Jayshahs 2015 Box Office Predictions

Recap of 2014 – overall I would say I got PK, Kick, Singham 2 verdicts right. I expected Jai Ho, Bang Bang and Happy New Year to collect better and attain better verdicts but all underperformed. Holiday did better than I expected. Of course these are my verdicts based on opening, week 1 and trending there on.

Jai Ho – My prediction was a bigger gross, but the sentiment was that this one will underperform and that it did. My final verdict : Below Average
Prediction : 140-160 crores
Predicted Verdict : Above average

Thupakki Remake – Holiday trended well to go over 100 crore. Got this one wrong as it was a success but not a huge one. My final verdict : Semi-Hit
Prediction : < 100 crores
Predicted Verdict : Flop

P.K – Spot on, though I did not stick my neck completely on the line. The biggest grosser of 2014 by a mile. My final verdict : Blockbuster
Prediction : > 250 crores
Predicted Verdict : Blockbuster

Roy – Did not release
Prediction : <100 crores
Predicted Verdict : Below Average

Kick – Kick did pretty well. Salman Khan still gets the lighting openings and Kick was not different taking EID into account. It trended better than Dabangg 2, Bodyguard and Jai Ho, ETT. My final verdict : Semi-Hit
Prediction : 150-170 crores
Predicted Verdict : Semi-Hit

Phantom – Did not release
Prediction : 70-90 crores
Predicted Verdict : Flop

Singham 2 – Although I got the prediction wrong, I would agree with the verdict. A big start was followed by a huge slide. My final verdict : Below Average
Prediction : 80-100 crores
Predicted Verdict : Below Average

Bang Bang – The collections aren’t far off from the top end. But again like Singham 2, this one is a huge underperformer. My final verdict : Below Average
Prediction : 120-140 crores
Predicted Verdict : Hit

Happy New Year – Another underperformer. After a historic start, Happy New Year just could not carry any momentum through. My final verdict : Average
Prediction : 220-240 crores
Predicted Verdict : SuperHit

Bombay Velvet – Did not release
Prediction : > 100 crores
Predicted Verdict : SemiHit

Predictions for 2015 (based on current release schedule)

Gabbar – Akshay Kumar, Shruti Hasan
Positives – After Rowdy Rathore & Holiday, a film in this genre and one to follow Baby might be a catalyst for success this year for Akshay Kumar. He has a ripe release schedule with 4 films.
Negatives – The lack of female star power will hinder the films prospects. A debut for Krish in Hindi format will be interesting. And potential competition from Phantom as well will hinder collections initially.
Prediction : 90 – 110 crore (based on release alongside Phantom)
Verdict : Below Average – I am not expecting this to do well, just don’t feel the combination will excite the audiences. However, if Baby works well, the chances will be better.

Bombay Velvet – Ranbir Kapoor, Anushka Sharma, Naseeruddin Shah
Positives – Anurag Kashyap’s first really big film. This could be a surprise or possibly a mess. An interesting year for Ranbir Kapoor as this is the kind of risk that could be the making of him. And Anushka Sharma after PK is on a high.
Negatives – A test of Anurag’s credentials in a different sense as this is his biggest film.
Prediction : > 120 crores
Verdict : Semi-Hit – I expect this to be a well put together film but not a runaway success. A Jodha Akbar type of performance.

Bajraangi Bhaijaan – Salman Khan, Kareena Kapoor
Positives – Kabir Khan returns with Salman Khan after Ek Ta Tiger which posted a record breaking first week in 2012. I like the title and it would be hard to bet against this one also taking a huge start.
Negatives – Kareena Kapoor and Salman Khan Jodi in Bodyguard did not cut it. Early rumours of controversy may hurt the film.
Prediction : 200 – 220 crores
Verdict : Semi-Hit – Along the lines of Kick, I expect this to open big and have a decent second week too.

Brothers – Akshay Kumar, Siddharth Malhotra
Positives – It depends how Akshay’s first 2 films fair in the year but this could be an interesting option for his top grosser in the year. Alongside Siddharth Malhotra hot from the success of Ek Villain and remake of Warrior, this film is also produced by Karan Johar and he leaves no stones unturned when it comes to giving visibility to his films.
Negatives – I sense a theme with Akshay Kumar’s films that the female leads this year may play spoil sport. However, Jacqueline Fernandez did not hinder Kick so every chance here it might not matter.
Prediction : 110 – 130 crores
Verdict : Average – I expect this to do decent business. Much depends on how Baby/Gabbar fair and where Akshay’s status is when this arrives.

