Abzee’s Oscar Predix for the year in film 2022 (Updated)

The nominations for the 95^th Academy Awards will be announced in exactly 2 weeks’ time. After the slapgate that was the Will Smith-Chris Rock embarrassment of last year, the Covid affected restricted ceremony of the year prior to it, the host-less events from the couple years before that, and the shadow of the #MeToo and #OscarsSoWhite movements that loomed over the two ceremonies previous to these… the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences would like the Oscars this year to be a return to normalcy and one that would be remembered only for the films rather than any scandal or drama. Having host Jimmy Kimmel back to anchor the evening is a step in that direction.

At a time when global film industries are in a state of flux, audiences’ viewing habits are shifting, and theatrical outings are becoming more and more about just tentpole releases… perhaps this will be the massiest Oscars in years. The Oscars have always battled low ratings owing to charges of snubbing popular films in favour of snobbish prestige fare. Think The Hurt Locker winning over Avatar, or Anthony Hopkins in The Father over Chadwick Boseman in Black Panther… there are several examples.

Summer blockbusters and superhero films, genres that have kept the film industries and theatres still relevant, have always received a reluctant appraisal from the Academy in technical categories like Visual Effects and Sound. The 95^th Academy Awards could be different.

The past couple of years, some believe, has hastened the end of cinema-going as a habit… and while it may be a button pressed far too soon in panic mode (a la the VHS and Home Video panic decades ago), it is definitely a time when the value of films like Avatar: The Way Of Water, RRR and Top Gun: Maverick is much more highly regarded than it would otherwise be. This could be a year when the Oscars will embrace popular cinema and give it the due that it has never sought but would be happy to have. An acknowledgement that what drives the masses and assures asses in cinemas is what keeps cinema alive as well.

Here then, are my predictions for the 95^th Academy Awards. As always, a disclaimer- these predictions are just that and no more. Tracking and tabulating the developments in the Oscar season that begins mid-September with film festival showings, then onto Guild Awards and finally, Critics’ bodies handing out their honours; these predictions are arrived at based on traction and buzz. These are in no way a commentary on the merit of these films.

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Best Picture

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER 20^th Century Studios

BABYLON Paramount Pictures

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Searchlight Pictures

ELVIS Warner Bros.

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE A24

THE FABELMANS Universal Pictures

GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY Netflix

TÁR Focus Features

TOP GUN: MAVERICK Paramount Pictures

WOMEN TALKING MGM/United Artists Releasing

Potential Spoiler- THE WOMAN KING Sony Pictures

Long Shots- RRR Variance Films, SHE SAID Universal Pictures, TRIANGLE OF SADNESS Neon

Surprise Sneak-in- AFTERSUN A24

No Guts, No Glory- GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Netflix

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Best Director

James Cameron AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER

Todd Field TÁR

Martin McDonagh THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Steven Spielberg THE FABELMANS

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Dark Horse- Sarah Polley WOMEN TALKING

Long Shot- Baz Luhrmann ELVIS

Surprise Sneak-ins- Damien Chazelle BABYLON, SS Rajamouli RRR

No Guts, No Glory- Joseph Kosinski TOP GUN: MAVERICK, Park Chan-Wook DECISION TO LEAVE

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Best Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler ELVIS

Tom Cruise TOP GUN: MAVERICK

Colin Farrell THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Brendan Fraser THE WHALE

Bill Nighy LIVING

Dark Horse- Paul Mescal AFTERSUN

Long Shots- Hugh Jackman THE SON, Jeremy Pope THE INSPECTION

Surprise Sneak-in- Diego Calva BABYLON

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Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett TÁR

Viola Davis THE WOMAN KING

Danielle Deadwyler TILL

Michelle Williams THE FABELMANS

Michelle Yeoh EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Potential Spoiler- Margot Robbie BABYLON

Long Shot- Olivia Colman EMPIRE OF LIGHT

Surprise Sneak-in- Jennifer Lawrence CAUSEWAY

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Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Paul Dano THE FABELMANS

Brendan Gleeson THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Judd Hirsch THE FABELMANS

Barry Keoghan THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Ke Huy Quan EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Long Shots- Brad Pitt BABYLON, Ben Whishaw WOMEN TALKING, Brian Tyree Henry CAUSEWAY

Surprise Sneak-in- Eddie Redmayne THE GOOD NURSE

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Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER

Jessie Buckley WOMEN TALKING

Kerry Condon THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Stephanie Hsu EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Jamie Lee Curtis EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Potential Spoiler- Janelle Monáe GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY

