2013 Box office predictions – Jayshah

Predictions for 2012-2013

Dabangg 2 – Salman Khan, Sonakshi Sinha
Positives – Dabangg was a massive success and the same team come together again for a sequel. The soundtrack is not in the same stratosphere as Dabangg but the expectations are more. Salman Khan is riding high in the best phase of his career with 4 straight moneyspinners in Dabangg, Ready, Bodyguard and Ek Ta Tiger
Negatives – The sequel factor and sky high expectations could work against the film.
Prediction : 180-210 crores
Verdict : Superhit

Race 2 – Saif Ali Khan, Deepika Padukone, John Abraham
Positives – Another sequel of a successful commercial film should ensure a lightening start for Race 2. The combo of commercial, stunts, bikinis, abs and chartbusters should give the film plenty of eyeballs
Negatives – Like Race, the sustainability beyond the first week will be in question. A big opener/fizzler scenario is likely!
Prediction : 80-100 crores
Verdict : Average

Himmatwala – Ajay Devgn
Positives – Comedy and Ajay Devgn have gelled well in the Golmaal series and Bol Bachchan so a decent timepass commercial film is expected. Ajay Devgn has a good track record of late.
Negatives – Sajid Khan and brainless films. Also the film is banking solely on Ajay Devgn without a recognisable co-star.
Prediction : 80-100 crores
Verdict : Average

Yeh Jaawani Hai Deewani – Ranbir Kapoor, Deepika Padukone
Positives – On the back of Barfi, Ranbir’s stock is sky high. The pretender is slowly but surely becoming a major star and this film will rest on his shoulders. A chartbusting soundtrack should be on the offering.
Negatives – Anjaana Anjaani underperformed considerably and its possible this could happen here. Not all romantic films end up doing the business expected.
Prediction : 90-110 crores
Verdict : Semi-Hit

Once Upon A Time in Mumbai 2 – Akshay Kumar, Imran Khan, Sonakshi Sinha
Positives – Another sequel of a very successful film and a decent star cast here. Akshay Kumar once again has a stacked year with Special Chabbis & Naam Hai Boss but this is his best bet for a big one.
Negatives – Hard to find any. This should be a solid performer.
Prediction : 90-110 crores
Verdict : Semi-Hit

Satyagraha – Amitabh Bachchan, Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor
Positives – Prakash Jha’s Rajneeti did well and another big stellar ensemble cast should mean a good start for the film. Good performances and story should be expected.
Negatives – The topical nature of the film could be a detriment…also Prakash Jha’s last effort, Aarakshan did not go down to well with audiences.
Prediction : 90-110 crores
Verdict : Semi-Hit

Chennai Express – Shahrukh Khan, Deepika Padukone
Positives – An all out action-comedy with a repeat cast of Om Shanti Om with potentially chartbusting music should ensure a fantastic opening. The “in” thing is as good as banker as any.
Negatives – Shahrukh Khan’s recent films have promised much in terms of commercial appeal but faltered along the way.
Prediction : 110-130 crores
Verdict : Hit

Krrish 3 – Hrithik Roshan, Priyanka Chopra
Positives – The first of the potential “supergrossers”, the sequel to the blockbuster Krrish will have tremendous wide appeal. Hrithik Roshan is bankable in this format and kids should lap it up.
Negatives – Hard to spot any other than a film that is not up to the mark.
Prediction : 150-175 crores
Verdict : Superhit

Dhoom 3 – Aamir Khan, Abhishek Bachchan, Katrina Kaif
Positives – A successful series, Aamir Khan and Abhishek Bachchan first time and the “Kat” factor, all in all 2013’s biggest film.
Negatives – Like Krrish 3, a film that is not up to the mark
Prediction : 190-210 crores
Verdict : Superhit

P.K – Aamir Khan, Anuksha Sharma
Positives – Hirani + Aamir could equal box office gold again? Need I say more!
Negatives – Sky high expectations of a great film
Prediction : 210-230 crores
Verdict : Blockbuster

Sleepers or surprises: Ghanchakkur, Besharam

65 Responses to “2013 Box office predictions – Jayshah”

  1. Keep it up–well done jayshah
    Haven’t read them but it takes a certain ‘honesty’ & ‘clarity’ to proclaim ones predictions early on
    And to be ready to get it wrong sometimes

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  2. Always good to see this annual post, Jay. I’d add “Arbaaz Khan: Director” to the list of negatives for Dabangg 2. Also I believe Prakash Jha’s last effort was Chakravyuh and did no business to speak of this year, though the cast there is forgettable…which might be why you forgot about it!

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    • LOL on arbaaz! Judging by the trailers though it’s clear Arbaaz has just decided to make a show-reel of a movie. All the Dabanng highlights times 10 here!

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  3. You are too optimistic.

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  4. Fantastic reading this Jay as always! Incidentally the Hirani is not likely to release next year. Apparently D3 is now coming on Christmas. Aamir delayed D3 because of talaash, now he’s delayed PK on account of D3.

