Jayshahs 2015 Box Office Predictions

Recap of 2014 – overall I would say I got PK, Kick, Singham 2 verdicts right. I expected Jai Ho, Bang Bang and Happy New Year to collect better and attain better verdicts but all underperformed. Holiday did better than I expected. Of course these are my verdicts based on opening, week 1 and trending there on.

Jai Ho – My prediction was a bigger gross, but the sentiment was that this one will underperform and that it did. My final verdict : Below Average
Prediction : 140-160 crores
Predicted Verdict : Above average

Thupakki Remake – Holiday trended well to go over 100 crore. Got this one wrong as it was a success but not a huge one. My final verdict : Semi-Hit
Prediction : < 100 crores
Predicted Verdict : Flop

P.K – Spot on, though I did not stick my neck completely on the line. The biggest grosser of 2014 by a mile. My final verdict : Blockbuster
Prediction : > 250 crores
Predicted Verdict : Blockbuster

Roy – Did not release
Prediction : <100 crores
Predicted Verdict : Below Average

Kick – Kick did pretty well. Salman Khan still gets the lighting openings and Kick was not different taking EID into account. It trended better than Dabangg 2, Bodyguard and Jai Ho, ETT. My final verdict : Semi-Hit
Prediction : 150-170 crores
Predicted Verdict : Semi-Hit

Phantom – Did not release
Prediction : 70-90 crores
Predicted Verdict : Flop

Singham 2 – Although I got the prediction wrong, I would agree with the verdict. A big start was followed by a huge slide. My final verdict : Below Average
Prediction : 80-100 crores
Predicted Verdict : Below Average

Bang Bang – The collections aren’t far off from the top end. But again like Singham 2, this one is a huge underperformer. My final verdict : Below Average
Prediction : 120-140 crores
Predicted Verdict : Hit

Happy New Year – Another underperformer. After a historic start, Happy New Year just could not carry any momentum through. My final verdict : Average
Prediction : 220-240 crores
Predicted Verdict : SuperHit

Bombay Velvet – Did not release
Prediction : > 100 crores
Predicted Verdict : SemiHit

Predictions for 2015 (based on current release schedule)

Gabbar – Akshay Kumar, Shruti Hasan
Positives – After Rowdy Rathore & Holiday, a film in this genre and one to follow Baby might be a catalyst for success this year for Akshay Kumar. He has a ripe release schedule with 4 films.
Negatives – The lack of female star power will hinder the films prospects. A debut for Krish in Hindi format will be interesting. And potential competition from Phantom as well will hinder collections initially.
Prediction : 90 – 110 crore (based on release alongside Phantom)
Verdict : Below Average – I am not expecting this to do well, just don’t feel the combination will excite the audiences. However, if Baby works well, the chances will be better.

Bombay Velvet – Ranbir Kapoor, Anushka Sharma, Naseeruddin Shah
Positives – Anurag Kashyap’s first really big film. This could be a surprise or possibly a mess. An interesting year for Ranbir Kapoor as this is the kind of risk that could be the making of him. And Anushka Sharma after PK is on a high.
Negatives – A test of Anurag’s credentials in a different sense as this is his biggest film.
Prediction : > 120 crores
Verdict : Semi-Hit – I expect this to be a well put together film but not a runaway success. A Jodha Akbar type of performance.

Bajraangi Bhaijaan – Salman Khan, Kareena Kapoor
Positives – Kabir Khan returns with Salman Khan after Ek Ta Tiger which posted a record breaking first week in 2012. I like the title and it would be hard to bet against this one also taking a huge start.
Negatives – Kareena Kapoor and Salman Khan Jodi in Bodyguard did not cut it. Early rumours of controversy may hurt the film.
Prediction : 200 – 220 crores
Verdict : Semi-Hit – Along the lines of Kick, I expect this to open big and have a decent second week too.