Dark Horse- Dolly DeLeon TRIANGLE OF SADNESS

Long Shots- Claire Foy WOMEN TALKING, Carey Mulligan SHE SAID

No Guts, No Glory- Hong Chau THE WHALE

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Best Original Screenplay

AFTERSUN Charlotte Wells

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Martin McDonagh

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

THE FABELMANS Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg

TÁR Todd Field

Dark Horse- TRIANGLE OF SADNESS Ruben Östlund

Long Shot- BABYLON Damien Chazelle

No Guts, No Glory- ELVIS Sam Bromell, Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann and Craig Pearce, THE MENU Seth Reiss and Will Tracy

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Best Adapted Screenplay

GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY Rian Johnson, based on characters written by him

LIVING Kazuo Ishiguro, based on the film Ikiru by Shinobu Hashimoto, Akira Kurosawa and Hideo Oguni

SHE SAID Rebecca Lenkiewicz, based on the book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey, and the New York Times investigation by Kantor, Twohey and Rebecca Corbett

THE WHALE Samuel D. Hunter, based on his play

WOMEN TALKING Sarah Polley, based on the novel by Miriam Toews

Long Shot- TOP GUN: MAVERICK Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie and Eric Warren Singer, based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.

Surprise Sneak-in- WHITE NOISE Noah Baumbach, based on the novel by Don DeLillo

No Guts, No Glory- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell, based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque, GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Gris Grimley, Patrick Hale, Matthew Robbins and Guillermo Del Toro, based on the characters and novel by Carlo Collodi

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Best International Film

Im Westen Nichts Neues ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Germany

ARGENTINA, 1985 Argentina

CLOSE Belgium

Heojil Gyeolsim DECISION TO LEAVE South Korea

SAINT OMER France

Potential Spoiler- IO EO Poland

Dark Horse- Bardo, Falsa Crónica De Unas Cuantas Verdades BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS Mexico

Long Shots- CORSAGE Austria, Ankabut-E Moqaddas HOLY SPIDER Denmark

No Guts, No Glory- JOYLAND Pakistan

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Best Documentary Feature

ALL THAT BREATHES Shaunak Sen

ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED Laura Poitras

FIRE OF LOVE Sara Dosa

NAVALNY Daniel Roher

THE TERRITORY Alex Pritz

Dark Horse- DESCENDANT Margaret Brown

Long Shots- BAD AXE David Siev, MOONAGE DAYDREAM Brett Morgen, RETROGRADE Matthew Heineman

No Guts, No Glory- GOOD NIGHT OPPY Ryan White, RIOTSVILLE USA Sierra Pettengill

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Best Animated Film

GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Guillermo Del Toro, Netflix

MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON Dean Fleischer-Camp, A24

PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH Joel Crawford, DreamWorks Animation

TURNING RED Domee Shi, Pixar

WENDELL & WILD Henry Selick, Netflix

Long Shot- THE BAD GUYS Pierre Perifel, Universal Pictures

Surprise Sneak-ins- APOLLO 10½: A SPACE AGE CHILDHOOD Richard Linklater, Netflix, THE SEA BEAST Chris Williams, Netflix, STRANGE WORLD Don Hall, Walt Disney Pictures

No Guts, No Glory- LITTLE NICHOLAS – HAPPY AS CAN BE Amandine Fredon and Benjamin Massoubre, Buffalo 8, MY FATHER’S DRAGON Nora Twomey, Netflix

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Best Production Design

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Dylan Cole and Ben Procter

BABYLON Florencia Martin

BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Hannah Beachler

ELVIS Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy

THE FABELMANS Rick Carter

No Guts, No Glory- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Jason Isvarday

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Best Editing

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua and Stephen E. Rivkin

ELVIS Jonathan Redmond and Matt Villa

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Paul Rogers

THE FABELMANS Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn

TOP GUN: MAVERICK Eddie Hamilton

Dark Horse- BABYLON Tom Cross

Long Shots- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Mikkel EG Nielsen, TÁR Monika Willi

No Guts, No Glory- NOPE Nicholas Monsour

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Best Cinematography

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Russell Carpenter

BABYLON Linus Sandgren

EMPIRE OF LIGHT Roger Deakins

THE FABELMANS Janusz Kaminski

TOP GUN: MAVERICK Claudio Miranda

Potential Spoiler- TÁR Florian Hoffmeister

Long Shots- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT James Friend, THE BATMAN Greig Fraser, ELVIS Mandy Walker

Groundswell Upset- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Ben Davis

Surprise Sneak-in- BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS Darius Khondji

No Guts, No Glory- BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Autumn Durald Arkapaw, NOPE Hoyte Van Hoytema

