ever do an Aamir completely remains to be seen. But his narrative as I see certainly does not involve anyone else failing.

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        • Incidentally I don’t discount the media narrative either. Perception is a big part of the game.

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  70. Where I disagree, Satyam, is in the whole “not seeing the potential” bit. Greatness is one thing but it’s hard to make the argument that Ranbir’s not headed some place special given his run, and more importantly, the general buzz that seems to be surrounding him.

    I’m definitely not interested in this entire business of near-sightedness that guides a good deal of mainstream audiences and especially the press (this is an affliction for most industries but seems to be an epidemic in India) where they seem to be desperately propping up every other actor that comes along. Hrithik is to blame for this, partly – his unparalleled instant success seems to have created a new barometer for success against which every good-looking, suave new prospect is measured against. I never bought into it with Shahid (even if I think he’s perfectly adequate) or Imran or Vivek or any of the others.

    But Ranbir is actually the first actor since Abhishek that actually genuinely interests me and for whom the mounting buzz seems justified, if at times utterly overblown. It’s when they start placing him with some of the people who have slogged years or decades for the position they’re presently in that it seems just a tad ridiculous.

    Like

    • That’s fair GF except that Abhishek got those kinds of reviews only with a Yuva. It seems a little preposterous to compare APKGK with that sort of thing. Not that the media’s doing it but the terms often become similar. Much as APKGK has garnered better ‘acting’ reviews for Ranbir than Hrithik did for JA. I see the point for sure inasmuch as I consider Ranbir the more genuine actor but the media certainly indulges in the same hyperbole in every such situation which is why this is surprising.

      But leaving aside the media narrative (which incidentally predates his first release!) I have always seen flashes of talent in Ranbir, just not a special actor. APKGK is a very fluid performance (though I think the more serious portions are uneven when it comes to Ranbir) but not an extraordinary one. Rishi Kapoor was a very talented guy who could just never go places (contrary to popular view I don’t believe it was because of the Bachchan age.. Dharmendra was never the topmost star in three different eras). I see Ranbir as part of such a model. He could get very successful, I don’t see a special spark at this point. With hrithik in KNPH one saw what made him an instant sensation (and of course it’s not only about ‘acting’). With SRK in the early 90s but certainly by DDLJ one could see a ‘special’ mix. I haven’t seen that so far here.

      But I also believe that the best star-actors have reinvention ability. To really surprise audiences. Ranbir might well be this. Heck far lesser actors have surprised me. But I don’t see the presence or the spark at this point (even in dozes) to suggest this. But again the terms of the debate have changed greatly. Aamir was no less fluid in a number of his early films. Just that no one overrated him like that. Even SRK in DDLJ just did not get this sort of commentary. Standards have changed greatly and the blandness of most stars makes some of this understandable. I already prefer Ranbir to most of his peers! I just don’t see a great talent in him yet nor a remarkable screen presence. Fluid yes, I am unable to spot those stand-out moments though or even hints of these. Perhaps it’s just me.

      Like

      • The thing is it’s hard to argue either case…he simply hasn’t had enough of a career to really start prognosticating. But predictions aside, natural talent is always a great place to start and “flashes” and such aside, he’s got that. This is where I can see why there’s a certain craze. He’s got the stuff, it’s what he going to make of it that matters from here on out.

        “Standards have changed greatly and the blandness of most stars makes some of this understandable. I already prefer Ranbir to most of his peers!”

        This is definitely a strong point.

        Like

        • This thread should be renamed ‘GF redeemed’.
          On a serious note, I think Jay and Satyam are doing him a disservice by comparing his fourth film with SRK or Hrithik’s best BO outings. The point is not that he has replaced SRK or Hrithik. It is not even that he seems to be headed that way.
          The point is he has delivered a pretty big one with APKGK and seriosuly everyone was caught napping in that they didnt see it coming. That it certainly is no CDI or TZP in content or trendingwise is obvious.
          That does not take away anything from him but it does underline that APKGK is not a CDI or TZP which is not anybodys contention.
          I think two things are getting mixed up here.
          On one hand is Ranbir’s appeal, his growing base and undoubted potential and on the other hand is APKGK’s BO performance. The two are somewhat related but still distinctly separate issues. I hope you can see the point I am making.

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          • Rajen, I am not comparing him with those obviously bigger stars. If anything I am deconstructing some of the bigger stars! And also contextualizing APKGK as an ‘academic’ matter without disagreeing that it means everything for Ranbir because he’s a young star.