Brothers – Akshay Kumar, Siddharth Malhotra
Positives – It depends how Akshay’s first 2 films fair in the year but this could be an interesting option for his top grosser in the year. Alongside Siddharth Malhotra hot from the success of Ek Villain and remake of Warrior, this film is also produced by Karan Johar and he leaves no stones unturned when it comes to giving visibility to his films.
Negatives – I sense a theme with Akshay Kumar’s films that the female leads this year may play spoil sport. However, Jacqueline Fernandez did not hinder Kick so every chance here it might not matter.
Prediction : 110 – 130 crores
Verdict : Average – I expect this to do decent business. Much depends on how Baby/Gabbar fair and where Akshay’s status is when this arrives.

Fan – Shahrukh Khan
Positives – Yashraj & SRK join hands again. Curiosity will definitely be here and after Band Baaja Baaraat success, Maneesh Sharma returns. AR Rahman provides the music and Lata/Kumar return to sing and the film releases on Independence weekend. One expects more substance than SRK’s last couple of films and a smaller budget and lower expectations than Happy New Year box office wise.
Negatives – A lightning opening should not be expected. Yashraj promote their films with SRK lightly and this will probably be no different.
Prediction : 150 – 170 crores
Verdict : Hit – I expect this to be a neatly put together film, with SRK getting a decent role. YRF getting AR Rahman on board is a good sign.

Jagga Jasoos – Ranbir Kapoor, Katrina Kaif
Positives – Real life couple should add some hype here. In addition the Jodi has tasted success twice before. Music by Pritam should ensure popular music.
Negatives – I can’t think of many. I suspect this will be a big success.
Prediction : Ranbir Kapoor enters the 200 crore club (just)
Verdict : Super Hit – This is my “going out on a limb moment”. The combination is successful and the music if popular could give Ranbir a shot at 200 crore.

Singh is Bling – Akshay Kumar, Kirti Sanon
Positives – Even though not a sequel to Singh is Kinng, the similarity in title and the fact that Akshay Kumar plays a Sardar may bring some positive recall value.
Negatives – Comedy and outright comedy has not got much more than 100 crores. I would not expect that to change too much here.
Prediction : 110 – 130 crores
Verdict : Below Average – The least appealing of all of Akshay’s film this year may still end up beaing his top grosser. Singh is Kinng opened huge in 2008 and a good opening here should be expected.

Prem Ratan Dhan Payo – Salman Khan, Sonam Kapoor
Positives – Sooraj Barjatya returns and Prem returns. After delivering one of the biggest blockbusters of all time in Hum Aapke Hain Koun, the trade will place their money on this film to end the year as the top grosser.
Negatives – There are a few questions to be asked. Which Barjatya will turn up and even if it is the right one, is he in the right era? Sonam Kapoor should have been replaced by Deepika or Priyanka. This is a hard film to predict because it could be hit or miss and is less dependent on Salman and more on Barjatya.
Prediction : 220 – 240 crore
Verdict : Semi-Hit – I’ve chosen to sit on the fence here. The film will open to records IMO but will struggle after the initial. I don’t think it will get to the 300 crores mark as I don’t see Sonam Kapoor exciting the audiences like Madhuri did in the mid 90’s. But there will be enough sentiment to get some sort of success.

Bajirao Mastani – Ranvir Singh, Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone
Positives – After Ram Leela, this film, will be eagerly awaited. Bhansali will be smart to cash in on the potential chemistry and follow the path of Ram Leela’s juice. Another good musical score should be expected
Negatives – Bhansali’s inconsistent record, Ranvir’s patchy record.
Prediction : 120 – 140 crore
Verdict : Hit – It would be hard to bet against this one even for the inconsistencies present.

Tamasha – Ranbir Kapoor, Deepika Padukone
Positives – The Yeh Jeewani Hai Deewani team returns, and Imtiaz Ali returns. Fireworks should be expected
Negatives – I can’t sense any
Prediction : 210 – 230 crore
Verdict : Super Hit – If all goes well for Ranbir, 2015 *could* be his. This film though is unlikely to release in Xmas against Bajirao Mastani as both star Deepika, but when it does I expect it to be a big success.

Honourable mentions to Baby, Shamitabh, Badlapur, Phantom, Piku, Welcome Back, All is Well who are all capable of surprises and becoming hits.