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Best Original Score

BABYLON Justin Hurwitz

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Carter Burwell

THE FABELMANS John Williams

GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Allexandre Desplat

WOMEN TALKING Hildur Guõnadõttir

Long Shots- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Simon Franglen, THE WOMAN KING Terence Blanchard

Surprise Sneak-in- BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Ludwig Göransson

No Guts, No Glory- DEVOTION Chanda Dancy, SHE SAID Nicholas Britell

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Best Original Song

“Carolina” WHERE THE CRAWDADS SING Taylor Swift

“Ciao Papa” GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz and Guillermo Del Toro

“Hold My Hand” TOP GUN: MAVERICK Lady Gaga and Bloodpop

“Lift Me Up” BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Tems

“Naatu Naatu” RRR Kala Bhairava, MM Keeravani and Rahul Sipligunj

Potential Spoiler- “Applause” TELL IT LIKE A WOMAN Diane Warren

Long Shot- “This Is A Life” EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE David Byrne, Ryan Lott and Mitski

Groundswell Upset- “Stand Up” TILL Jazmine Sullivan and D’Mile

Surprise Sneak-ins- “New Body Rhumba” WHITE NOISE LCD Soundsystem, “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER The Weeknd

No Guts, No Glory- “Til You’re Home” A MAN CALLED OTTO Rita Wilson

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Best Costume Design

BABYLON Mary Zophres

BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Ruth E. Carter

ELVIS Catherine Martin

THE FABELMANS Mark Bridges

THE WOMAN KING Gersha Phillips

Long Shots- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Shirley Kurata, LIVING Sandy Powell, MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS Jenny Beavan

Surprise Sneak-ins- CORSAGE Monika Buttinger, GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY Jenny Eagen

No Guts, No Glory- AMSTERDAM JR Hawbaker and Albert Wolsky, EMPIRE OF LIGHT Alexandra Byrne

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Best Makeup & Hair

BABYLON Heba Thorisdottir and Jaime Leigh McIntosh

THE BATMAN Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir

BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Camille Friend and Joel Harlow

ELVIS Mark Coulier and Shane Thomas

THE WHALE Judy Chin, Adrien Morot and Anne Marie Bradley

Long Shots- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Heike Merker, BLONDE Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh

Surprise Sneak-ins- AMSTERDAM Nana Fischer and Joel Harlow, CRIMES OF THE FUTURE Alexandra Anger and Monica Pavez, EMANCIPATION Andrea Bowman and Ken Diaz

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Best Sound Design

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil and Markus Stemler

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Chris Boyes, Mike Hedges, Julian Howarth, Tony Johnson, Gary Summers and Gwen Whittle

BABYLON Ai-Ling Lee, Steven Morrow, Andy Nelson and Mildred Iatrou Morgan

ELVIS Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson and Wayne Pashley

TOP GUN: MAVERICK Chris Bourdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor and Mark Weingarten

Dark Horse- THE BATMAN William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and Stuart Wilson

Long Shots- BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Steve Boeddeker, Benjamin A. Burtt and Brandon Proctor, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Ian Chase, Alexandra Fehrman, Brent Kiser, Stephen Nelson and Andrew Twite

Surprise Sneak-ins- GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO James Bowman, Dan Gamache, Tavish Grade, Frank A. Montaño, Chris Richardson, Jamison Rabbe, Carlos Sotolongo, Jon Taylor, Andrew Vernon and Chris Whiteside, MOONAGE DAYDREAM Louise Burton, Amy Felton, Samir Foco, David Giammarco, Nina Hartstone, Elliott Koretz, Paul Massey, James Shirley, John Warhurst and Jens Rosenlund Petersen

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Best Visual Effects

AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Richard Baneham, David Barrett, Joe Letteri and Eric Saindon

THE BATMAN Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon and Dominic Tuohy

BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick and Hanzhi Tang

DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS Theo Bialek, Chris Corbould, Janek Sirrs and Erik Winquist

TOP GUN: MAVERICK Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Ryan Tudhope

Potential Spoiler- NOPE Scott R. Fisher, Jeremy Robert, Guillaume Rocheron and Sreejith Venugopalan

Long Shot- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Muller and Frank Petzold

Surprise Sneak-in- THIRTEEN LIVES Jason Billington, Bruce Bright and Brian Cox

No Guts, No Glory- JURASSIC WORLD DOMINION Paul Corbould, Neal Scanlan, David Vickery and Alex Wuttke

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Thank you for reading. We’ll meet again on the 24^th of January after the official announcement of the nominees is made. Let’s see how accurate these predictions are, then.

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