    On Dabangg and D3 I’d say this — I wouldn’t consider them superhits if these made 200 crores or whatever off ETT-like initials.

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  5. Good list here Jay and agree with it mostly. But I think Himmatwala should very easily do 110-120 Cr. Also expect Akshay’s Naam Hai Boss to do more than 100. The dark horses can be Dutt’s Saamy Remake and Sunny Deol’s Singh Sahab The Great (Anil Sharma). Besharam should be a big one. YPD 2 can also do 80-90 cr

    And IMO the biggest hit of the yr would be Krrish 3

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    • If there’s a film I’d like to see fail this year it’s Himmatwala. If only because Sajid Khan’s celebration of his own refuse is sickening. And I’m not interested in seeing another argument for the side that thinks masala is synonymous with stupidity.

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      • There were 6 or so previews that were screened during Talaash. K786 and Dabang 2 back to back. I felt sickened. Never thought this would happen specially after all the Yashraj/Johar years. But I guess I underestimated the extent to which a certain disposable form of masala entertainment, primarily by way of Telugu cinema, could become dominant in Bombay. In retrospect it makes sense for all the reasons we’ve discussed before. But it has really reached a stage of ‘too much’ too soon! I enjoyed Rowdy a lot but it says something about the present that this is the best one can expect! It’s not even at Ghajini level forget anything more profound. And most of these films today are very far from Rowdy levels! Plus it’s not just about being satisfactory or inadequate works. These are simply circuses. They push a few buttons, the audience seems debased enough to like this stuff on a repeated basis and that’s about it. The directors don’t have the slightest intention of making films even starting out. They’re just in it to make extended previews that apparently have an audience. I still prefer this alternative to the Yashraj one as it just seems more democratic to have a larger cross-section of the audience in different markets involved. But otherwise I too can’t keep defending this kind of stuff in the name of masala. Essentially the trick that certain brands of Southern masala figured out was that in an age where no one is really interested in the old revolutionary gestures or political subtexts you can strip masala of its soul and simply deliver the pure gestures in very mechanical fashion. All of this becomes a kind of self-parody and the filmmakers are quite conscious of this. The audiences too are happy with this pact.

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        • i don’t care for the democracy argument. it is already too much (just in 3-4 years) and i seriously hope most of these films start going the k786 way soon.

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      • I understand GF but the original Himmatwala was as kitschy a masala as it gets IMO. And it can easily be bettered. Would also say, apart from dancing Devgn is leagues ahead of Jeetendra in everything

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        • I haven’t seen the original but if what one has on hand here is a potentially better Sajid Khan remake of a bad movie, I think I can safely say it’s going to be a train wreck. Devgan btw is one of the chief offenders among these guys that have been jumping on the mutated-masala bandwagon. I don’t really begrudge him his success but I am feeling a bit of the fatigue Satyam has illustrated here, and I rather wouldn’t mind if some of these turkeys started to flop.

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        • Old himmatwala was not so good movie, it was again part of that phase when jeetndra went to south and came with thudering thigh sri devi and movies like that, namely justice chowdhary, himmatwala, tohfa, mawaali and so on. All movies had songs, dances, kader khan and double meaning dialogues…

          Masala has now become like Aloo ki kisi be Sabzi k saath mile deetein hain 🙂

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        • Again I do agree with ur last line.But the only masala film which Devgn has done is Singham which was a more straight remake of an already OTT South masala (SOS was more comedy less Masala) Compare that with Ready and BG of Salman and it seems like a classic. Akshay after Rowdy (I liked it a lot but it was a lowbrow remake of a Ravi Teja film!) is now doing Boss which is the remake of Mammootty’s Pokkiri Raja. Salman has a Kick remake coming up

          Also what abt Shetty’s own BB. It was the remake of the best bwood comedy film ever. But no one complained then. I do agree that it was quite different from the spirit of the original but being an official remake it should have offended any person with good taste. Btw I don’t mean this is as a snide remark to u but commenting in general

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      • Himmatwala was a big hit and more or less this would be too, just like the way it will be a big torcher just like the original.

        on that masala topic- I’d say its much more generic a term than most perceive it to be. For instance, Hirani is serving his own version of Gandhigiri/HopeLikeNeverBefore Masala for his first 3 outings. Kjo has been throwing nothing but “lets show NYC to those wannabe Indians in India” masala. I wont be surprised if the Kashyap inspired, neo indie directors have their own brand of “lets make everything dark” masala , well at least for their intended audience. In any of these subtypes, the script is extremely irrelevant. Its just the intended masala, that is been showcased.

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  6. Utkal Mohanty Says:

    GF: Himmatwala should fail just for the fact that someone thought that film was worth a remake in however modified version.

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  7. Jayshah

    I dont have much knowledge on market, but dont u feel by the time many of this movies release screens would have increased, and their figures would need expansion of atleast 15-20 crores?

    I feel Dabang 2 if a well made movie can show us how a good movie can perform, if well made it shall break 3I.

