JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – What’s Your Raashee? Opens To Weak Response; Wanted Emerges Hit
New Releases
What’s Your Raashee?
Ashutosh Gowariker’s return to direction after the critical and commercial of Jodha Akbar turned out to be a disappointment. What’s Your Raashee? [WYR] starring Harman Baweja and Priyanka Chopra offered a glimmer of hope at the box office after a decent start but once the weekend was over it was clear from audience and critical reaction that the romantic comedy was struggling.
With competition heavy in the multiplexes after the release of Wake Up Sid, What’s Your Raashee? will most likely emerge a flop.
Week 1 WYR vs Week 1 Billu
Mumbai -358% means Billu is 358% MORE than WYR in Week 1
Mumbai -358%
Pune -69%
Goa -47%
Nasik -92%
Himmatnagar -440%
Guwahati -30%
Gandhinagar -24%
Rajkot -80%
Bharuch -72%
Baroda -49%
Kota -78%
Nagpur -99%
Raipur -64%
Hyderabad -27%
Chennai 27%
Bangalore -11%
Vijayawada -3%
Kolkatta -6%
Burdwan -60%
Lucknow -16%
Faridabad -589%
The cumulative centre total in 21 centres for WYR = 0.96Cr (ignored 2 centres)
The cumulative centre total in 21 centres for Billu = 1.29Cr (ignored 2 centres)
This means that WYR is 74% of Billu’s total (0.96/1.29 = 74%)
Using Billu’s Week 1 total of 18.0Cr, WYR’s Week 1 = 74% * (18.0) = 13.4Cr
A similar exercise with Dil Bole Hadippa! and Dilli 6 yields 12.1Cr & 11.8Cr respectively
What’s Your Raashee? 1 Week Total = 12.0-14.0Cr(Week 1) = 12.0-14.0Cr
Verdict – Disappointing Returns
Considering Gowariker’s pedigree, the films critical performance is more a surprise than the commercial performance. At the box office WYR stands little hope now and will settle up at around 16.0-18.0Cr at the end of its run … a clear flop.
Past Releases
Wanted
Wanted continued its excellent run at the box office into its second week. After a fantastic week one, the film could have been forgiven if it slid in the second week but the trend is rock steady with a drop of around 48% across India. This drop has given the film second week collections of around 16.5-17.0Cr taking the two week total to an excellent 47.5-50.0Cr.
Wanted has emerged as a hit already and if the film continues to remain steady in the coming weeks the grade will be higher. Total collections of 65Cr are possible and considering the film has proportionately higher business coming from single screens and smaller centres, this gross would put the film as the biggest hit of the year by a considerable margin if achieved.
Dil Bole Hadippa!
The Rani Mukerjee and Shahid Kapoor starrer Dil Bole Hadippa! had an expected torrid second week. The Yashrajfilms entertainer managed to collect only 4.0-4.5Cr after a huge drop of 75% across India. With total collections of only 20.0-22.5Cr – Dil Bole Hadippa! is a flop.
January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)
February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)
March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)
May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)
June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 42.5 – 44.4Cr (Hit)
July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 43.8 – 45.9Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 7.0 – 7.6Cr (Flop)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Jashnn : 1.8 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Luck : 21.5 – 22.8Cr (Flop)
Love Aaj Kal : 63.6 – 66.0Cr (Hit)
August 2009
Agyaat : 5.1 – 5.4Cr (Flop)
Teree Sang : 1.7 – 1.9Cr (Flop)
Life Partner : 21.6 – 23.8Cr (Above Average)
Kaminey : 42.9 – 44.7Cr (Above Average)
Shadow : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Sikander : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Daddy Cool : 3.6 – 3.9Cr (Flop)
Kissan : 1.2 – 1.4Cr (Flop)
September 2009
Fox : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Aagey Se Right : 2.9 – 3.1Cr (Flop)
Three : 0.7 – 0.8Cr (Flop)
Vada Raha : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Baabarr : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Wanted : 47.5 – 50.0Cr (Hit)
Dil Bole Hadippa! : 20.0 – 22.5Cr (Flop)
What’s Your Raashee? : 12.0 – 14.0Cr (Disappointing Opening)
SATYAMSHOT 
October 3, 2009 at 10:31 AM
The Wanted collections were practically impossible to calculate when comparing to Wanted 1st week collections because either
a) Second week was complete and first week was not or
b) First week was complete and second week was not
So to find centres which were apples to apples was difficult – a total of only 7 or 8 are there and they lead to variable results. Hence, I took the Wanted 2nd week collections which in general are reported well [not sure about the Bombay number, its pretty huge, maybe gross and not nett] and compared it to Raaz-TMC’s first week. This gave me around 16.5-17.5Cr including the Bombay number. That may change depending on what the Bombay number really is.
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October 3, 2009 at 10:35 AM
How can Wanted be declared a hit when the cost is 45-50 cr as reported? Is this some special accounting I have not heard about yet?
Me confused
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October 3, 2009 at 10:43 AM
Fantastic trending on Wanted! Frankly I didn’t expect this. This means it’s sold more tickets than many many multiplex blockbusters. Just huge news! If this film gets to 65 crores or so it will actually mean a lot more than that number. Ghajini is in a different stratosphere of course but this is the best any star could have done in this sort of vehicle (of course the irony here is that a star with less authenticity than Salman for this kind of film would actually have grossed less!).
thanks for the clarification on the peculiar problems Wanted presents. This is why one keeps turning to you. Sound methodology of course but sincerity as well.
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October 3, 2009 at 10:44 AM
http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/boxoffice_update/index.html
http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/top5/index.html
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October 3, 2009 at 10:44 AM
Wake Up Sid looks to be a certain hit based on the reviews and the very strong multiplex start (of course this is only a multiplex release with a lower print count.. CDI or TZP might be the best model to do the comparison on this one).
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October 3, 2009 at 10:45 AM
given Wake Up Sid’s opening one can only imagine what 3 Idiots will be like!
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October 3, 2009 at 11:08 AM
Oh, Tyler.
45-50 crores is the cost of what?
Again for the umpteenth time, the domestic BO should be judged against the distributor cost. If the producer is releasing the film himself it is a little murky but should be the budget minus all other revenue streams except domestic BO.
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October 3, 2009 at 11:13 AM
That was the reported production cost for Wanted. What other revenue source?s I thought the success is based on domestic BO only. All other revenue counts only to the bottomline of the producers.
The rules seem to keep changing per movie.
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October 3, 2009 at 11:22 AM
No, Tyler.
Again the system most have been following is comparing the distribution share against the distribution cost.
If the budget is 45 crores, and producers release the film themselves you have to subtract the music, DVD, video, overseas rights before comparing against domestic BO.
When calculating producers table profits you take hte actual production cost and compare it against the selling price and all other revenue streams.
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October 3, 2009 at 11:13 AM
Excellent trending by Wanted. It looks like it will end up as a superhit, which I didn’t expect when I saw this movie on its second day in an empty hall. This is definitely a movie that should be seen with the masses.
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October 3, 2009 at 11:33 AM
This film’s success has really been a thrill for me. I never quite believed even when last week’s big numbers came out that this would hold up in the multiplexes. But it has. Obviously it was never big in these but it has clearly maintained steadily at the mid to lower end in these (which is why the Bombay number for example is so impressive compared to week 1) and of course the smaller centers and more significantly single/double screens of major metros are performing magnificently. if this film does about 60-65 crores it’s really like a 90-100 crore multiplex film. Now this statement seems a bit fallacious inasmuch as no non-multiplex film could ever gross that much but in terms of the number of tickets sold it’s right up there and has already sold probably many many more tickets than LAK. So to have Ghajini and Wanted in one year is extraordinary. I have selected the right time to showcase all these single screen theaters on the blog! But this is really very good news even if Bollywood’s prestige stars are not likely to follow this lead anytime soon. Not that I’ve been a fan of the film having seen the Telugu original but I cheer its success.
One should think about this subject though. It’s been big in Hindi and Tamil and of course created history in Telugu. Perhaps it merits closer examination. But here’s where I rue the fact that Abhishek never tried to revive the Okkadu remake once the Santoshi version was shelved. This film was big in Telugu, big in the Tamil remake and this would actually be even bigger in Hindi than Wanted. Because with this subject the multiplexes would be on board on day one.
Unfortunately Abhishek too lacks the right kind of belief in this world, very ironically so given his lineage. And again he could attempt a more sophisticated Ghajini. he could do this Okkadu remake. He really has options here but not the commitment.
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October 6, 2009 at 9:20 AM
An Abhishek-Santoshi combo would be killer in a OKKADU remake!
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October 3, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Abhishek did the right thing by not attempting the Okkadu remake..Dont believe Abhshek has the wherewhittals to carry off a Okkadu like main lead….
