JayShah Box Office Column – Housefull Week 2

Assumptions

  • Using Film Information data
  • To arrive at current week collections I take previous week and compare with current week to arrive at a weekly % drop
  • I then take my prior week estimate and multiply by the % drop
  • Current week collections = Prior week * % drop (based on like for like centres) * % cinemas drop
  • % cinemas drop is the reported # of cinemas from Film Information – it adds a parameter for size of release for the same film
  • # of Cinemas shouldn’t be confused with screen size as the former is independent variable for a movie whereas latter is something for comparing with other movies – an example is HF4 increased coverage in Ahmedabad from 16 to 31 cinemas whereas most stations remained same as first week with nil changes, some reduced too.
HF4 W1 HF4 W2 Total
Week 1 Like for like centres 853,449,307 331,410,037
# centres ratio
173 39%
# cinemas 721 710
# cinemas ratio 98%
Film Information
Reported Collections 86 33 119
Unreported Collections 49 15 64
Total Collections 134 48 183
Ratio Reported/Unreported 64% 69% 65%
Jayshah Est 128 49 177
Kadel 115 33 148
Jaiswal 115 33 148
BOI 136 49 185
Komal 134 48 183
Bollywood Hungama 129 47 176
Addatoday 141 48 190
Average excluding jayshah 128 43 172
Week 2 est = Cinema Ratio * Collection Ratio * Week 1 Est = 98% * 39% * 128crore

My week 2 estimate for HF4 is 49Cr. This is a solid hold considering 1st week had multiple holidays to give an element of front loading, though this front loading only happened post Day 4 after Diwali Day. Considering this hold of 61% fall week on week the movie has done well in it’s second week.

Total collections are 177Cr which is above the average of all other sources. Once again my numbers are closest to Bollywood Hungama and actually my 2nd week is the highest of all estimated numbers.

Examples of territory and centre trends are below

Major Territory Sum of HF4 W1 Sum of HF4 W2 Ratio
BENGAL 49,189,620 19,474,828 -60%
BOMBAY CITY-SUBURBS 163,599,847 53,521,247 -67%
C.I. 32,269,884 15,740,042 -51%
C.P. BERAR 38,025,489 18,770,358 -51%
DELHI CITY-SUBURBS 70,359,095 27,314,403 -61%
EAST PUNJAB 67,147,960 23,427,001 -65%
GOA 7,391,382 3,112,853 -58%
GUJARAT 91,762,281 44,172,207 -52%
KARNATAKA 4,519,311 2,020,092 -55%
MAHARASHTRA 57,217,780 25,100,591 -56%
RAJASTHAN 66,377,796 26,780,249 -60%
SAURASHTRA 15,467,154 5,155,286 -67%
SOUTH 70,891,666 24,805,660 -65%
U.P. 119,230,042 42,015,220 -65%
Grand Total 853,449,307 331,410,037 -61%

 

The highlight below is Ahmedabad where 15 additional cinemas showed HF4 vs first week leading to a drop of only 24% in collections.