            Like

  71. Public sab jaanti hai

    The most-awaited film this year, Kurbaan has turned out to be a turkey. We speak to trade analysts and industry insiders to gauge what went wrong with the film

    By Vickey Lalwani
    Posted On Tuesday, November 24, 2009 at 04:26:10 AM

    2009 has been a very bad year for UTV. After three films — What’s Your Rashee?, Main Aur Mrs Khanna and Kaminey — failed to set the cash registers ringing, they were heavily banking on Karan Johar’s Kurbaan, directed by Rensil D’Silva.

    But their hopes of having a hit were dashed with Kurbaan proving to be a turkey at the box-office.UTV had bought the film from Karan for about Rs 50 crore and released it across 1,700 screens.

    One could understand if the audience gave it a thumbs down after watching it. However, the shocker is that the film didn’t even get a good opening when it released on November 20. Despite being a solo release, it barely managed 35 per cent occupancy on the first day. The box-office collections thereafter have been far from encouraging, flattering reviews from film critics notwithstanding.

    Endorsing the fact that the film did not register more than 40 per cent collections in its first three days, trade analyst Amod Mehra says, “Shockingly, the collections on Sunday were even less than that on Friday and Saturday. The film is a big blow to Dharma Productions and UTV. “

    Mehra adds, “People are not interested in seeing terrorism any longer. New York did fairly well but that’s because it wasn’t publicised as a film based on terrorism. It looked like a very youthful film with fun elements by John and Katrina. The entire publicity of Kurbaan was wrong. If the heroine of Kurbaan doesn’t want her mother to see her steamy scenes with her boyfriend, how can one go with family members to see such a film?”

    Distributor Ramesh Sippy says cautiously, “I don’t want to make any assessment. But yes, Kurbaan has not lived up to its expectations.”

    We also spoke to some of the theatre officials. Manoj Desai (of Maratha Mandir, Gaiety-Galaxy) says, “I registered 80 per cent collections on the first three days whereas it did not go beyond 40 per cent in other theatres. However, the collections have nosedived since yesterday. Koi picture dekhne ke liye tayyar hi nahin hai. The overall feeling is that it’s a very serious and cruel film.”

    An official from Cinemax, Andheri, says, “We had expected that this film would rake in around 85-90 per cent collections. But from day one, we knew that it wouldn’t be a hit. First day, we registered only 40-45 per cent collections. People have not related to the film, it has no repeat value. On Saturday and Sunday, we recorded only 50 per cent ticket sales.”

    Vikram Varma, Fun Republic, communications manager, says, “We recorded 35 per cent in the first three days. But today (Monday), we only have 15-20 per cent occupancy. I think that too many films were released in the past few weeks and this has adversely affected Kurbaan.”

    We then spoke to the public to find out why they haven’t gone kurbaan over Kurbaan. 23-year old Eka Lakhani from Lokhandwala says, “I was dying to see Kurbaan as I had heard a lot about it. The film started very well, but soon I realised that there was neither any love story nor any terrorism track. Kareena and Saif got lost in the second half and I had to look for their scenes together. The terrorism part wasn’t explained well either.”

    34-year-old Menka Chandiramani from Seven Bungalows says, “I was quite impressed by Kareena and Vivek’s acting but the film hasn’t stayed with me. It had nothing new to offer. Moreover, I wonder why there was so much brouhaha about Kareena and Saif’s sex scenes. We have seen much more than this in Hindi films.”

    The director of Kurbaan, Rensil D’Silva, put up a brave front. He says that people are trying to bring down his film. “That happens with every new film. But you know, I am getting a lot of calls and text messages from people whom I don’t even know saying that they have enjoyed my film. I am basically a creative guy. The best people to talk about this will be the distributors of Kurbaan (UTV).” However, Siddharth Roy Kapoor, CEO of UTV remained unavailable for comment.

    Karan’s first film with UTV, Wake Up Sid raked in average returns but failed to be a profit-making proposition. And the audience’s thanda response to Kurbaan has only made things worse for Dharma and UTV

    http://www.mumbaimirror.com/article/30/20091124200911240426105465d934826/Public-sab-jaanti-hai.html

    Like

  72. IBOS have a 24 crore first week total for 2012. pretty amazing!

    Like

  73. Kurbaan US weekend – $403,678

    Like

  74. [2012 has been sensational in India!]