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October 3, 2009 at 12:20 PM
I think you’re quite mistaken in this belief.. you’re certainly misreading the evidence..
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October 3, 2009 at 12:18 PM
Satyam,
I have been noticing your allergy to multiplxes and to so called multiplex movies…Now i wonder in a city like Bbhubaneswar(approx population 1.5 million and economically successful city) a movie like Wanted does tremandous business …But to my amazement even Ghajni,Rab ne and OSO does record breaking business in a place which have predominatly single screen theatres…Now whats this phenomenon..? How do you differentiate between a so called multiplex movie and single theatre movie in this place?
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October 3, 2009 at 12:39 PM
Ghajini was a universal film that did well everywhere but in any case this wasn’t a multiplex movie per se. Without Aamir this film wouldn’t have done more than Wanted which would be great but not historic. Because Aamir started out with the proposition that he wanted to make a masala film and hearken to a certain tradition. But he also knew that he had to bring the multiplexes over so he selected a subject that he knew could be sold to these audiences with him at the helm.
Major films get a certain opening everywhere. OSO had enough masala frills to it to attract a smaller center audience and RNBDJ also had a small town feel. SRK if anything has been moving in this direction in recent times. But one must be precise, RNBDJ isn’t record breaking anywhere. OSO was huge but again this attracted a universal audience in the initial run. Not like Ghajini though as the figures reveal.
A multiplex movie is something like Wake up Sid but also all the movies that yashraj/Johar have been making over the years. It is not that I have an allergy with respect to multiplexes, I quite detest them! Because these reveal a certain smug mindset on the part of those audiences, the very same complacency that the ‘new India’ or ‘India Shining’ model represents. This is premised on a certain wishing away of history and an absolute refusal to see those aspects of the Indian experience that cannot be fit into such self-congratulatory modes (represented in films by the absence of Indian sites for the longest time). Anything that cannot be assimilated to this way of thinking is deemed to be ‘backward’ or ‘regressive’. Hence caste politics in UP never bothers the multiplex audience in Bombay because the very presence of such signifies a lack of ‘progress’ for these audiences. In the meantime these very bourgeois audiences conveniently forget the violence of their own ways of life, their own religiosity and so forth. I use the term ‘bourgeois’ constantly. Not that this mindset wasn’t around before this but the multiplex economy empowers this segment greatly and hence makes their ideology the dominant one.
Much as in a parallel sense Yashraj cracked the multiplex formula with their love stories/family romances but then also introduced Punjab obsessively into the equation. E Punjab is actually a very minor region in the territory system, in Delhi this ethos has great appeal but otherwise the vast majority of the Hindi film audience has no special affinity with it. But the Punjabi fetish was possible because the films appealed to those audiences in other ways (and of course there was an important overseas component here.. the Pakistani audience which is mostly Punjabi).
The move in all these films is really a right wing one where in the name of ‘tradition’ cultural values are re-invented (this is the classic move of the right in every context from Europe to India.. define an imaginary past and then use all the violence possible in the present to make it consonant with the former) and defined as merely normal middle class mores. well why are the middle classes of the 60s or 70s so different from those in the 90s?! But partly there is also a wider reflection of the culture here, the newly empowered middle classes who want to have their cake and eat it too. So let’s go along with all the liberalization in all sorts of ways but then let’s also use this empowerment to enable family values defined in the most regressive ways. What was the last time anyone ever saw a truly liberated young woman in a Hindi film? It’s rare. There were far better gender models in older years when the cinema was otherwise more overtly sexist.
And this leads me to my final point. This cinema and these classes operate with stealth. These are truly ideological films in the Althusserian sense of the term where ideology is always something that is concealed. So my favorite DDLJ example again. The guy has enough family values to not want to run away with the girl but apparently not enough to have some compunction about cheating his hosts royally in every way.
I have gone over a number of points very schematically. I’ve of course said a lot more on this previously on many occasions. But I am not opposed to multiplex architecture! Nor am I simply a nostalgist for the single screen world (in the first instance that world was never mine for more than a few reasons). I am opposed to the politics of the former. In a place like Bhubaneshwar a prestigious single screen like Keshari will attract enough of an audience for any major release. One should also look at how the composition of the audience has been altered by the Bollywood system.
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October 3, 2009 at 1:34 PM
satyam,I appreciate your honesty.You admitted wanted is like 95-100 crores multiplex film.Yes it is a 100 crore film if we take into account the number of tickets sold and that it was watched normally in multiplexes..
There is not that much difference between ghajini and wanted.Wanted might end up with a dstributor share of 41-42 crores which is the second highest in history.That is until Blue comes.
Ghajini had a holiday weekend and the 8th day aslo a holiday.So its 8 day
first week made more money.
I hope the golden era of action films like deewar,sholay,amar akbar anthony,don,qurbani will be back in hindi film Industry.
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October 3, 2009 at 1:36 PM
As far as Abhishek is concerned he should do a big action film.I don’t think okkadu will work but any other film where there is scope for action.
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October 3, 2009 at 1:50 PM
I think it will always be hard to sell pure action to the multiplexes. Okkadu I think would not require tweaking at all because it has enough romance, situational comedy, a family segment and then the masala stuff as well. I would possibly just change the climax fight. Not sure but overall I think this would be fine. It’s like BnB would have done even better with some action thrown in.
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October 3, 2009 at 1:58 PM
I think Abhishek should do an action movie or two as well. I think he would do vastly well in a well written action movie.
I think we all may indeed get our wish because I do believe that the Deo movie, the Sippy movie, and the Abbas Mustan movie are action movies or movies that will have their good share of action, thrills, suspense, and stunts. Also I trecollect that Ravan will also have some action and stunts scenes for Abhishek.
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October 3, 2009 at 1:48 PM
tyler,wanted budget is 35 crores.Its not been sold completely.So it is a superhit film.Boney Kapoor will never spend 45 crores on any film.Rest asusred.
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October 3, 2009 at 1:49 PM
Not surprised about Dil Bole Hadippa! flopping as a movie. I don’t feel that this movie had ever excited or resonated with the public in India, etc. It also seems that the movie was not up to par based on the less than stellar reviews it got. But I also feel that the Indian public is just not ready to accept or patronise a heroine-based movie.
I’m also not surprised that What’s Your Rashee has flopped based on the scathing reviews for it along with the extremely long winded length of the movie. Hope Gowaiker has learned his lesson, hires a capable editor for his future movies, and goes back to his strong suit as a director. If his next Hindi movie has a vastly entertaining and well script then he should be on the correct track again considering he has gone on record and said the movie will be shorter than any of his previous ones.
I’m not too surprised by Wanted garnering good box office because of its subject and genre resonate with the movie going audience in India, etc.
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October 3, 2009 at 1:54 PM
Like Spencer, I’m utterly confused by how the trade pundits tag or classify certain movies as hits, flops, above average, and so on. Some movies are classified as flops if they don’t make their budget or distribution price back at box office. Some movies are classified as hits even though they have yet to make their budget and distribution prices back.
I read an article where a producer blasted the corporisation of BW and said it would not last long because of actors not knowing their real price and vastly over charging. And because there have been only 3 real hit movies of this year and the other movies have either flopped or lost loads of money for the production and distribution houses. The producer even said that UTV lost 9 crores off of huge hit Ghajini on stock market. So what is the truth, what is lies, what is hype, and what is just a bloody smokescreen?
It does seem that the trade pundits change the rules of how they classify movies based on their own preferences or biases. Seems vastly muddled and precarious in my view. I’d really like to know how trade pundits classify movies and how they come to their conclusions? Is it about the budget, distribution price, domestic earnings, overseas earnings, etc? What and how? I’d like to know how it works because I feel most of it is faulty with lots of biased reporting.
Here is the article(just pay attention to what the guy is saying about BW box office, etc):
http://bit.ly/ItEpX
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October 3, 2009 at 3:04 PM
As i have seen the previews and by a word of mouth by a friends about the film “WANTED”.I have decided to go and see the film to-night with the family…I hope its the moneys worth
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October 3, 2009 at 10:10 PM
I don’t think the trade analysts changed their definition of whether a film is a hit or whatever — it was always based on the distributor share in India. The only inconsistency between analysts is that some are more stringent than others — Komal Nahta, I believe, doesn’t call a film a hit unless it’s a hit in all territories of India.
It is the producers who, within the past 7 or 8 years, have started to obfuscate the issue by talking of grosses, worldwid grosses (which of course completely distort the picture, due to the differenced in currency exchanges), and “openings” rather than the life time collections of the film, and taking out ads in the papers to declare their films a “hit” or “superhit”, etc., after the first weekend, or even the first day.