Centre HF4 W1 HF4 W2 % drop
BOMBAY 97,067,404 29,604,127 -70%
DELHI 70,359,095 27,314,403 -61%
THANE 66,341,981 23,846,928 -64%
PUNE 38,046,825 16,173,348 -57%
JAIPUR 35,046,346 13,433,456 -62%
AHMEDABAD 29,349,457 22,257,749 -24%
BANGALORE 28,554,743 10,342,130 -64%
SURAT 26,881,037 10,184,908 -62%
CALCUTTA 23,683,867 8,545,237 -64%
LUCKNOW 22,128,357 6,445,123 -71%
NOIDA 18,276,654 7,538,094 -59%
GHAZIABAD 17,507,967 6,337,537 -64%
HYDERABAD 17,007,517 5,098,505 -70%
GURGAON 16,086,554 6,750,481 -58%
BARODA 14,241,240 4,365,605 -69%
KANPUR 11,881,610 4,770,507 -60%
INDORE 11,504,840 6,217,159 -46%
AGRA 9,758,028 3,459,455 -65%
RAIPUR 8,347,438 4,226,994 -49%
BHOPAL 8,277,096 3,953,642 -52%
NAGPUR 8,030,253 4,389,533 -45%
FARIDABAD 7,871,508 2,946,837 -63%
GOA 7,391,382 3,112,853 -58%
NASIK 7,363,805 3,604,835 -51%
RAJKOT 6,716,067 2,431,394 -64%
JODHPUR 6,409,376 2,627,659 -59%
AURANGABAD 5,800,894 2,476,739 -57%
ALLAHABAD 5,712,497 1,482,851 -74%
BHUBANESHWAR 5,323,835 1,608,459 -70%
AJMER 5,319,923 1,843,605 -65%
LUDHIANA 5,089,463 1,216,807 -76%
JAMNAGAR 4,907,452 1,563,931 -68%
KOTA 4,774,974 1,951,994 -59%
UDAIPUR 4,654,699 2,678,153 -42%
DEHRADUN 4,511,028 1,797,429 -60%
CHANDIGARH 4,488,425 1,481,157 -67%
GWALIOR 4,134,317 1,846,370 -55%
BILASPUR 4,009,418 1,970,924 -51%
GUWAHATI 3,951,046 1,436,120 -64%
MADRAS 3,824,934 1,287,903 -66%
SILIGURI 3,337,330 1,428,903 -57%
AMRITSAR 3,244,747 910,747 -72%
ALIGARH 3,231,192 939,172 -71%
BHILAI 3,210,319 1,422,951 -56%
RANCHI 3,181,463 1,453,932 -54%
JALANDHAR 3,138,976 914,978 -71%
KOLHAPUR 3,126,130 1,479,365 -53%
GANDHINAGAR 3,040,352 1,318,397 -57%
MEERUT 3,038,861 1,072,743 -65%
NADIAD 2,987,331 928,819 -69%
BHARUCH 2,946,587 995,853 -66%
GORAKHPUR 2,881,602 1,271,739 -56%
BAREILLY 2,832,058 895,526 -68%
GANDHIDHAM 2,780,431 895,744 -68%
MOHALI 2,748,844 987,790 -64%
AMRAVATI 2,743,900 1,675,481 -39%
BHILWARA 2,734,425 1,463,457 -46%
PATNA 2,701,709 1,224,850 -55%
JALGAON 2,681,741 1,161,035 -57%
LATUR 2,567,643 1,242,966 -52%
SANGLI 2,432,818 1,022,569 -58%
MORADABAD 2,370,620 677,162 -71%
UJJAIN 2,362,994 1,108,022 -53%
JAMMU 2,354,108 848,880 -64%
HUBLI 2,337,094 1,086,697 -54%
PANIPAT 2,259,324 867,766 -62%
BELGAUM 2,182,217 933,395 -57%
RATLAM 2,120,384 927,942 -56%
VALSAD 2,108,198 584,566 -72%
NAVSARI 2,098,476 663,078 -68%
ANAND 2,079,873 575,953 -72%
ROHTAK 2,034,865 680,398 -67%
AKOLA 1,900,169 892,090 -53%
BIKANER 1,857,389 550,682 -70%
MATHURA 1,829,913 266,988 -85%
NANDED 1,804,323 831,491 -54%
MYSORE 1,798,005 585,510 -67%
MANGALORE 1,793,051 663,688 -63%
JHANSI 1,782,090 757,245 -58%
ZIRAKPUR 1,731,778 553,091 -68%
GULBARGA 1,652,391 677,128 -59%
CHANDRAPUR 1,617,968 615,741 -62%
SAHARANPUR 1,583,840 553,108 -65%
SONEPAT 1,536,475 495,638 -68%
REWARI 1,532,162 743,319 -51%
VARANASI 1,521,664 607,534 -60%
HARDWAR 1,495,247 584,636 -61%
PALANPUR 1,486,687 547,602 -63%
BARDOLI 1,465,678 714,833 -51%
MALEGAON 1,417,959 559,706 -61%
BHIWADI 1,381,784 420,030 -70%
BHATINDA 1,332,855 272,250 -80%
BARAMATI 1,319,700 478,939 -64%
DHANBAD 1,305,209 801,157 -39%
NANDURBAR 1,289,268 589,091 -54%
SIKAR 1,273,813 588,852 -54%
HALDWANI 1,259,148 571,640 -55%
MUZAFFARNAGAR 1,227,380 431,840 -65%
PATIALA 1,226,230 480,955 -61%
BOKARO 1,225,853 552,827 -55%
PANCHKULA 1,204,921 416,428 -65%
MUZAFFARPUR 1,154,981 790,081 -32%
PATAN 1,151,496 438,927 -62%
ICHALKARANJI 1,137,395 507,200 -55%
AHMEDNAGAR 1,130,587 766,710 -32%
VISAKHAPATNAM 1,126,532 318,676 -72%
NEEMUCH 1,108,685 422,299 -62%
PATHANKOT 1,078,597 283,241 -74%
ADIPUR 1,063,204 264,217 -75%
KARNAL 1,041,189 388,595 -63%
CUTTACK 1,024,303 339,868 -67%
HAJIPUR 1,021,232 748,208 -27%
KALOL 981,741 363,724 -63%
BAHADURGARH 965,023 277,436 -71%
VAPI 944,128 232,193 -75%
ROORKEE 918,035 313,172 -66%
DHULE 900,893 315,387 -65%
BIJNORE 894,900 312,734 -65%
SOLAPUR 890,025 387,163 -56%
CHHINDWARA 889,778 460,359 -48%
NATHDWARA 851,142 645,481 -24%
KURUKSHETRA 843,575 291,863 -65%
HISSAR 837,357 439,140 -48%
COIMBATORE 833,729 175,789 -79%
YAMUNA NAGAR 820,583 206,989 -75%
BANSWARA 797,377 381,319 -52%
AMBALA 793,992 244,458 -69%
VIJAYAWADA 788,766 155,946 -80%
KHANDWA 762,371 327,133 -57%
DARJEELING 754,435 359,508 -52%
KUNDLI 738,756 177,481 -76%
SRI GANGANAGAR 704,614 139,087 -80%
SATNA 699,209 198,905 -72%
SEHORE 692,477 603,193 -13%
SITAPUR 669,866 225,431 -66%
KOCHI 668,449 269,602 -60%
RAIGARH 604,937 209,495 -65%
KHANNA 589,130 127,276 -78%
KISHANGARH 571,934 56,474 -90%
KASHIPUR 562,701 225,490 -60%
JORHAT 524,357 185,678 -65%
REWA 494,551 128,994 -74%
DAVANGERE 488,569 148,505 -70%
BALAGHAT 463,557 275,504 -41%
MANDSAUR 438,450 198,092 -55%
NAGDA 436,881 135,424 -69%
ABOHAR 384,694 66,370 -83%
RUDRAPUR 362,967 102,966 -72%
PHALTAN 352,536 120,756 -66%
SHIMLA 345,519 140,491 -59%
MUSSOORIE 338,292 126,989 -62%
HOSHIARPUR 335,316 114,996 -66%
WARDHA 292,781 112,030 -62%
DURG 280,698 126,610 -55%
SULTANPUR 262,655 132,810 -49%
WARANGAL 258,905 63,381 -76%
RAMNAGAR 255,221 64,437 -75%
UDGIR 247,581 55,797 -77%
KARIMNAGAR 234,111 43,977 -81%
KURNOOL 232,217 51,077 -78%
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM 226,826 30,021 -87%
SELU 218,904 53,250 -76%
GUNTUR 208,678 49,147 -76%
MADURAI 202,997 39,644 -80%
MUKTSAR 190,836 43,099 -77%
LONAVALA 190,462 70,192 -63%
BEED 160,565 73,245 -54%
DHURI 150,994 28,276 -81%
ALMORA 135,649 50,862 -63%
PONDICHERRY 127,749 62,439 -51%
TANDA 103,770 13,899 -87%
ONGOLE 63,587 9,104 -86%
NAWANSHAHR 47,394 15,869 -67%

