JayShah Box Office Column – Dabangg 3 Week 2 Estimate

Assumptions

• Using Film Information data
• Assumes trend in reported centres is correlated with unreported centres (fair assumption considering huge # of centres reported)
• The collections of estimated movie (A) are = Screen Ratio * CollectionRatio * reported total of comparative movie’s collections (B)
• Collection Ratio = Total reported collections of estimated movie (A) / Total reported collections of comparative movie on like for like reported centres (B)
• Screen Ratio = Total Screens (Film A) / Total Screens (Film B)

I estimate Dabangg 3’s week 1 collections to be around 113-115 CR. This is the lowest number considering BOI usually excludes non hindi collections. Hence I would draw the conclusion that Dabangg 3 has been over reported.

Opening week for Dabangg 3 is best described as very sluggish and a disappointing opening, even taking into account protests. It’s the weakest opening for the franchise despite a big gap of 7 years since Dabangg 2. Protests can account for a loss of business but the trend in daily numbers suggests even without protests the total lifetime was destined for a weak total.

Week 2

Dabangg 3 fell by 85% to record collections of 16-17 CR in week 2 for a running total of 129-132 Cr. The movie has flopped. Lifetime collections will struggle to hit 140 Cr. My number is closest to BOI’s total of 132 Cr. No week 2 estimates for Sumit and Rohit.

 

Bollywood Actors and their cricketing counterparts

Bollywood stars and their cricketing counterparts

This is just my opinion
Other opinions are available
The comparisons are based on their box office performance, trajectory, longevity, iconism and influence on Bollywood and the collective Indian psyche

Dilip Kumar-Vijay Merchant
Amitabh Bachchan- SUNIL Gavaskar meets Sachin Tendulkar
SRK- Sourav Ganguly
Raj Kapoor- Kapil Dev
Dev Anand- G R VIshwanath
Dharmendra- D B Vengsarkar
Akshay/Jeetendra-Rahul Dravid
Aamir Khan-Anil Kumble meets Ajit Wadekar
Aayushmaan- Shikar Dhawan
Ranbir Kapoor- Rohit Sharma
Nasser/Irfan/Naseeruddin- VVS Laxman
Balraj Sahani-Vinoo Mankad
Rishi Kapoor- V Chandrashekhar
Rajendra Kumar- Bishen Singh Bedi
Feroze Khan-Saleem Durrani

Others’ lists welcome.

An Jo thoughts on BOMBSHELL

The greatest dis-service I think Jay Roach has done to BOMBSHELL is the narrative structure: It’s too fast-paced, and too fact-packaged within the limits of time the medium offers. Why does this feel like a lesser enterprise? For me at least, because, the entire premise of anybody oppressed, sexually or other-wise, is that time is the enemy, that painfully-long arc between the happening and the revelation. In a short 109 minutes, the film-makers try to explore all the humiliation, all the pain that the 3 main protagonists go through, bit-by-bit. Is that a fault of the chosen medium? Is that an inherent issue? It’s up for discussion – and quite ambiguous.

Movie and Series recommendations 2020

2019 thread

Oscar predix for the year in film 2019

With the 2020s all set to roll in a matter of only a few hours, honouring the films of 2019 will be our vestigial link to the decade gone by. A lot has happened over the last decade… this blog, and the wonderful world of movies that we all love and argue over, has offered us a safe space from all that is out there. Things must change, they always do… and a 2020 vision at least augurs well. But for a nostalgist, certain things, at least the good ones, must also be constant. My inconsistent annual Oscar predictions being something that I would like to keep doing. Here then, on the last day of 2019, are my Oscar predictions for the 92^nd Academy Awards. The actual nominations voting open on the 2^nd of January, 2020 and the nominees will be announced on the 13^th of the same month. The Oscars will be presented this time on the 9^th of February, 2020.

Best Picture

1917 Universal Pictures
THE IRISHMAN Netflix
MARRIAGE STORY Netflix
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD Sony Pictures Releasing
PARASITE CJ Entertainment and Neon

If the Academy nominates six films, then
JOJO RABBIT Fox Searchlight Pictures

If they nominate seven, then
JOKER Warner Bros. Pictures

With eight nominations,
FORD V FERRARI 20^th Century Fox

With nine,
LITTLE WOMEN Sony Pictures Releasing

And when ten,
THE FAREWELL A24

Potential Spoiler– THE TWO POPES Netflix
Dark Horse– BOMBSHELL Lionsgate
Long Shot– A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD Sony Pictures Releasing
Unanticipated Sneak-ins– KNIVES OUT Lionsgate, RICHARD JEWELL Warner Bros. Pictures

JayShah BoxOffice Column – Final Collections for Housefull 4

• Using Film Information data
• To arrive at current week collections I take previous week and compare with current week to arrive at a weekly % drop
• I then take my prior week estimate and multiply by the % drop
• Current week collections = Prior week * % drop (based on like for like centres) * % cinemas drop
• % cinemas drop is the reported # of cinemas from Film Information – it adds a parameter for size of release for the same film
• # of Cinemas shouldn’t be confused with screen size as the former is independent variable for a movie whereas latter is something for comparing with other movies

 

I re-adjusted Week 2 for HF4 down to 48Cr from 49Cr as Ahmedabad cinema count in Week 1 should be 31 cinemas and not 15 – so FI data was inconsistent here as Week 2/3 = 31 cinemas and Week 4 = 20 cinemas.

My final numbers for HF4 are 194Cr and this is in line with Bollywoodhungama. I did not see it too necessary to investigate other sources as Addatoday followed Taran initially, then probably BOI. Kadel/Jaiswal basically stopped.

 

@194Cr I’d call it a hit, given the negativity around it’s collections it sustained well enough to have 3 solid weeks at the box office.

 

 

Saket’s comment on War

Left this comment on BR’s blog as a response to his War review…

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When I first read this review, I made a mental note of watching War at my leisure, as going to the theatres to watch a YRF film, that too a big-budget actioner, was a big no-no to me. Those bridges have been burnt, beyond repair, by now. And I’m glad it turned out to be the right decision in the end.

If one looks up the definition of a “wannabe” film, War would qualify in a canter. The film’s Hollywood-inspired action scenes are mostly flat and provide little adrenalin rush, if at all. Worse still, some of them just stretch indefinitely – to the point that one just wishes the ordeal were over, one way or another. In the era of Jason Bourne and Casino Royale, can there be a bigger misfit than a Sidharth Anand /YRF attempt at making a slick actioner for the Indian masses?