Once I learned the definitions of these terms, I have found them to be quite consistent for all films. It is only confusing if one believes the hype generated by the producers, and later finds the final verdict of the film to be something different.
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October 3, 2009 at 11:14 PM
The trade is actually quite dishonest. Nahata for example might say one thing in his trade journal that ten people read and here he is mostly consistent but then he gives a very different impression in the popular media for the very same films. Taran’s the same. Some of the rest are even worse. They all make predictions about films and then make the film’s performance fit the bill. The media advances a certain picture but it is these trade voices who supply the legitimacy by offering quotes for various pieces. Not just this Nahata with BnB or RDB to take two examples didn’t think the films would do well and didn’t change his verdict for the longest time. the same ‘universal’ standards didn’t come into play for a KHNH! many SRK films were called hits in the media by Nahata but then in his own classification he had them as less, sometimes much less than this. However when it came to certain other stars the reverse would be true. So these guys are not beyond politics and really part and parcel of the problem.
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October 4, 2009 at 5:19 AM
But this is an entirely separate issue from “changing the definition” of hit, blockbuster, etc, which a couple of people above had stated. What you are saying here is that they all have an agenda. Fine. But, in order to propagate that agenda, they manipulate the box office figures to *fit their definitions* of hits, etc. They don’t change the definitions themselves, which is what I was pointing out.
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October 4, 2009 at 8:43 PM
I’m in complete agreement. It’s vastly obvious that the trade pundits in India cook the books based on biases for and against certain actors in Bollywood.
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October 3, 2009 at 11:15 PM
related piece here:
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October 3, 2009 at 10:43 PM
Funny Shahid story – LMAO
A** Shahid likes it
Shahid Kapoor looks rounded with some much needed help from butt bags
http://mumbaimirror.com/article/30/200910032009100302154564058b7e276/A-Shahid-likes-it.html
I read this in another paper last week. I guess this is what Vishal was referring to when he said Shahid would be a better actor if he focused less on his looks.
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October 4, 2009 at 7:47 AM
Yes, I read this too and I thought it was hilarious. I had never heard of bum bags prior to this. It’s a bit sad when an actor is conscious of what people (um gay men?) will think of his bottom. I mean, it’s only a bum.
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October 4, 2009 at 7:55 AM
Not only gay men. 🙂 This is one of the areas in which most Indian men are sadly lacking.
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October 4, 2009 at 3:53 AM
Good analysis Jay, Wanted is definite 50+ in two weeks (However I reached at 53, and i am stick for this). However agree, wanted collections are most difficult to reach at one precision level, mainly because of single screen contribution.
About Wake up sid, no doubt it opened well , but not as great as overreported by media, also release is not as limited as reported, 350 prints is all rubbish, my calculation reach at atleast 475 prints which is not huge but certainly more than reported.
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October 4, 2009 at 10:24 AM
interesting on wake Up Sid..
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October 5, 2009 at 1:34 AM
I am wondering on what basis media is trying to go Ho Halla over Wake up Sid.
First check my BO Report for WUS …
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/05/wake-up-sid-did-well-with-10-crore-do-knot-disturb-14-crore-over-weekend/
I am wondering how CDI first week was reportedly 20 Crore with mere 50% opening against 400 prints. and WUS will do only 15 crore with 80% opening against same no. of prints. That is what called media conspiracy.
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October 5, 2009 at 2:23 AM
so how much do you expect the film to put up in week 1?
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October 5, 2009 at 3:00 AM
If sustain well on weekdays, it would be 15 – 16 crore. But my concern is that print count is not as less as projected, this is conspiracy to project strong opening against lesser no of prints(which is not the case). 10 crore opening against 350 prints is excellent, but what if it is against 450+ prints ? and what if DP of movie is 35 crore worldwide ? If price can fail for dostana, than what would be in case of WUS ?
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October 4, 2009 at 3:54 AM
I have uploaded full comic version of Mr. India, check here .. http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/04/mr-india-full-movie-comic-book-version/
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October 4, 2009 at 10:23 AM
great stuff Yakuza.. thanks!
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October 5, 2009 at 1:34 AM
thanks !!
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October 4, 2009 at 6:59 PM
BoC:
Wake Up Sid, Do Knot Disturb open well at box office
Story By: MANISHA PRADHAN SINGH updated on: Oct 04, 2009
MUMBAI: New movie releases Wake Up Sid and Do Knot Disturb have done fairly well at the box office, which is good news with many films not doing business as expected.
While Wake Up Sid opened at around 80- 90%, Do Knot Disturb had a slightly slower opening as compared to Wake Up Sid at around 50 – 70% but picked up towards the noon and evening shows. However, according to sources the reports of Do Knot Disturb have not been that good.
Wake Up Sid proved to be a complete surprise as it not only opened well in the metros but smaller centers as well.
Speaking to Businessofcinema.com, PVR Cinemas programming head Prakhar Joshi said, “Wake Up Sid had a superb opening it opened at 90- 100%. It opened very well at the small centers like Indore and Aurangabad too, which was a pleasant surprise. The public response has been really good. As for Do Knot Disturb, Bombay was not really good, the occupancy in North India was better.”
However, Fun Cinemas chief operating officer Vishal Kapur said, “Wake Up Sid had good advance bookings but the feedback of the film was OK, the occupancy is expected to go up over the weekend. Do Knot Disturb was around 30% but is expected to go up over the weekend.”
“The opening of Do Knot Disturb was average at around 55% but picked up by evening as for Wake Up Sid it opened really well at around 70- 75%,” added Cinemax India senior vice president Devang Sampat.
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October 4, 2009 at 7:27 PM
WUS did okay in the US -estimate – $247,200
DKD did poorly in the US – estimate – $103,854
http://moviecitynews.com/columnists/klady/2009/091004.html
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October 5, 2009 at 2:54 AM
Satyam,
Thanks for your detailed response..
I will responsd to it after some deliberation…
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October 5, 2009 at 5:29 AM
yakuza,35 crores is too huge a price for worldwide theatrical rights.
I think 35 crores is total rights including satellite,dvd.
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October 5, 2009 at 9:24 AM
IBOS:
BO: Top Opening Weeks in Bombay
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Much has been said about the Salman Khan starrer Wanted’s supposed big opening week. But under inspection, while the film has done good business in the single screens of Hindi belt, its average performance in south and poor performance in the multiplex screens nationally meant the film was far from being near the top openers . While many remote single screen theaters’ reports are ambiguous and hard to verify independent of vested claims, representative figures from Bombay help put some easier perspective.
Top opners of Bombay with net collections for week 1: 1. Ghajini ( 11.2 crores/8day), 2. Gol Maal Returns (7.6 crores, 9 day), 3. Om Shanti Om (7.2 crores), 4. Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi (6.7 crores) 5. Dhoom 2 6. Love Aaj Kal 7. Kambakht Ishq 8. Dostana (2008) 9. Partner (2007) 10. Race 11. Welcome 12. Kabhi Alvida Naa Kehna 13. New York 14. Fashion 15. Heyy Baby 16. Jodhaa Akbar 17. Lage Raho Munnabhai 18. Jaane Tu Ya Jaane Na (5.1 crores) 19. Chak De India (5.1 crores) 20. Sarkar Raj (4.8 crores) 21. Wanted (4.7 crores).
It can be compared that while Aamir Khan starrer Ghajini and Wanted are both in same genre released only months apart, it is clear the difference in collections is more than 100%, with Ghajini having taken more than twice the opening collections of Wanted.
For a broader perspective, the following are top recordbreakers across Bombay post 1980 on year basis:
1980 – Shaan (Amitabh Bachchan, Shatrughan Sinha, Shashi Kapoor, Parveen Babi, Rakhee)
1982 – Khuddar (Amitabh Bachchan, Parveen Babi)
1983 – Coolie (Amitabh Bachchan, Rati Agnihotri)
1988 – Shahenshah (Amitabh Bachchan, Meenakshi Sheshadri)
1989 – Mujrim (Mithun Chakrobarty, Madhuri Dixit)
1991 – Hum (Amitabh Bachchan, Govinda, Rajnikanth)
1993 – Khalnayak (Sanjay Dutt, Madhuri Dixit)
1995 – Trimurti (Shahrukh Khan, Anil Kapoor, Jackie Shroff)
1999 – Hum Saath Saath Hain (Salman Khan, Ajay Devgan, Aishwarya Rai)
2002 – Kaante (Amitabh Bachchan, Sanjay Dutt, Sunil Shetty)
2003 – Kal Ho Na Ho (Shahrukh Khan, Saif Ali Khan, Preity Zinta)
2004 – Veer Zaara (Shahrukh Khan, Preity Zinta, Amitabh Bachchan, Hema Malini)
2005 – Mangal Pandey (Aamir Khan, Amisha Patel, Rani Mukherji)
2006 – Dhoom 2 (Hrithik Roshan, Abhishek Bachchan, Uday Chopra, Aishwarya Rai)
2007 – Om Shanti Om (Shahrukh Khan, Deepika Padukone)
2008 – Ghajini (Aamir Khan, Asin)
It should be noted that post-2005, multiple films broke opening record in Bombay in the same year. For example Bunty & Babli (Abhishek Bachchan, Rani Mukherji, Amitabh Bachchan, Aishwarya Rai) broke Veer Zaara’s record, Sarkar (Abhishek Bachchan, Amitabh Bachchan, Katrina Kaif) broke B&B to be a recordbreaker as well but Mangal Pandey was top recordbreaker in 2005, opening collectionwise. Same with Fanaa, Krrish and Dhoom 2 in 2006.