14 Responses to “JayShah Box Office Column – Housefull Week 2”

  1. Based on numbers, you can deduce following:
    1. BOI and Komal numbers were on higher side in week1. Otherwise both of them should have been more than 50+ based on % fall.
    2. Even War number is more which is causing marginally higher week1 for HF4 in your case.

    week2/week1 of following –

    FilmInformation – 48.42/ 134.25 = 0.3607
    BOI – 48.07/ 135.86 = 0.3538
    BH – 47.08/129.35 = 0.3639

    Based on week1 cinema count Ahemdabad in week1 was not completely reported. If cinema count is less in week 1 compared to subsequent weeks then there are unreported centers. I guess you need make linear extrapolation of subsequent week so that you get correct fall.

    Like

    • How do we take care for 9 days of week 1 for War?

      Like

      • It is based on reported centers (2 day and 7 day have reported collection of 60% of total); For subsequent week you compare with same movie.

        Like

    • Ahmedabad I am not sure as it’s dubious. Could be an error, maybe part of week 1 is reported in week 2. I’ll see cinema count for week 3.

      This is purely on data presented. Rest I agree on.

      At moment I’m using data at face value so HF4 is reaping the benefits or discredit until it’s judgement time on which is bad or good data. I did reduce Ahmedabad down to flat cinemas yesterday – still got 48Cr.

      Like

  2. Thanks Jay. Your estimates are matching with Taran’s BH numbers. BH has 190 cr after 3 weeks. Looks like it will be another 190-200 cr film for Akshay after 2.0 and MM.

    Like

  3. Munna is it possible to shrink the tables to fit web page? I can’t see whole post.

    Like

  4. If we take <200 figure of BH for HF4, in my books the film would not even be a Semi Hit. A reported Average fare.

    Like

  5. Great work, Jay

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.