Movers and Shakers

And there you have it. Yes my prediction for the year is Ranbir Kapoor will record 3 hits, 2 that will be Super Hits. Salman will follow with 2 solid performers. Akshay Kumar has the possibility to pick up a couple of hits but I don’t think he will (his best bet is Baby but likely the smallest film for him this year). SRK has a strong chance with Fan to get a popular film with audiences. In the absence of Aamir and Hrithik films…expect Salman to pick up the top grosser of the year and Ranbir to swim with the sharks with back to back super hits and enter the top bracket.

Deepika Padukone is expected to lead the way again. Katrina Kaif should get a big hit. And Kareena in some blink and you miss roles will probably still get at least one hit.

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35 Responses to “Jayshahs 2015 Box Office Predictions”

  1. Seems to be a good year for bollywood.

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  2. Barjatya’s film may hit the roof. It will be the biggest hit if the music is right. Sonam Kapoor may surprise us.

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  3. Hopefully Bollywood filmmakers and film audience will grow out of Box office numbers and talk about films that they actually like(d).

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  4. Kareena has been replaced by Kirti Sanon in Singh is Bling..

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  5. ranbir is the guy who is likely to knock at the doors of 150-200 cr repeatedly in next few years – he might just have an outside chance for 300 cr some day………..

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  6. Do you have any credible source for your information about Fan’s music? I don’t think I’ve heard ARR talk about this anywhere yet.

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  7. Didn’t want to puncture the bubble here -but couldn’t resist
    What balderdash !!
    It’s one thing to get it wrong
    It’s another to get it wrong totally and so consistently !! And it’s another to try to get credit for being honest !! Wtf

    In 2014–this person got EVERYTHIMG wrong
    From singham2 to kick to bang bang to HNY to holiday to almost everything inspite of giving safe predictions like 250!!

    A semi comatose human with half a medulla (only) working will be able to to predict that ?!

    And then he/she has the gumption to give his ‘final verdict’ POST event –& to top it all comes out with gutter rubbish aka prediction for 2015..
    And guess what –this is the ‘showcase’ post here hahaha
    Will stop there b4 running the drill totally on this creature …lol

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  8. Great read as always Jay… one can debate some of your points but they’re all eminently reasonable. Of course some here expect you to be as ‘accurate’ as the Roshans but that’s another matter. I’m quite skeptical of that gross on Bombay Velvet mostly because of Kashyap’s track record but this certainly is his best shot ever to get close to that range. I’d be surprised at more than 70 or so here, specially with reports of reshoots and Ranbir not being happy and so on. But your prediction is certainly within the realm of possibility. In any engaging post as always.

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  9. Utkal Mohanty Says:

    “I’d be surprised at more than 70 or so here, specially with reports of reshoots and Ranbir not being happy . ” In fact it is these rumours that make me hopeful. W\weren’t there similar rumours about PK as well?

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  10. Current Ranking (Male)

    1. Salman
    2. SRK
    3. Aamir
    4. Hrithik
    5. Ranbir/Akshay

    So based on this, Following is my prediction:

    All Time Blockbuster:
    Prem Ratan Dhan Paayo

    Blockbuster:
    Fan
    Jagga Jasoos
    Tamasha
    Bajrangi Bhaijaan

    SuperHits:
    Gabbar
    Bajorao Mastani

    Hits:
    Baby
    Brothers

    Flops:
    Singh is Bling
    Bombay Velvet

    Note-

    1. All ratings are as per BOI standard
    2. I have picked movies from Jayshah’s list and have added Baby which i think needs to be there because of Neeraj Pandey.

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    • I openly challenge the biased and (movie flop hai without seeing it king) – Jayshah to compare my list with his by end of 2015 and nominate Sanjana as observer.

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      • Naveen/Apex – it is a thankless task responding to Harry and Lloyd. So I will not bother in much detail.
        Why don’t you both sober down, watch a few Akki/Hrithik flicks to get you in the mood and meet up with each other. Fireworks will fly I promise you as it seems both your minds are pretty much in sync. Between the two of you, you may even conjure up a thought or two.

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    • Please add crores in front of the movies.