Incidentally, Salman Khan, outside of HSSH, has never been in a Bombay record breaker openingwise. His 2 blockbusters: Hum Aapke Hain Kaun and Maine Pyar Kiya were with the Barjatyas from 1989-1994 and released on very small number of prints before picking up big. Shahrukh Khan post-1995 has been in 4 opening recordbreakers. Aamir Khan in 2, Hrithik Roshan in 2. Amitabh Bachchan holds the record for all time maximum opening recordbreakers in Bombay. But he hasn’t had a recordbreaking opening post Sarkar I in 2005.
It will be interesting to see if any film in 2009 left, is able to break Ghajini’s 10 cr/7 day net record.
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October 5, 2009 at 9:25 AM
IBOS:
Box Office: Unlucky Rashee; Karan Johar’s clash with Govinda
Friday, October 02, 2009
Priyanka Chopra’s 12 attempts at playing women of various Rashees had a hard time collecting even 12 crores through the opening week. Given that such films depend heavily on word of mouth, and word of mouth was poor on account of length and vain climax, it didn’t work out for the film. As What’s Your Rashee has flopped. This is Priyanka Chopra’s 2nd flop with Hurman Baweja after Love Story 2050, and completes Baweja’s hatrick of flops since the debut in the same. The actor dubbed as next superstar in some trade sections has found out that it takes more than dancing in order to strike at the box office.
The opening weekend of WYR however wasn’t too bad. Its collections were best in the multiplexes of Mumbai and Gujrat. South multiplexes opened well also, some even recording 80%+ collections. But elsewhere turnout was low and the overall volumes were too low to register an impactful total, as reflected in under-par week 1 collections. But as mentioned above, the film’s reports weren’t strong so by the end of the week, even the multiplexes gave way. It will have a short stay in theaters from hereonin.
The director Ashutosh Gowarikar gets a drubbing as well with WYR. He will next try his luck with an Abhishek Bachchan starrer; the latter himself coming off an underwhelming Delhi 6 at the box office earlier in 2009.
This week sees a clash of Karan Johar’s production without Shah Rukh Khan: Wake Up Sid starring Ranbikr Kapoor and Konkona Sen directed by newcomer Ayan Mukherji; vs the 90s dynamo team of David Dhawan-Govinda-Vashu Bhagnani as director-actor-producer, which in the past created a batch of ‘No. 1’ hits in the 1990s. This appears to be another case of mass vs class and it will be interesting to see who wins out the week and over long term. Advance booking for both are slow right now though Class A stations were betting more on ‘Wake Up’ in the earlygoing. But that was before Karan Johar ended up vacillating about Mumbai vs Bombay phraseology in public earlier Friday, creating confusion and taking some focus away from the movie content for the public.
Meanwhile, Salman Khan starrer Wanted has done ok in its 2nd week. The drop has been about 55-60% per print. In some cases more, in some cases, less. So not spectacular, not bad. The pattern is same as last week. Good collections in single screens, under-par collections in multiplexes. Though the film’s relative performance in single screens bodes well for future southern remakes (Wanted is remake of Mahesh Babu’s Telugu blockbuster Pokiri) provided the costs can be kept low to medium-budget. Otherwise, 50 crores are hard to recover with poor performance from overseas and multiplexes and good (but not recordbreaking) collections from single screens. As for Salman Khan’s standing in the industry now, the actor has two more releases coming up shortly beginning Diwali, the openings for which should tell the tale on whether the star is truly back in the mainstream public reckoning or whether it’s just section of media hype. In the two upcoming movies, Salman Khan’s standing will be tested first against Akshay Kumar in the adventure film Blue which is coming up against Mr. and Mrs. Khanna (costarring Kareena Kapoor), and then against Amitabh Bachchan in Aladin, which is a modern action-adventure takeoff on the Arabian Nights. That is coming up against London dreams which has the Salman Khan-Ajay Devgan combo on Oct 30.
In between, there is also All the Best, Ajay Devgan’s own production directed by Rohit Shetty, which is releasing on Oct 16. Last year, the Devgan-Shetty combo had gotten a 40 cr opening in Golmaal Returns.
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October 5, 2009 at 9:26 AM
IBOS:
BO Update: Wake Up Sid heading a Hit, Do Knot Disturb flops
Saturday, October 03, 2009
A newcomer director, Ayan Mukherji, has made it at the box office with the Ranbir Kapoor-Konkona Sen-Sharma starrer Wake Up Sid this Friday. The film opened well all over, including ‘Bombay’, though the volume of screenings were concentrated towards high grossing theaters. However though the film opened well Friday, by Sunday, its collections are set to be even higher as the film improved by 30% between Friday to Sunday bookings. If this continues, this will be Ranbir Kapoor’s most successful film at the box office. In fact the film has shades of Vipul Shah’s Waqt starring Amitabh Bachchan-Akshay Kumar, Lakshya starring Hrithik Roshan and Dil Chahta Hai starring Aamir Khan, and it could end up faring better than all of them. The overseas opening was somewhat soft but should also pick up.
Meanwhile the expected ‘massy’ Do Knot Disturb had only an ok opening in single screens and also some multiplexes to the tune of about 50%. Some multiplexes had even allocated more screenings for DND than Wake Up, but the Govinda-Riteish Deshmukh starrer couldn’t hold past the evening and the collections have come crashing down already. The film is set to be another box office flop. Overseas opening for this one was weak as expected, and will fall even further.
Next week sees the release of Sanjay Gupta’s Acid Factory. After which is the Diwali week, usually the highest grossing week of the year.
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October 5, 2009 at 9:27 AM
IBOS have opening week of Wanted at 29.7 crores.
They have Kaminey at 55 crores which seems unbelievably high to me.
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October 5, 2009 at 10:14 AM
October 4, 2009, 1:33 pm
Weekend Box Office: ‘Zombieland’ Is No. 1; ‘Meatballs’ Trumps 3-D ‘Toy Story’
By Brooks Barnes
Glen Wilson/Columbia Pictures Jesse Eisenberg, left, and Woody Harrelson in “Zombieland.”
Sony’s marketing machine marches on: “Zombieland” opened No. 1 at the weekend box office, giving the studio its sixth first-place debut of the year. The horror-comedy hybrid sold an estimated $25 million in tickets at North American theaters, according to tracking services. The entry to watch, however, was Disney’s experiment in using 3-D to repackage the Pixar classics “Toy Story” and “Toy Story 2.” The films, re-rendered in 3-D and released as a double feature, sold an estimated $12.5 million, placed third — behind a three-week-old animated entry from Sony, “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs.” (That movie sold another $16.7 million for a cumulative total of $82.4 million.)
So Disney did a successful job priming the market for “Toy Story 3,” set for release in June, but so far failed to prove any points about the goldmine potential of re-releasing old hits in 3-D. The Ricky Gervais comedy “The Invention of Lying” (Warner Brothers) was fourth with about $7.4 million, while “Surrogates” (Disney) limped into fifth place with $7.3 million ($26.4 million total). The only other wide release, “Whip It,” fared poorly in sixth place. The Fox Searchlight comedy, backed by a months-long marketing campaign and featuring the talents of Drew Barrymore and Ellen Page, sold about $4.9 million.
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October 5, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Amitabh tapestry is a real treat. So many pics that I like, hard to figure out aa favorite. Love the one from Naseeb.
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October 5, 2009 at 11:59 AM
You have now created a problem for yourself, Satyam as I am not going to let you take it down! Ever.
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October 5, 2009 at 2:51 PM
Would be happy to keep it forever!
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October 5, 2009 at 3:21 PM
At some point I’ll keep switching images from the same films.
