Abzee’s Oscar Predix 2014

With under a couple of hours to go before the list of nominees are announced for the 86^th Academy Awards, here are my late-in-the-day no-guts-no-glory predictions. This precursor season has been quite a chaotic one as compared to the previous years with quite a few major changes and reversals of fortune with regards to films and performances and individuals. Just ask Robert Redford who went from a certain lock to win the Oscar for his one-man act in ALL IS LOST to now having to fight it out for the fifth spot even in the Leading Male category. As late as this week, the Golden Globes did its stunning bit in giving AMERICAN HUSTLE a major boost to its already snow-balling momentum that could take it beyond the critical darling 12 YEARS A SLAVE and pip it to the Oscar post. The Globes were also responsible to make AMERICAN HUSTLE’s Jennifer Lawrence’s case stronger for a second consecutive Oscar at just 23 years of age.

Here then is how I see the Ballot being read out tonight, before we endure a 45-day screening & lobbying season before the Oscars are eventually handed out on the 2^nd of March. All nominations are in alphabetical order.

Best Picture
12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
GRAVITY
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

If one were to go with the traditional 5 nominees, the above 5 should make it with NEBRASKA making a very strong bid to get in instead of THE WOLF OF WALL STREET which is just an unpredictable beast this Oscar race given its polarizing reaction.

However, since the Academy has revised its rules to allow anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees based on how many films deserve to be nominated (arrived at on a calculation of no.1 votes and number of votes in the total polling tally), the following films also have a chance to get nominated in the following order-

If they nominate 6 films, then the film that gets in will be
NEBRASKA
If 7, then
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
If 8,
PHILOMENA
9,
HER
And if 10,
SAVING MR. BANKS

The Coen Bros.’ INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS has an outside shot of making it to the final ten, while Woody Allen’s BLUE JASMINE is a long shot.

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron GRAVITY
Paul Greengrass CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Steve McQueen 12 YEARS A SLAVE
David O. Russell AMERICAN HUSTLE
Martin Scorsese THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Cuaron, McQueen and Russell are a sure lock in what is Cuaron’s race to lose. The final two spots are up for grabs. Spike Jonze for HER can take Scorsese’s place here as THE WOLF OF WALL STREET has been a divisive film. Alexander Payne can sneak in for NEBRASKA given how popular he is with the Academy.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bruce Dern NEBRASKA
Leonardo DiCaprio THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Chiwetel Ejiofor 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Tom Hanks CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Matthew McConaughey DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
In what had started out as the year to reward Robert Redford’s legacy for his work on ALL IS LOST, that campaign hook was soon adopted by Bruce Dern, while the ascension of the cry to honour DiCaprio’s work has been escalating has almost made it certain that Redford only has an outside chance of getting in now.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams AMERICAN HUSTLE
Cate Blanchett BLUE JASMINE
Sandra Bullock GRAVITY
Judi Dench PHILOMENA
Emma Thompson SAVING MR. BANKS
This has been a one-horse race from September, with Cate Blanchett topping every Critics’ list and winning all the precursor awards. This list remains interesting then only to see if the late-rise of Amy Adams can do enough to unseat the otherwise reflexive choice Meryl Streep for AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Daniel Bruhl RUSH
Bradley Cooper AMERICAN HUSTLE
Michael Fassbender 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Jared Leto DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
The final 2 spots in this race are a close call between 3, so expect Jonah Hill to make a showing here at the expense of either Cooper or Bruhl. James Gandolfini has an outside shot of getting a posthumous nomination for his sensitive performance in ENOUGH SAID.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence AMERICAN HUSTLE
Lupita Nyong’O 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Julia Roberts AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
June Squibb NEBRASKA
Oprah Winfrey THE BUTLER
This race kept building up as Nyong’O’s to lose, until all hell broke loose over the last couple of weeks with Jennifer Lawrence’s afterglow effect of last year’s Oscar win helping her bag quite a few precursor awards. There should be no surprises here, with BLUE JASMINE’s Sally Hawkins having a very very long shot.

Best Foreign Film
BROKEN CIRCLE BREAKDOWN Belgium
THE GREAT BEAUTY Italy
THE HUNT Denmark
OMAR Palestine
TWO LIVES Germany
The fifth spot is up for grabs, and Cambodia’s THE MISSING PICTURE can easily get in, in place of Palestine. Hong Kong’s THE GRANDMASTER has surprisingly been a non-starter the entire awards season.

Best Original Screenplay
AMERICAN HUSTLE Eric Singer & David O. Russell
BLUE JASMINE Woody Allen
HER Spike Jonze
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS Coen Bros.
NEBRASKA Bob Nelson
Don’t see any surprises here, and DALLAS BUYERS CLUB has an extremely long shot.

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 YEARS A SLAVE John Ridley
AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY Tracy Letts
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Billy Ray
PHILOMENA Steve Coogan & Jeff Pope
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET Terence Winter
The acting duo Delpy-Hawke and their director Linklater’s BEFORE MIDNIGHT can be a spoiler here. 12 YEARS & PHILOMENA are far ahead of the pack, so expect any of the other three to make room for BEFORE MIDNIGHT should that happen.

Best Cinematography
12 YEARS A SLAVE Sean Bobbitt
GRAVITY Emmanuel Lubezki
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS Bruno Delbonnel
NEBRASKA Phedon Papamichael
PRISONERS Roger Deakins
This appears to be a sure list, with CAPTAIN PHILLIPS and THE GRANDMASTER knocking quite a distance away to get in.

Best Editing
12 YEARS A SLAVE Joe Walker
AMERICAN HUSTLE Jay Cassidy & Crispin Struthers
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Christopher Rouse
GRAVITY Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger
RUSH Daniel P. Hanley & Mike Hill
Legendary Thelma Schoonmaker is on the fringes of this list trying to get in for her last minute meet-the-deadline edit job on THE WOLF OF WALL STREET.

Best Original Score
12 YEARS A SLAVE Hans Zimmer
ALL IS LOST Alex Ebert
THE BOOK THIEF John Williams
GRAVITY Steven Price
PHILOMENA Alexandre Desplat
Thomas Newman’s score for SAVING MR. BANKS has a fair shot of making it to the final five.

– Abhishek Bandekar