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      • Does Matter Munna…it is quite clear that Jayshah’s Crs are not imp but his biased classifications. I just want to contest that bias.
        It is surprising that after claiming anyone in SS can come with their own prediction and he shall see it who does better, he is silent on my open challenge. I even made Sanjan as observer (and not Satyam for obvious reasons, which Jayshah would have wanted to help him spin a theory in case he loses which he will…i know)…but then he is nonchalant about it. Silence of the Lamb!!! Manmohan ke baan MaunShah.

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        • With several corrections —pls ignore or better delete my previous comment.
          Doesn’t Matter Munna…it is quite clear that Jayshah’s Crs are not imp to me but his biased classifications are. I want to contest that bias.
          It is surprising that after he claiming that anyone in SS can come with their own prediction and he shall see it who does better, he is silent on my dare. I even made Sanjana as observer (and not Satyam for obvious reasons, which Jayshah would have wanted to finally help him spin an Arnab Goswami theory in case he loses which he will…i know)…but then he is nonchalant about it. Silence of the Lamb!!! Manmohan ke baad MaunShah.

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  11. Utkal Mohanty Says:

    Predictions for 2015

    Sometimes back I had posted in this forum, stating that the year 2014 has Sharukh, Salmna, Aamir, Hritik, Ajay and Akshay all releasing big films in mainstream, commercial format. And at the end of the year, doodh ka doodh paani ka paani ho jayega. In December, Danish had declared Kick and hence Salman , the winner, but said he would wait till the run of PK to formally declare that. Well, things have changed somewhat since then. Doodh ka doodh, paani ka pani ho gaya,. With 340 cr net in Indi a25mn + USD overseas and 60o cr worldwide gross Aamir is the unquestionable Number 1. And these figures are not going to be matched next year either.

    But the race for No 2, 3, 4 and 5 is quite hot next year. Shahrukh, Salman and Ranbir have excellent films with fresh subjects and talented directors lined up. So the positions 2, 3 and 4 will be filled by these 3. About the No 5 I am betting on Ranvir in Bajirao Mastani and Shahid in Shaandar over Akshay’s Gabbar and Baby, especially Ranvir’s Bajirao. Let’s wait and see.

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  12. Its really unfortunate that no one is talking about abhishek’s all is well.He wasted three years for supporting roles in bol bachchan,d3 and hny.no use for his career.

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    • well he got a great deal out of BB, he got quite a bit out of HNY as well (in fact I’d argue he was pretty much the only guy who might have been helped here), D3 was a write-off for him. But it now gets to the solo stage (All is Well, Happy Anniversay — according to the director the shoot starts in Feb, then the action home production that’s been pushed back because of the All is well reshoot) and he obviously has to really prove things now. He has to pull that significant success and/or big one on his own now. To be talked about in the terms that he was being talked about for some years he will have to come up with that sort of solo success and then in turn attract more sure-shot projects, more prestige stuff and so on and of course maintain that success ratio. But hey no one said it was easy!

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      • Aptly summed up, Satyam: this is a business that is as much about “buzz” as about substantive results (not suggesting there isn’t a correlation between the two) and Abhishek’s biggest issue at present is that he is “absent” on that front. In fact even a more successful star like Hrithik faces this problem to a(n) (lesser) extent, where the buzz has migrated to a newer generation (the likes of Ranvir Singh)… and in order to be part of the conversation you need attention for solos, or at least films riding on you…

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  13. Seems to be the wrong link… I was trying to post .Anupma Chopra’s list for 2015 is
    1.Detective Bakhshi
    2.Fan
    3.Bombay Velvet
    4.Dil Dhadkney do
    5.Bajirao Mastani

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  14. The case for Aamir Khan being No 1 at the moment exists esp after Dhoom 3 and now PK. However common perception outside of Aamir khan fans are very important. Unless they tell that he is No 1, he cannot be.
    In case of Aamitabh it happenned.
    In case of Salman it happened.

    I do not know what Aamir has to do but he doesn’t commance the respect the way Salman does. Now I do not know why?

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  15. I don’t think I will bet on Any Akshay movies getting to 100 crores. If Murugadoss is directing Gabbar there is a chance though

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  16. Time to revisit these predictions.

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  17. Baby, Shamitabh, Roy.

    Ranbir has to wait for a hit.

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