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October 5, 2009 at 12:34 PM
Hmm, I noticed that Ranbir’s opening weekend in the US is declining:
Saawariya (SLB production) – $542,192 – 85 theatres ($6,378 average)
BAH (YRF production) – $322,431 – 71 theatres ($4,541 average)
WUS (Dharma production) – $247, 200 – 60 theatres ($4,120 – average)
It could be related to the recession but I find it interesting that even working with the big production companies, he is not doing better in the US.
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October 5, 2009 at 1:14 PM
Ibos should stop this propaganda against wanted.Its a propaganda site anyway.If wanted is a regular film with 70% collections from multiplexes and 30% from single screens it would have done 100 crores.
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October 5, 2009 at 1:36 PM
I second the Amitabh tapestry suggestion that it never be taken down.
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October 5, 2009 at 2:56 PM
rediff on the openings of the two films:
http://movies.rediff.com/report/2009/oct/05/weekend-box-office.htm
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October 5, 2009 at 3:00 PM
here’s BOI:
Wake Up Sid grossed 10.50 crore nett over its first weekend. The collections are a very good as it was a limited release mainly at multiplexes. The collections were best on Friday (holiday) and Sunday while there was a drop in collections on Saturday. The drop was bigger outside the metroes which remained fairly steady.
The film look sets to have a good run at multiplexes of big cities and on the strength of metro multiplex business the film will emerge a winner. Business is very strong in Mumbai, Pune, Delhi/NCR, Kolkata and Bangalore.
The first week business should come in at around the 16-17 crore nett mark.
Do Knot Disturb grossed a fair 11 crore nett over its first weekend. The best business was in places like UP and Rajasthan. Mumbai city and Bangalore saw business on the lower side.
The film showed a noticeable drop in collections on Saturday especially in the multiplexes which could mean the film could suffer drops over the weekdays. Sunday was decent but the film did its best business on Friday.
The first week should see business in the 15-17 crore nett region which is just about par for the film.
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October 5, 2009 at 3:04 PM
The fallacious logic about these ‘limited’ releases and I’ve said it in past years also is that the multiplexes drive the numbers, usually the overwhelming share, on most films. Unless it’s a Wanted or a Ghajini or certain kinds of comedies the non-multiplex market is either very small or negligible. There’s a reason why WUS has a limited release! It wouldn’t do anything outside these major metros anyway. That’s the limit of such a film. The opening looks to be good enough even if the media is not universally as gung-ho on the box office here including BOI who are otherwise kind on the film. But in any case much like TZP and CDI the trending will be all important here. The reviews are very good so there’s no reason it shouldn’t trend well. But just how strongly remains to be seen. This does seem to be essentially a top 5-7 metros deal. I mean counting those that can really produce the numbers.
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October 5, 2009 at 3:51 PM
I think the opening is good overall by most accounts but there is a bit of overdrive. Expecting a TZP or CDI type trending is unlikely at the least anyway. I think this will fair more like a Rock On, maybe end up 30-35Cr overall for a solid performance. Considering Diwali is next Friday its only really got a two week dash before Blue releases.
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October 5, 2009 at 4:33 PM
Fair comments, Satyam and Jay.
Rediff is off the mark as usual.
A license should be needed to post BO commentary on line.
I think it will be as Jay said around 30-32 crores total.
Not shabby, overall.
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October 6, 2009 at 8:48 AM
http://bollybusiness.wordpress.com/2009/10/06/wus-1-60-crore-do-knot-distrub-1-75-crore-on-monday/
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October 6, 2009 at 10:53 AM
BoC:
Wake Up Sid box office equals Do Knot Disturb’s on less prints
MUMBAI: Wake Up Sid and Do Knot Disturb have done a net business of approximately Rs 100 – 110 million (Rs 10 – 11 crores) each in its opening weekend. However pertinent to note here is that while Do Knot Disturb was released in approximately 800 theaters in India, Wake Up Sid had a comparatively smaller print count and was released across 420 theatres in India, which is almost half of the former.
While Do Knot Disturb did good business in places like UP and Rajasthan, Wake Up Sid was stronger in multiplexes across metro cities like Mumbai and Bangalore.
Wake Up Sid, produced by Dharma Productions and distributed worldwide by UTV Motion Pictures, did a worldwide gross of Rs 215 million (Rs 21.5 crore) of which the India gross stood at Rs 170 million (Rs 17 crore). The movie was released in the overseas in 200 screens and did good business in the US, UK, Gulf and Australia. In UK, the movie collected $165,934, while in the US, the collections stand at $355,532. In the Gulf, the per print average of $9,575.
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October 6, 2009 at 10:54 AM
this is misleading though because the multiplexes do not have less prints and DND has assuredly sold more tickets to get to the same gross.
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October 6, 2009 at 11:46 AM
Agree, we have to discount the multiplex effect on the collections but it still is far fewer prints for WUS.
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October 6, 2009 at 11:44 AM
WUS is making some Hrithik fans insecure. It is a strange world we live in where a relative new comer’s success causes heart ache forthose insecure fans. Guess, the ‘limp dick syndrome’ is not eunuch ( read ‘unique’) to the SRK fans.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:13 PM
Interestingly most Hrithik fans never had these issues in the past but if you have representation from those who frequent Hrithik forums (which by definition attract the greatest partisans… you and I are for example not members of Bachchan groups) then the picture gets a bit distorted. With SRK’s fans that kind of attitude is much more the norm, at least in all my years of online experience.
Of course the problem is that a star ultimately has to do it on his terms and the failure of others can only help at the margins. At the same time the fans often realize the extent of the overall narrative. and to this extent they try to play political games. The SRK fan doesn’t mind Ranbir or even plugs him because the latter is seen as a starson who can be used against Abhishek in a narrative and meanwhile the overall romantic hero image confirms the SRK genre far more than not. Meanwhile the Hrithik fans also like him for some of the same reasons but correctly intuit an overlap between Hrithik and Ranbir in certain other ways. The SRK fans again could never stand Aamir because he represented the greatest challenge to the SRK system. They too were correct and Aamir let’s has won the ‘final judgment’ here and only looks to add to it. So there are all these psychological and political games. I will say that Abhishek often unites most other partisans, if not in anger then at least in terms of anxiety. because again everyone quite rightly senses the very special place he holds because of his inheritance but also for some years now because of hs own accomplishments and the extent to which his preferred course of action, even if questionable in a box office sense at the moment, is on the right side of history. A quick example. For all those who hyped Gowariker to death for JA and who couldn’t stop loving all the awards given to this film had a bit of a problem explaining how he ended up with Abhishek for his next major project!
So again the partisanship always contains a kernel of truth. But in more practical terms the answer is never really about wishing for the failure of another star but catching one’s own star for misjudgments. Abhishek’s problem isn’t that Akshay’s had a lot of hits but that he himself hasn’t. Hrithik’s problem isn’t that Abhishek is doing different a lot but that he doesn’t have enough commitment to the same. SRK’s problem isn’t Aamir as much as the fact that he wasn’t willing to compromise on his own Yashraj gold. But of course these things are oppositional too in some ways and it’s not as if every star can just take whatever course they wish. There are certain commercial and fan pressures. Again Aamir or Abhishek are the only one who actually walked away from the box office in significant ways. This is not true for anyone else really.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:30 PM
I think always when one is trumped or is afraid of being trumped and these extends to fans as well, the problem is always within oneself. But , there are also fans that are bothered by succeses of other stars presumably appealing to the same demographics, who erroneously regard others success as potentially damaging to their stars. Hrithik is hardly in any danger from Ranbir ( at least yet ) but his fans dont see it that way.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:41 PM
Hrithik is enough of a bona fide top bracket star to not be in danger from anyone. Frankly the greatest danger to him is his own film volume or lack thereof!
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October 6, 2009 at 11:58 AM
I am actually disappointed with the performance of “WUS”. BOI is predicting a final gross of 26-28cr. The overseas performance is also pretty weak. The film is very well made and easily the best so far this year. I was expecting at least 40 cr in India. If a well made film cannot collect enough at the boxoffice, that means the lead star is not completely liked/accepted by the audience. I hope thats not the case and wish APKGK and Rocket singh fare better.
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October 6, 2009 at 12:53 PM
still early days Prasad.. let’s see what the final numbers are. But a star’s significance is of course a factor even with good WOM. So when TZP and CDI had good WOM most people wanted to see these films. Ranbir is too early in his career for everyone to be convinced. For example I would watch this film with Aamir but I have no plans of doing so with WUS. Of course I wouldn’t watch it with SRK either (didn’t see CDI in the theater) but then SRK isn’t in his career where he once was. In the 90s I used to watch every half major SRK starrer.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:03 PM
if WUS starts off at 15-17 crores and ends up at 35 crores I think that’s pretty good. It’s a small film with multiplex appeal that too mostly in major metros. So contextualized it’s not at all a bad performance. Could bigger stars get more here? Sure. But I think one shouldn’t buy into the media narratives here. What has Ranbir done so far to convince one he’s a major box office force? Zilch. For a star to be one instantly there has to be a Hrithik kind of instantly sensational beginning. Otherwise you have to work your way up. Ranbir’s doing that. But yeah I’ve always had the sense that pound for pound Imran won the heartthrob sweepstakes in the initial going.
