JayShah Box Office Column – Dabangg 3 Week 2 Estimate

Assumptions

• Using Film Information data
• Assumes trend in reported centres is correlated with unreported centres (fair assumption considering huge # of centres reported)
• The collections of estimated movie (A) are = Screen Ratio * CollectionRatio * reported total of comparative movie’s collections (B)
• Collection Ratio = Total reported collections of estimated movie (A) / Total reported collections of comparative movie on like for like reported centres (B)
• Screen Ratio = Total Screens (Film A) / Total Screens (Film B)

I estimate Dabangg 3’s week 1 collections to be around 113-115 CR. This is the lowest number considering BOI usually excludes non hindi collections. Hence I would draw the conclusion that Dabangg 3 has been over reported.

Opening week for Dabangg 3 is best described as very sluggish and a disappointing opening, even taking into account protests. It’s the weakest opening for the franchise despite a big gap of 7 years since Dabangg 2. Protests can account for a loss of business but the trend in daily numbers suggests even without protests the total lifetime was destined for a weak total.

Week 2

Dabangg 3 fell by 85% to record collections of 16-17 CR in week 2 for a running total of 129-132 Cr. The movie has flopped. Lifetime collections will struggle to hit 140 Cr. My number is closest to BOI’s total of 132 Cr. No week 2 estimates for Sumit and Rohit.