JayShah Box Office Column – Dabangg 3 Week 2 Estimate
Assumptions
- Using Film Information data
- Assumes trend in reported centres is correlated with unreported centres (fair assumption considering huge # of centres reported)
- The collections of estimated movie (A) are = Screen Ratio * CollectionRatio * reported total of comparative movie’s collections (B)
- Collection Ratio = Total reported collections of estimated movie (A) / Total reported collections of comparative movie on like for like reported centres (B)
- Screen Ratio = Total Screens (Film A) / Total Screens (Film B)
I estimate Dabangg 3’s week 1 collections to be around 113-115 CR. This is the lowest number considering BOI usually excludes non hindi collections. Hence I would draw the conclusion that Dabangg 3 has been over reported.
Opening week for Dabangg 3 is best described as very sluggish and a disappointing opening, even taking into account protests. It’s the weakest opening for the franchise despite a big gap of 7 years since Dabangg 2. Protests can account for a loss of business but the trend in daily numbers suggests even without protests the total lifetime was destined for a weak total.
Week 2
Dabangg 3 fell by 85% to record collections of 16-17 CR in week 2 for a running total of 129-132 Cr. The movie has flopped. Lifetime collections will struggle to hit 140 Cr. My number is closest to BOI’s total of 132 Cr. No week 2 estimates for Sumit and Rohit.
January 3, 2020 at 6:44 PM
So you have 113-115 cr including dubbed versions?
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January 3, 2020 at 6:49 PM
I would assume excluding as it’s not clear if FI includes or excludes.
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January 3, 2020 at 7:10 PM
This makes me wonder how Komal estimates his unreported centers total. Doesnt seem like he does any analysis on the reported centers.
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January 3, 2020 at 7:30 PM
Anyways, looks like BOI also over-reported Dabangg 3.
Thanks for the column, Jay!
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January 3, 2020 at 8:42 PM
Made image align to strip width and image clickable.
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January 4, 2020 at 12:19 AM
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January 4, 2020 at 1:04 AM
Sane verdicts from Komal as usual.
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January 4, 2020 at 7:40 AM
This is the first time I’ve seen Komal use the “Blockbuster” verdict in his annual ratings. Seems a better choice than “Movie Marvel of the Year” or “Box Office Wonder” verdicts that he came up for Ghajini/3I and Bahubali 2 ;).
H4 being Commission Earner is no surprise given that he claimed it needed 180-200Cr just for break even. Kesari being only a Overflow is unexpected though. As is the verdict for Total Dhamaal.
Gully Boy is pretty much the first ever clean Hit for Excel. Ayushmaan just about misses out on 3 clean Hits in a year with Article 15 being a Semi Hit. Is Badla AB’s first solo FI Hit since Aaj Ka Arjun?
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January 4, 2020 at 8:08 AM
DDLJ was Blockbuster.
https://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2010/06/02/1995-boxoffice-classification-as-per-filminformation/
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January 4, 2020 at 8:35 AM
Again, this deconstructs the myth that Akele Hum Akele Tum was a flop. It was a recovery film.
Does that site have Fi classifications for every year of the nineties?
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January 4, 2020 at 5:38 PM
No..they recently started and this link is in flashback section.
I do have some scans; Probably I will make permanent post with all the scans or verdicts.
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January 4, 2020 at 6:45 PM
Such a post would be great. Thanks munna.
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January 4, 2020 at 11:06 PM
Here is 2017 scan (Secret Superstar was a Hit by Komal):
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQtDhZuy7c11X3ueRtl_UjEOuNPYvabhzYlHixacUpAkCDDJnXd0A&s
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January 7, 2020 at 9:16 PM
@Munna – Do you have FI classification scans for 2005, 2006 and 2007?
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January 7, 2020 at 11:19 PM
I have 2007.
CDI, OSO -> SH
Welcome, Partner, TZP – Hit
Any particular film?
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January 7, 2020 at 11:28 PM
I am mainly interested in Aamir’s films. Any idea what Komal’s verdict was on Mangal Pandey? Was it Coverage or flop?
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January 4, 2020 at 1:33 AM
@Jay – Do you plan to follow through Dabangg 3 box-office for Week 2?
Week 2 numbers:
1. BollywoodHungama – 141.74 cr
2. Film Information – 142.7 cr
3. Boxofficeindia – 133.75 cr (Only Hindi)
4. Addatoday – 147.65 cr (Producer total)
Roughly 20 cr week 2 from all sources.
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January 4, 2020 at 5:24 AM
Yesterday Dabangg 3 collected just 0.5 cr. So week 3 is going to be 3-4 cr and that will be all.
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January 6, 2020 at 1:56 AM
Only 2.5 cr third weekend for Dabangg 3.
Btw, Boi has now revised Dabangg 3 week 1 number to below 113 cr:
https://boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=5786
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January 9, 2020 at 5:03 PM
My week 2 est for D3 is 16-17Cr and 2 week total of 129-132Cr with lifetime headed for less than 140Cr.
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January 9, 2020 at 5:12 PM
Absolutely a flop. Basically 9 years on from Dabangg, screens and price inflation plus at least 20% boost from GST/entertainment tax, Dabangg 3 = Dabangg lifetime. Nothing but a flop. Actually a disaster story if just talking vs expectations.
For Good Newzz I will use it as a base model for multiplex centric movies. It’s not sensible to compare it to HF4 or Dabangg 3. First week is similar across most sources so nothing looks odd except my model’s estimate – not going to do a CDI slice off on Good Newzz.
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January 9, 2020 at 5:24 PM
Dabangg 1st week was 80Cr, lifetime 140Cr
Dabangg 3 1st week is 115Cr, lifetime will be less than 140Cr.
It’s not rocket science to anything but a huge flop and at least 100Cr below expectations.
Others IMO are over reporting except BOI to some extent. They do only report Hindi language though.
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January 10, 2020 at 2:41 AM
Dabangg 3 box office proves that Salman over-reports his underperformers by a margin of 15-20 cr. Producer number for Dabangg 3 is around 150 cr. In real terms, it probably has done around 135 cr as Jay’s analysis shows. Similarly, Bharat is unlikely to have done much beyond 190-195 cr, Race 3 was in 145-150 cr range and Tubelight may not even have done 100 cr.
We have seen SRK resorting to such over-reporting PR during his downward curve. Now Salman is doing the same.
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January 10, 2020 at 8:45 AM
@Munna – Do you have FI classifications of JJWS and HHRPK?
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January 10, 2020 at 12:43 PM
No 92 and 93 scans with me.
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January 10, 2020 at 11:14 PM
Some over here (hopefully it is correct):
https://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2010/06/02/boxoffice-lions-of-90s-based-on-nahtas-verdicts/
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January 10, 2020 at 11:35 PM
Vinay Shah Khatri = Naveen?
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January 11, 2020 at 12:47 AM
Thanks munna.
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