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October 6, 2009 at 4:34 PM
The biggest stars also trend the best in the critical films aswell. Hence, agree, Ranbir is not quite there to pull off a TZP or CDI.
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October 6, 2009 at 12:59 PM
By the way I’ve harped on this in the past quite a but note how for any sort of different film Abhishek’s Guru benchmark with 50 crores or so (final gross) has still not been bettered by any of his peers, pound for pound. Multiplex film or otherwise. One could make a case for TZP being the exception because it was a smaller film, a rather offbeat subject, and most importantly opened against Welcome (this wasn’t true for CDI). Tax exemptions are another matter. But barring this it’s all the same range. Kaminey in absolute terms grossed far less just recently. The Guru benchmark remains a special one (RDB did a little better on the strength of enormous major metro performance) and moreso given that the film was a biopic and the lead star needed to convince the audience about his larger than life character. All of this is always easier said than done. Note how rarely this achievement can be replicated. All the arguments that I made once upon a time for Guru still stand from my perspective.
Much as D6 even with a total failure still grosses 35 crores or so which is not a world removed from Kaminey’s final gross. Tashan and CCTC did worse than JBJ. So there are many ways of measuring a star’s box office. This is not to be an apologist for what is clearly Abhishek’s patchy record based on his choices (which too will continue) but to argue that there is context here of the kind which is not available for most other stars who follow safer routes.
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October 6, 2009 at 5:08 PM
I agree mostly, but there is to me a lack of ruthlessness in Abhishek. Or he is lucking out on near misses. Sometimes I think he is moving faster than the audiences can keep up. His films choices are not structured to maximise his appeal i.e. just when he has a Guru or Dostana he follows it up with a flop. In terms of box office, its one step forward and one step back. I think all the biggest stars who have ever been had an element of sustained consistency and continuous success for certain period of time – its surely a qualifying requirement. With Abhishek his best period was probably 05-07 where had a run of BnB, Sarkar, Dus, Bluffmaster, KANK, UJ, D2 and Guru. After that its a patchy record.
His risks are not strategically risky – they are just very risky. With Aamir one feels there is a thought, an element of strategy, an element of even sadistic calculation – something that Abhishek choices [or even his offscreen persona of being laid back] don’t give off.
The ruthless element comes in when he had some 5-6 guest appearances in 05-08; Salaam Nameste, LRM, SOAL, RGV Ki Aag, LCMD, Mission Istanbul etc. Could easily avoid most of these “favours”. Plus the biggest “favour” he can avoid is Goldie Behl. Its all good supporting your friend – a nice thought, but the ruthless streak is apparant in many people who make it to the top. That focus and drive and even some selfishness.
He could definitely try to structure his career more around what fans like to see him. This is not to stay ring-fenced, but the best experimentors should be the most established stars who buy audiences in with their appeal. It’s as if Abhishek wants to be Irfan Khan and Aamir Khan at the same time without laying the foundations down on either side of the spectrum – kind of stuck in that middle ground attempting both where it would make more sense to establish the credentials as a major star and then take the big risks OR concentrate fully on acting only and accept the top stardom may happen or may not.
Kind of a critisism here, but I think Shahid has kind of shown the way a little in that he has established himself as a miniature SRK type romantic hero, in these popcorn chick flicks or college type stories and managed to at least get an audience in to see him in Kaminey. But then DBH happens too! So much as with Abhishek that consistency of good choices is also missing in Shahid’s repertoire.
Ultimately I still think the industry is ruled by the likes of Aamir, SRK, Salman [to an extent he can strike like Wanted]., Hrithik and Akshay. Aamir, SRK and Hrithik retain a high level of continuity and consistency. Akshay is going through a rough patch but from 06-08 was a major box office draw. Salman is like a light switch. No one else IMO is really knocking on the door let alone stamping it down and running in! And I do think that door is open for the likes of Abhishek, Ranbir, Shahid, Saif, Imran to come in. There are enough producers and finances now for lots of competition. But no one is making the big move, with maybe a great box office moment to jump in.
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October 6, 2009 at 5:20 PM
To add the media “enthusiasm” around Ranbir is also extreme. They see ready to hand him the throne. This is an actor who is promising and has only one moderate success to his name. Its all a bit to early. Let history write itself instead of writing it!
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October 6, 2009 at 5:45 PM
Fantastic comment Jay and a very valid reading of Abhishek’s career, really very little to argue with here.
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October 6, 2009 at 8:14 PM
Excellent summation of the state of abhishek’s career at present. I must confess that, avid abhishek fan though I am, I find him hard to read, and am unsure what his plan is and where he wants to go (I stress, not where I think he can go but where he wants to go).
If I could saddle abhi with a criticism, it is that he didn’t do more of the “RUN” kind of film. Can’t really blame him, as hardly anyone was doing that sort of thing, and perhaps the risk didn’t seem worth it, but among all the risks he has been taking, I would have liked to see him develop that persona. It isn’t too late: ABCL needs to produce the Okkadu remake they were supposed to have done a long time ago as “Ranbeer”…
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October 6, 2009 at 9:53 PM
Excellent Summary here Jay…..!
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October 6, 2009 at 8:10 PM
Satyam: to the extent the thrust of your point is that in order to gauge star status, flops must be studied no less rigorously than hits, I couldn’t agree more.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:22 PM
You have to take into account the fact that Kaminey lost revenue from the swineflu scare. I believe that it would have made at least 5 crores more if not for the losses in the first week.That puts it in the same range of 48-50 crores as Guru.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:30 PM
I don’t buy that excuse since a lot of movies have been impacted by some outside force – movies have banned in some places, monsoons have occurred during a movie release, terror acts, etc. and still succeeded.
If people wanted to see Kaminey, then they would have gone after the initial scare and it would have sustained.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:47 PM
I would accept certain factors for films as long as these are not used selectively. Kaminey did lose out on a bit for sure. At the same time it did show more than expected drops in the initial going. Much like Dostana it too stabilized at the lower end. So whether it’s the theme for each film or the film-making style or whatever the film’s total performance did not quite match the reviews in each case. But again to look at films purely in terms of hard box office math is a mistake. Certain films always mean more than certain others irrespective of hit, flop or in between status.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:42 PM
Even if one were to accept that point swine flu is a bit different from the Mumbai attacks when the whole nation was more or less glued to their TV for some days. But let’s accept that point. 50 crores today is hardly the same as 50 crores in Jan ’07!
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October 6, 2009 at 8:15 PM
I am inclined to agree with Mandi here: many in the desi audience will simply resort to pirated VCDs once a few days pass. Thus, I think the problem Dostana and Kaminey faced was not “deferred” audience but “lost” (theatrical) audience…
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October 6, 2009 at 1:35 PM
Imran looks like a finished force satyam.BAH ran on Ranbir’s stardom.
And now WUS.How many debutants started like this?If Akshay doesn’t become NO1 anycase then Ranbir has the best chance to become NO1.
He has three films coming up.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:44 PM
Disagree Sunil.. BAH did half-decently. It grossed only as much as D6! So a Yashraj film grosses only as much as a failure with an offbeat theme like D6! Imran doesn’t have the right projects barring an exception here or there. I’ll agree there. But I wouldn’t count him out specially with that uncle of his!
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October 6, 2009 at 1:39 PM
Tyler whether you like it or not kaminey did 50 crores.Just like Dostana would have been a hit if not for mumbai attacks.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:45 PM
The one thing both films have in common is that irrespective of the gross the media universally calls each one a hit. With Dostana there were some naysayers early on but with time the film’s reception has transcended the gross. Strictly speaking neither film’s current gross makes it a hit without qualification. But the media narrative has won out as it often does these days.
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October 6, 2009 at 2:00 PM
Where are you getting 50 crores? BOI (42) and Bollywood Hungama show less than 50 crores.
Both gave it an average rating.
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October 6, 2009 at 1:59 PM
Budgets matter.BAh had 18 crores and D6 40 crores.Anycase let’s see what Ranbir does.Kaminey and dostana are seen by enough people to call them hits.Imran needs reinvention and better acting skills.I hope he comes with something substantial in future.