    BOI:

    2012 Emerges A Blockbuster

    Monday 23rd November 2009 13.00 IST

    Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

    2012 has emerged the biggest hit of 2009 and a blockbuster. The film grossed 25 crore nett over its first week from its English and Hindi versions. The dubbed Tamil and Telugu versions may have added a further 8-10 crore nett.

    The Hindi version Pralay Ki Shuruaat grossed around 14.50 crore nett from 400 cinemas while the English version of 2012 grossed 10.50 crore nett from 175 cinemas.

    The second weekend has held rock steady with drops of 40-50% as compared to first weekend. The film was sold at reasonable prices by Sony which have been recovered in the first week itself by distributors in the various circuits. Overall the English and Hindi versions are likely to have a lifetime business of 55 crore nett.

    Like

    • yup read this earlier.. really good.. and it means bad news for rocket singh, atleast and at smaller level 3i when AVATAR RELAEASE..

      Like

  75. BOI on DDD opening:

    De Dana Dhan opened well in its morning shows. The collections for the first few shows were on average in the 70% region. At many places the collections were excellent with full and near full houses while some places in Bengal and South had collections in the 50-60% region.

    E Square in Pune had a 77% start with first show having 450 tickets sold from a possible 584. At Wave Ludhiana the film opened to 100% collections in first two shows with collections being 29,680 for each show. Indore opening ranged from 70-100% while Ahmedabad was 60-70%.

    The morning start is good at multiplexes but not bumper like a Love Aaj Kal. The collections should get better as the day goes along and evening collections have a good chance of being big.

    Like

  76. Bollybusiness on DDD and Kurbaan:

    De Dana Dan Opens To Mixed Response/Kurbaan 17 Crore First Week De Dana Dan opens to mixed response this morning with NCR and Mumbai multiplexes register only 40-50% opening, opening at Pune, Ahamdabad and some centers at Punjab fetch better collection in range of 60 – 70%. However upwards trend can be seen at afternoon shows itself. Single screens are faring better with 80% + response from few reported centers of Meerut, Nagina, Jalandhar and Ghaziabad. Overall first day should see good collections due to wider release. Kurbaan grosses poor collection of 17 Crore NETT in first week. This is horrible collections looking at Scale and budget of movie. Dharma production movie starring Saif and Kareena loaded with 45 Crore price tag has no excuses for such a trashy opening. Opening on 8th day is mere 20% at limited centers.

    Like

  77. IBOS earlier on DDD advance:

    Box Office: Advance booking report for De Dana Dan
    Thursday, November 26, 2009

    Priyadarshan’s Akshay Kumar-Sunil Shetty-Paresh Rawal starrer De Dana Dan may still go onto do a ‘paison ki baarish’ at the Indian box office, however the fallout from the underperformance of previous Akshay Kumar starrers is showing in its advance bookings.

    The bookings for De Dana Dan or D3, were not earth shattering as of Thursday afternoon in India, recording an advance in the multiplexes to the range of about 40%. That’s better than a lot of the big releases of recent past but Akshay Kumar starrers have had much better advance than that.

    Though single screens are showing better bookings, without multiplexes recording a huge windfall over the weekend, it’s difficult for a film to emerge a massive grosser.

    However the reports on the film content are strong and it’s possible, that like All the Best earlier on Diwali, the film may yet pick up in a big way upon Friday release.

    Like

  78. B.O. update: ‘De Dana Dan’ has favourable start
    – By Taran Adarsh, November 27, 2009 – 21:13 IST

    Priyadarshan’s much-awaited DE DANA DAN opened to a 75% start on Day 1. The opening varied from 50% at some screens, at some plexes specifically, but was 80% to 90% at several plexes and single screens too. But the heartening news is that the film is carrying positive reports, with the audience enjoying the film. On Saturday, the business is expected to be huge, since it’s a holiday.

    Like

    • Jay’s hunch on this was right.. the poor run has affected Akshay’s opening here.. the film seems to be off to a good or decent start but certainly not a stupendous one. It will need strong WOM here unless as Taran here suggests that Sat is really that huge.

      Like

  79. BOI:

    De Dana Dhan First Day Business

    Saturday 28th November 2009 16.30 IST

    Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

    De Dana Dhan grossed a good 6.25 crore nett on day one. Saturday being a holiday the film is expected to show big business over the weekend. The first day approx territory breakdowns were as follows. The film did will well in most circuits except South India which was below the mark.

