JayShah Box Office Column – Dabangg 3 Week 2 Estimate

Assumptions

  • Using Film Information data
  • Assumes trend in reported centres is correlated with unreported centres (fair assumption considering huge # of centres reported)
  • The collections of estimated movie (A) are = Screen Ratio * CollectionRatio * reported total of comparative movie’s collections (B)
  • Collection Ratio = Total reported collections of estimated movie (A) / Total reported collections of comparative movie on like for like reported centres (B)
  • Screen Ratio = Total Screens (Film A) / Total Screens (Film B)

I estimate Dabangg 3’s week 1 collections to be around 113-115 CR. This is the lowest number considering BOI usually excludes non hindi collections. Hence I would draw the conclusion that Dabangg 3 has been over reported.

Opening week for Dabangg 3 is best described as very sluggish and a disappointing opening, even taking into account protests. It’s the weakest opening for the franchise despite a big gap of 7 years since Dabangg 2. Protests can account for a loss of business but the trend in daily numbers suggests even without protests the total lifetime was destined for a weak total.

Week 2

Dabangg 3 fell by 85% to record collections of 16-17 CR in week 2 for a running total of 129-132 Cr. The movie has flopped. Lifetime collections will struggle to hit 140 Cr. My number is closest to BOI’s total of 132 Cr. No week 2 estimates for Sumit and Rohit.

 

28 Responses to “JayShah Box Office Column – Dabangg 3 Week 2 Estimate”

  1. So you have 113-115 cr including dubbed versions?

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  2. Made image align to strip width and image clickable.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. @Jay – Do you plan to follow through Dabangg 3 box-office for Week 2?

    Week 2 numbers:
    1. BollywoodHungama – 141.74 cr
    2. Film Information – 142.7 cr
    3. Boxofficeindia – 133.75 cr (Only Hindi)
    4. Addatoday – 147.65 cr (Producer total)

    Roughly 20 cr week 2 from all sources.

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  4. Only 2.5 cr third weekend for Dabangg 3.

    Btw, Boi has now revised Dabangg 3 week 1 number to below 113 cr:
    https://boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=5786

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  5. My week 2 est for D3 is 16-17Cr and 2 week total of 129-132Cr with lifetime headed for less than 140Cr.

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    • Absolutely a flop. Basically 9 years on from Dabangg, screens and price inflation plus at least 20% boost from GST/entertainment tax, Dabangg 3 = Dabangg lifetime. Nothing but a flop. Actually a disaster story if just talking vs expectations.

      For Good Newzz I will use it as a base model for multiplex centric movies. It’s not sensible to compare it to HF4 or Dabangg 3. First week is similar across most sources so nothing looks odd except my model’s estimate – not going to do a CDI slice off on Good Newzz.

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      • Dabangg 1st week was 80Cr, lifetime 140Cr
        Dabangg 3 1st week is 115Cr, lifetime will be less than 140Cr.
        It’s not rocket science to anything but a huge flop and at least 100Cr below expectations.

        Others IMO are over reporting except BOI to some extent. They do only report Hindi language though.

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  6. Dabangg 3 box office proves that Salman over-reports his underperformers by a margin of 15-20 cr. Producer number for Dabangg 3 is around 150 cr. In real terms, it probably has done around 135 cr as Jay’s analysis shows. Similarly, Bharat is unlikely to have done much beyond 190-195 cr, Race 3 was in 145-150 cr range and Tubelight may not even have done 100 cr.

    We have seen SRK resorting to such over-reporting PR during his downward curve. Now Salman is doing the same.

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  7. @Munna – Do you have FI classifications of JJWS and HHRPK?

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