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October 6, 2009 at 3:27 PM
I find it hard to accept that the BAH budget was that low. Nonetheless it doesn’t argue against my point inasmuch as grosses reflect audience interest and involvement and no star who is not in the top bracket would ever have a 35-37 crore ‘flop’ (D6 or SR), and these are hardly Yashraj films! Much as Akshay even at his peak couldn’t get more out of CCTC or Tashan than Abhishek did out of JBJ. Again the reason I am getting into all these examples is (leaving aside the polemical reasons!) that the box office too has to be interpreted. So when there are often these shenanigans about Abhishek and there is on the other side evidence about his continuing to get the choicest projects it is this kind of box office deal that bridges the gap. No one does it just because someone’s a good actor! Sure this strategy hurts Abhishek in the trade because distributors don’t know what to expect of him. It also hurts him because the box office is often the ultimate metric in these matters. But people in the trade also know this — no other star in those very same films would have done better, this verifiably so. CCTC is not doing even as much as D6! Of course the box office deal is itself exaggerated a bit. It reveals the sense of expectation from him to a great degree but also media politics and so forth. If one used the Salman standard Abhishek last had a success in Nov ’08 with dostana, before this in Jan ’07 with Guru. SR was something in between. After D6 he’s not had a release. So going by Salman’s one hit once in two year rule with multiple flops at the same time he’s not done badly at all! Again I am making a precise point with each one of these claims. I don’t otherwise believe that he’s doing optimally in box office terms.
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October 6, 2009 at 2:06 PM
I do think Kaminey suffered because of the complete shutdown of theaters in Mumbai. Because it had tremendous pre-opening buzz which would have ensured a very strong opening in the Maharashtra circuit. When it eventually opened, some people kept away due to mixed reactions to the dark and complex theme. By then, the damage had been done.
As for WUS’s opening, I think some of it is because of the Karan Johar brand. Johar has his own set of loyal followers, especially overseas.
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October 6, 2009 at 2:20 PM
fair enough.. I just think the film wasn’t for everyone in a ‘narrative’ sense but it’s the classic example of the sort of film where perhaps WOM itself is less reliable. Why? Because many people would not want to admit that they hadn’t much cared for the film. There is a certain pressure at work with critically acclaimed films that also become trendy one sense or another.
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October 6, 2009 at 2:35 PM
I agree the audiences who are usually influenced by the critics reviews are the same who probably would not like to voice opinions contrary to the majority of the reviews, especially for a ‘highbrow’ film such as Kaminey. But there are vast sections of audiences who don’t care about film noir or have never heard of Tarantino and Richie…who would have no problem expressing their opinion.
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October 6, 2009 at 3:20 PM
that’s true except that the classes represented in the media and the multiplexes are not as likely to fall in that group..
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October 6, 2009 at 2:08 PM
BOI calls kaminey semi hit.Its 44 crores.5 crores lost.
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October 6, 2009 at 2:18 PM
IBOS gives it 55 crores which in my view is way too high.
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October 6, 2009 at 2:29 PM
I don’t know if UTV recovered any insurance from it? There was talk of the losses being covered by insurance.
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October 6, 2009 at 5:39 PM
Jay – that’s an astute note about Abhishek and the current “standings” as it were…
“It’s as if Abhishek wants to be Irfan Khan and Aamir Khan at the same time without laying the foundations down on either side of the spectrum – kind of stuck in that middle ground attempting both where it would make more sense to establish the credentials as a major star and then take the big risks OR concentrate fully on acting only and accept the top stardom may happen or may not.”
This is, for me, a perfect sum-up of Abhishek’s quandary, leaving aside the Bachchan history that also plays into his career and what it represents.
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October 6, 2009 at 5:46 PM
agreed, you’ve picked out the heart of Jay’s comment. Even otherwise it’s a wonderful summation on his part.
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October 6, 2009 at 6:44 PM
I happen to agree almost entirely with his summation with the probable exception of this particular comment.
Irfan Khan is a great performer but hardly what Abjishek aspires to be. He is actually charting his own course. Not even Aamir is his ideal. He is just indifferent to the BO angle. Somwhat suicidal but refreshing none the less. Surely, there is not one calculating bone in his body while Aamir hasnt one that is not. Irfan is not in the same stratosphere. But the rest of Jay’s analysis is spot on.
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October 6, 2009 at 6:54 PM
Respectfully, I think you’ve misread Jay if you think he suggested that Irfan is on the same level in terms of starry aspirations or ambition. Irfan knows his worth as an actor and sticks to the kind of intimate, more character-oriented roles that Abhishek (and Aamir) is fond of, albeit on an obviously bigger scale. That’s where the the comparison begins and where it ends.
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October 6, 2009 at 7:41 PM
I know what you are trying to say but the comparision just jars. Irfan is not going to get a Guru or a Yuva or a D6 or a UJ and Abhishek is not going to do a SM or whatever that horrible flick that Irfan did with Anil Kapoor was called.
On a separate note, I do agree he is settling for a ‘happy’ middle ground and I would say he is doing it pretty succesfully. The general public is not used to the path Abhishek is charting and hence have no yardstick other than the conventional one to judge his success or failure.
The fact that he gets meaty roles in those somewhat offbeat projects by rather succesful and talneted directors and still manages to remain relevant in commercial cinema, is my mind a success. If he continues in the present vein he will never be a contender for a prominet position on the BO ladder. But, as Satyam has repeatedly pointed out, he could continue doing what he does but still strike a little more balance by doing ‘safer; projects with a little more regularity.
Otherwise, I agree with Jay’s analysis while maintaining that whatever is happening is of Abhi’s own choosing. It is not that he is muddling thru. He just doesnt seem to be really that bothered about the whole success-failure thing. Obviously, a little risky but then if he cannot afford risks who can.
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October 6, 2009 at 7:57 PM
It’s probably less jarring to me because I happen to think Irfan is pretty much better as a pure actor than most of the active Hindi cinema actors today. I think Abhishek should frankly be pleased to draw comparisons with folks representing different sectors of modern Hindi cinema – from Irfan to Aamir.
It indeed is fine for him to straddle this never-before-seen kind of trajectory for a Hindi film hero. The problem, for me, is in the performances themselves. Abhishek has been feeling kind of listless in a lot of his roles (even in Dostana where he was solid, one felt the comedic energy of his previous similar outings – even KANK – was missing) and his last interesting outing as an actor, to my mind, was JBJ…
This is of course just my view of things….
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October 6, 2009 at 8:20 PM
One of the problems I have with abhishek is that when he does do something safe, it is utterly “multiplexie”: i.e. he is far more likely to do a Bourne Identity-type thriller or a “Dostana” than, e.g., a Wanted. It isn’t his less safe stuff that peeves me (e.g. Umraojaan, Delhi-6), it’s what he does when he goes mainstream…
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October 6, 2009 at 8:25 PM
Valid point,Q. But, cant wait to see Abhi in a Jason Bourne avatar. So many pressure on the poor guy. Balance commerical with prestige films, balance masala commercial versus multiplex commercial!
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October 6, 2009 at 9:04 PM
for once I am in agreement. for anyone else I’d resist the multiplex kind of deal but Abhishek needs it. LOL!
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October 6, 2009 at 8:49 PM
Rajen, your comment inflects the whole discussion a bit differently and here too I find the case very plausible. There are a few issues here. He’s one guy who’s genuinely using his capital to take genuine risks. You’re absolutely right that it’s hard to fit him into any of the existing models. For some of the reasons Jay stated as well. He would not have a problem doing exactly what he’s doing in Hollywood. I happen to think that even in Bollywood he would have far fewer problems in terms of the media narrative if he did not have the name Bachchan attached to him because so much of this really is in the ultimate sense an anti-Amitabh Bachchan narrative. At the same time I am hesitant to think of him as laid-back even if his offscreen persona suggests as much (and this is a problem otherwise inasmuch as it feeds the perception as well as the narrative) given his choices and the extent he is willing to go to for the right film whether it’s a Guru or a Raavan. I think that the laid-back way would be to just do the obvious films. To insist on doing the different as much as he does even when it clearly hasn’t yielded the right box office results upto now is to have great ambitions as an actor. Now he’s bet his own path to success this way. I don’t believe for a moment that he’d be satisfied at being less than an elite star but he clearly wants to frame a different way of doing things. I cannot know what goes on inside his head. When things don’t work out does he actually learn from his mistakes (one doesn’t see enough evidence of this) or does he feel he’s simply been unlucky? Because one of the problems is you cannot mistake old mistakes for newer ones. You just have to make less mistakes. Jay brought up the guest appearances and the stuff done with friends. That he doesn’t do anymore as far as I can tell. But has he thought long and hard about Paa for example and certain other projects? He’s talked about doing films based on the idea rather than script? Has he understood how and why this is a problem. Does he feel a sense of responsibility towards his fans? So on and so forth. Mistakes shouldn’t be repeated but these shouldn’t be exchanged for different ones either. But at least a connect issue here is the open hostility the media has towards the family and the complete unwillingness on their part to actively court this very same media. It’s not just about flops. Akshay gets away with a KI. Abhishek cannot get away with SR, to a certain extent they did but not too much. There are certain kinds of films that are neither hits nor flops but that can be spun either way depending on the media and the relationship the same has with the star in question. There is always that resistance to Abhishek so that unless he hits it clean out of the park there are negative assessments and with Guru we saw that even a perfect storm of critical opinion and box office success didn’t convince everyone to speak the truth! So the bar is just very high for him in every sense and it is here that he needs to get hard-nosed about this. Because his own narrative hasn’t failed and he keeps getting the projects he wants he perhaps believes somewhat fallaciously that the media cannot truly hurt him. It can and does because even as he gets those films he finds it increasingly hard to get good press about them (Dostana was of course a Johar operation in this sense!). So it’s all rather tangled. I confess there isn’t an easy answer. Playing hardball is certainly something that’s amply needed for both father and son.