Fan – Shahrukh Khan
Positives – Yashraj & SRK join hands again. Curiosity will definitely be here and after Band Baaja Baaraat success, Maneesh Sharma returns. AR Rahman provides the music and Lata/Kumar return to sing and the film releases on Independence weekend. One expects more substance than SRK’s last couple of films and a smaller budget and lower expectations than Happy New Year box office wise.
Negatives – A lightning opening should not be expected. Yashraj promote their films with SRK lightly and this will probably be no different.
Prediction : 150 – 170 crores
Verdict : Hit – I expect this to be a neatly put together film, with SRK getting a decent role. YRF getting AR Rahman on board is a good sign.

Jagga Jasoos – Ranbir Kapoor, Katrina Kaif
Positives – Real life couple should add some hype here. In addition the Jodi has tasted success twice before. Music by Pritam should ensure popular music.
Negatives – I can’t think of many. I suspect this will be a big success.
Prediction : Ranbir Kapoor enters the 200 crore club (just)
Verdict : Super Hit – This is my “going out on a limb moment”. The combination is successful and the music if popular could give Ranbir a shot at 200 crore.

Singh is Bling – Akshay Kumar, Kirti Sanon
Positives – Even though not a sequel to Singh is Kinng, the similarity in title and the fact that Akshay Kumar plays a Sardar may bring some positive recall value.
Negatives – Comedy and outright comedy has not got much more than 100 crores. I would not expect that to change too much here.
Prediction : 110 – 130 crores
Verdict : Below Average – The least appealing of all of Akshay’s film this year may still end up beaing his top grosser. Singh is Kinng opened huge in 2008 and a good opening here should be expected.

Prem Ratan Dhan Payo – Salman Khan, Sonam Kapoor
Positives – Sooraj Barjatya returns and Prem returns. After delivering one of the biggest blockbusters of all time in Hum Aapke Hain Koun, the trade will place their money on this film to end the year as the top grosser.
Negatives – There are a few questions to be asked. Which Barjatya will turn up and even if it is the right one, is he in the right era? Sonam Kapoor should have been replaced by Deepika or Priyanka. This is a hard film to predict because it could be hit or miss and is less dependent on Salman and more on Barjatya.
Prediction : 220 – 240 crore
Verdict : Semi-Hit – I’ve chosen to sit on the fence here. The film will open to records IMO but will struggle after the initial. I don’t think it will get to the 300 crores mark as I don’t see Sonam Kapoor exciting the audiences like Madhuri did in the mid 90’s. But there will be enough sentiment to get some sort of success.

Bajirao Mastani – Ranvir Singh, Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone
Positives – After Ram Leela, this film, will be eagerly awaited. Bhansali will be smart to cash in on the potential chemistry and follow the path of Ram Leela’s juice. Another good musical score should be expected
Negatives – Bhansali’s inconsistent record, Ranvir’s patchy record.
Prediction : 120 – 140 crore
Verdict : Hit – It would be hard to bet against this one even for the inconsistencies present.

Tamasha – Ranbir Kapoor, Deepika Padukone
Positives – The Yeh Jeewani Hai Deewani team returns, and Imtiaz Ali returns. Fireworks should be expected
Negatives – I can’t sense any
Prediction : 210 – 230 crore
Verdict : Super Hit – If all goes well for Ranbir, 2015 *could* be his. This film though is unlikely to release in Xmas against Bajirao Mastani as both star Deepika, but when it does I expect it to be a big success.

Honourable mentions to Baby, Shamitabh, Badlapur, Phantom, Piku, Welcome Back, All is Well who are all capable of surprises and becoming hits.

Movers and Shakers –

And there you have it. Yes my prediction for the year is Ranbir Kapoor will record 3 hits, 2 that will be Super Hits. Salman will follow with 2 solid performers. Akshay Kumar has the possibility to pick up a couple of hits but I don’t think he will (his best bet is Baby but likely the smallest film for him this year). SRK has a strong chance with Fan to get a popular film with audiences. In the absence of Aamir and Hrithik films…expect Salman to pick up the top grosser of the year and Ranbir to swim with the sharks with back to back super hits and enter the top bracket.

Deepika Padukone is expected to lead the way again. Katrina Kaif should get a big hit. And Kareena in some blink and you miss roles will probably still get at least one hit.