    Mumbai – 2.40 crore

    Delhi/UP – 1.35 crore

    East Punjab – 55 lakhs

    West Bengal – 25 lakhs

    Bihar – 10 lakhs

    CP Berar – 30 lakhs

    CI – 22 lakhs

    Rajasthan – 35 lakhs

    Nizam – 28 lakhs

    Mysore – 22 lakhs

    Others – 15 lakhs

    Like

    • De Dana Dhan Scores Heavily In United Kingdom

      Saturday 28th November 2009 19.30 IST

      Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

      De Dana Dhan had a huge first day in United Kingdom as it grossed £100,000 approx on Friday. This is the second biggest first day of the year after Love Aaj Kal. The film may have a £350,000 plus weekend in United Kingdom. Approx Friday business for some other major releases this year is as follows.

      Love Aaj Kal – £120,000

      Kambakkht Ishq – £83,000

      Blue – £58,000

      Kurbaan – £45,000

      London Dreams – £45,000

      Like

  80. Indore Barometer: ‘De Dana Dan’ rocks, has excellent weekend

    -By Taran Adarsh, November 30, 2009 – 10:51 IST
    DE DANA DAN is going from strength to strength. While the film had an average of 75% start on Friday [good], it was approx. 95% to 100% at practically all screens on Saturday [Eid holiday]. In fact, DDD had one of the biggest Saturdays ever. Sunday too was at par with Saturday, which clearly indicates that the film has been accepted in a big way by the audiences. Let’s check out the opening weekend numbers at Indore.

    Big:
    [F] 1,78,206
    [S] 2,29,275
    [S] 2,61,180

    PVR:
    [F] 3,08,672
    [S] 4,05,048
    [S] 3,87,600

    Inox-I:
    [F] 1,75,662
    [S] 2,49,670
    [S] 3,12,603

    Velocity:
    [F] 1,62,905
    [S] 2,17,803
    [S] 2,47,607

    Inox-II:
    [F] 1,38,643
    [S] 2,24,799
    [S] 2,99,548

    Like

  81. BOI:

    23 Crore Weekend For De Dana Dhan

    Monday 30th November 2009 18.30 IST

    Boxofficeindia.Com Trade Network

    De Dana Dhan grossed 23 crore nett approx over its first weekend. The film did fantastic business in CP Berar CI (Historic) and Rajasthan while North was also very good. The other circuits saw good business.

    The daily breakdowns were 6.25 crore nett on Friday, 8.50 crore nett on Saturday and 8.25 crore nett on Sunday. The business was fantastic on Saturday and Sunday but the film was let down slightly by its Friday business which was good but a bit lower than expectations.

    De Dana Dhan will have to sustain on Monday to become a hit as the film has a high cost. The first week business can come in anywhere in the range of 34-37 crore nett depending on what happens on the weekdays.

    Like

  82. DDD has done qite well and I think will have better legs than recent Thanksgiving dinner offerings from Akshay.

    Like

  83. This thread has started misbehaving with the order of comments getting jumbled up. I think we need a new BO thread.

    Like

    • Yes I’ll put one up for DDD starting this weekend..

      The film looks to be a hit though.. how well it can sustain remains to be seen but what is certain is that the initial was affected on day 1. Clearly akshay’s poor choices caught up with him. And now there’s Paa. If this film works it will entice the family audience in a big way.

      Like

  84. IndiaToday

    The Khiladi of Bollywood, Akshay Kumar, loves playing the audiences and is not bothered by critics. He even doesn’t want to wait for box office collections before declaring his movie a hit.

    Just three days after his latest flick De Dana Dan was released, Akshay is already claiming that it is already a super-duper hit.

    When Headlines Today asked this stunt lover how the movie was performing, Akshay replied, “Hit super hit kuch bhi kaho (whatever you may call it – hit or super hit).”

    Even director Priyadarshan agrees with Akshay. “It’s a super hit film,” he claims.

    But the audience clearly begs to differ. If people’s feedbacks are any indication, they have found the movie ‘boring’.

    It seems, Akshay – the producer – is on a trip of his own and has already declared that this film is a hit. As far as the ratings and critics go, they certainly don’t matter in his world.

    “Critics don’t matter. It (the movie) has had a fabulous opening,” Akshay claimed.

    Critics surely do not matter to Akshay because we was seen celebrating the ’success’ of Kambakkht Ishq, which had fared badly at the box-office!

    One can only advise Akshay to give some more time before jumping to conclusions. While he may go gaga over his film, ultimately it’s the audience who decides if it is a hit or a flop!

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