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October 8, 2009 at 7:53 AM
You dislike Akshay too much satyam.Anycase,jokes apart you can’t use the usual ‘no one has bettered abhishek in the different’ excuse forever.
I hope Abhishek does what you expect.Tell me, is Raavan a different film or a commercial film?
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October 6, 2009 at 9:23 PM
On that horrible film….Irrfan was just brilliant there(film was CHOCOLATE, remake of THE USUAL SUSPECTS!
As for the whole Irrfan/Om/Nasser..I would rank Nasser as the better actor out of all 3….and Pankuj Kapur as all of their Baap :)!
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October 6, 2009 at 8:04 PM
nteresting, GF. I think Dostana was just fine. He played it the way it was written. D6 is the one I had a little problem with. Again, would lay the blame at Rakeysh’s door there.
But, yes neither was a stand out performance.
And, again Irfan is a terrific actor. But, again is never going to be a star. There have been quite a few of those over the years. But, to be truthful, he isnt even a Naseer or an Om Puri.
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October 6, 2009 at 8:14 PM
Well yeah, he’s not Naseer or Om. He’s been in the game for a fraction of the time they have…you might as well compare Abhishek with his father while you’re at it! But if you’re saying he’s not at their level when they were his age, I’ll just respectfully, completely, flat-out disagree…but no need to harp on about it. His work speaks for itself and I’d bet it all on him standing the test of time.
Again, I don’t disagree that Irfan’s never going to be a star. No question in my mind of that. It is however worth noting that along with all the evils of the multiplex age, one of the unquestionable goods is the idea that someone like Irfan can actually be floated as a kind of “hero”, albeit in a way Hindi cinema hasn’t seen. Essentially, what it meant to be a star traditionally in Hindi cinema is no longer what it means. Abhishek has benefited most from this changing dynamic…
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October 6, 2009 at 9:03 PM
Agree quite a bit with the second paragraph. Irrfan can never be a star in a lead hero of a commercial venture sense but he can and has established a niche brandname in the multiplex age.
On Naseer I think his greatest asset as an actor is his intensity. Which is to say he’s fine but not in the way most people think he is. Om Puri is better at straddling the commercial/’art’ cinema divide but don’t think he can match Naseer at his very best. The Smita Patil/Shabana Azmi dichotomy is somewhat similar too. The latter a better all rounder but the former has smoldering intensity (Smita and Naseer have another thing in common.. a great voice in each case).
Wouldn’t want to compare Irrfan with Naseer, with Om possibly. Don’t think it’s a question of time as much. Irrfan has had a reasonable number of years doing films where his caliber can be judged. Certainly Naseer and Om had enough on their resumes for the same period of time. This is true for even Abhishek and Bachchan. After a decade of Bachchan in the industry it was 1979 when Bachchan was absolute master of all he surveyed. But leaving aside the box office it is not unfair to compare performances like Zanjeer and Deewar with Yuva and Guru given that both actors had spent the same amount of ‘industry’ time in either instance.
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October 6, 2009 at 9:12 PM
Yes, with Abhishek and AB there’s certainly a comparable trajectory or perhaps comparisons are impossible to avoid given how Abhishek’s work “comments” on the previous Bachchan history.
But I’ll stand by the Irfan comparison. Naseer in his day worked with better filmmakers, in better films. Given what Irfan has had to work with during this past decade or so, I think he’s proven himself to be pretty darn gifted…If I were to judge based on the actual respective filmographies I’d say Naseer is better. But sometimes an actor’s gifts present themselves without being given an adequate platform…diamonds in the rough and all that.
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October 6, 2009 at 9:14 PM
I’ll concede these points. Certainly Naseer had more author backed stuff from the get go..
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October 6, 2009 at 9:21 PM
Could be a mash-up topic for coming week’s Poll’s….start pitting actor against actor :)!
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October 7, 2009 at 12:01 AM
Re: “It is however worth noting that along with all the evils of the multiplex age, one of the unquestionable goods is the idea that someone like Irfan can actually be floated as a kind of “hero”…”
One can perhaps link this to a certain 1970s history, i.e. the sort of “little” film that enabled Amol Palekar, Utpal Dutt, and even Sanjeev Kumar, to make their mark with films like Golmaal, Chupke Chupke, and Angoor (although, not a fan of the last-named). Today, after a couple of decades in the wilderness, the “small” film might have made a comeback of late, although typically in the guise of a “serious” film (somehow, it seems more likely that “WANTED”-style masala will make a comeback than that intelligent comedy will). But one thing where the 1970s* definitely scored is that the lead actors took themselves less seriously: An Amitabh was doing a film like Chupke Chupke at the same time as he was doing films that revolved around his larger-than-life persona; Dharmendra thought nothing of doing a Chupke Chupke, Dream Girl, Chacha Bhatija, Sholay and Dharam Veer in a 5-year period. Today, with almost all the major actors, every film they do has to be, just has to be, a Big Fucking Deal. It can (at its best) lead to more thoughtful film selection (as Aamir’s career this decade demonstrates), but it does drain some of the fun quotient away. In that sense, I derived great pleasure from seeing abhishek just show up in a “Laaga Chunari Mein Daagh” — that sort of “ordinary” role is rare today.
*[Note that my reference to the 1970s when it comes to the little film isn’t an attempt to divide Hindi cinema into an old-school versus new sort of thing. Because the 1970s’ plethora of small films was itself an exceptional situation — one didn’t see their like either BEFORE or AFTER this decade. But perhaps those with far greater familiarity with the 1950s and 1960s can add to this.]
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October 7, 2009 at 12:05 AM
“Today, with almost all the major actors, every film they do has to be, just has to be, a Big Fucking Deal.”
LOL!
Great comment.. and it greatly contextualizes the Abhishek path in some ways also..
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October 7, 2009 at 12:15 AM
Not a fan of ANGOOR? Kyun?
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October 7, 2009 at 12:15 AM
And LOL @ big fucking deal!
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October 7, 2009 at 12:18 AM
Because I really am not a fan of Deven Verma — i.e. can’t really take a lot of him in a film. and Sanjeev Kumar too was great in a cast with other actors, but can’t really hold my attention if the film is meant to revolve around him. Personally, I liked Deepti Naval the most here…
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October 6, 2009 at 8:52 PM
yeah I don’t rate Irrfan as highly as GF does though I’ve grown to like him a lot more than I did. Didn’t have a problem with Dostana either even if the media got a bit carried away with this performance. I also don’t see energy problems as such with his performances but I do understand where GF is coming from to an extent. This is why regular commercial fare is also needed for the star to break out a bit more. Otherwise there is a danger of growing too inward as an actor, a kind of Hamlet complex if you will (Abhishek is a great fan of the play), specially when it’s Abhishek who has some of those tendencies anyway.
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October 6, 2009 at 8:59 PM
A good comment like a good question invites interesting discussion. Cant hurt to throw some praise Jay’s way when he is sleeping ( or should be sleeping). And, it has been interesting to see this discussion of Abhishek’s career without the usual comparisions that come up.
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October 6, 2009 at 9:15 PM
I was thinking about precisely the same thing earlier. To quote Obama (!) one can disagree without being disagreeable! LOL! But jokes aside the comments have all been valuable in this context,.
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October 6, 2009 at 11:08 PM
http://www.bollywoodhungama.com/trade/top5/index.html
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October 8, 2009 at 6:28 AM
hello jay….my question to you is that is do knot disturb really not doing good at all?if so… then how come when i try to book ticket for it it always shows all tickets booked for a multiplex like DT-saket,delhi….are they fake….and if all this is correct dont u think govinda should try different brand of comedy..something like life partner which enjoyed reasonable success….thank you
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