    I feel any of the above movies if are well made can break 150 atleast.

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  8. btw whats this ‘himmatwaala’ ?
    was it some old hit…havent even come close to seeing it–what the hecks going on here…
    think it was a sridevi film

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  9. i agree with most of the predictions except one specifically. Satyagraha is not coming anywhere near 100cr. Ajay in a non-masala genre brings nothing to the BO and neither does kareena. Amitabh’s BO status is obsolete at this point. think it will end up at about 50cr. also im going to predict that krishh 3 will the biggest grosser for 2013 and D3 will be second and both will cross 200cr.

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    • there is one potential hazard with krrish which is that unlike the previous film here they’re trying to go all out and ‘bigger’ not just than the previous films but everything else loosely in the action-stunt genre. It’s sometimes easily to lose the script with these things even if Rakesh Roshan is pretty grounded in this sense. if both films lived upto their absolute potential D3 would outgross Krrish and I think by a comfortable margin. Why? Because a well-scripted D3 would have equal appeal across the board. Krrish 2 despite doing so well was significantly behind D3’s number. It actually did hugely well in smaller centers. This was true for KMG as well. Both films were huge across the board but still held up better in smaller centers. Because Rakesh Roshan’s Indianization while essential in one sense is also too corny at another level to completely convince multiplex audiences. Hrithik gets them in, there’s the younger audience factor and so on but repeat value is not assured with all segments of the audience.

      With d3 too there are potential pitfalls hard as it might be to see this. The initial isn’t the issue here. But trending could be. First of the director has just made Tashan before this which had its moments but was overall a mess of a film. Aamir seems to like him a lot nonetheless which probably means a much better script here. Now I have always believed that the first Dhoom was by far better than the second but D3 has the best chance of having the best script of the three. However if the script is taken more in the ‘serious’ direction audiences just looking for eye-candy might not be completely satisfied. on the other hand unlike the first two films this isn’t an eye-candy deal anyway. Aamir isn’t in the John/Hrithik mold. Abhishek was still good for this terrain (in a sheer physical sense) in the first film and not in the second. This time around he won’t repeat the same mistakes but he still can’t make up for the Aamir ‘lack’ on this score (at least after 2005 or that phase in general his calling card hasn’t been that of a sex symbol). So for the first time you get two ‘cerebral’ actors on terrain that is not cerebral at all! The only way to rescue this is to have a really good script and have enough for both actors to do. Otherwise it’s pointless to even cast Aamir here. Here it strikes me that Vijay Krishna Acharya might be better suited to understand some of these dynamics going by at least the ‘Bachchan’ moments in Tashan. But again the tone he strikes in addition to the script are crucial.

      Nonetheless Aamir adds an element of ‘newness’ to D3 precisely because he’s otherwise not a natural fit for this terrain. Krrish is far more predictable on this score.

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      • yes, dhoom 2 was a bigger grosser than krrish too, even the hrithik factor being the same. and people may dispute this, but aamir is a bigger star than hrithik any day. so opening wise, d3 will probably score little higher, the rest depends on content.
        since they are as close in vibe as it can get, the total here may settle a lot of the silly box-office debate.

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      • “Nonetheless Aamir adds an element of ‘newness’ to D3 precisely because he’s otherwise not a natural fit for this terrain. Krrish is far more predictable on this score.”

        this is why i said what i said. i don’t think K3 will be significantly higher but IMO it will be a bit higher.

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  10. Interesting post/predictions

    Well Dabangg 2 falls under 2012 and fully expect it to challenge Ek Tha Tiger and no 1 spot.

    Dhoom 3 or Krishh 3 will challenge for the no1 spot next year. Don’t even know what Salman is doing next… so Aamir and HR will battle it out.

    One of my most awaited films next year is OUATI 2 as I loved the first film.

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    • Sher Khan I think.

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      • i have doubts about sher khan–due to various reasons–beginning with that meh name …(besides director)

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      • Naa it’s not happening. That film has been announced and then postponed far too many times. Plus Sohail seems to be enjoying himself on Comedy Circus so don’t see Sher Khan materialising.

        He has No Entry sequel, Kick, Prabhudeva film (all confirmed) and inside reports another YRF in the offing. If only he or his team announce what’s next.

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        • Bachchan1 to 10 Says:

          I have read somewhere that sohail not making Sher Khan next, Salman and Sohail picked up rights to another south indian movie and that’s what’s next on the card for salman. Shoot to start in Jan if i am not wrong.

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        • Forgot to add the rajishri film (oh how I wish that happens). Salman as Prem in the rajishri films has always been fantastic and doing such a film now would be a welcome change.

          Hope Sooraj Bajratya makes it happen.

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  11. dhoom3 vs krish3

    everyone seems to agree that krish3 will vie with dhoom3–
    mind u, dhoom3 is currently the biggest franchise and has the advantage of a universally loved genre, past big successes, yrf and the novelty/curiosity a new villain (himself one of the biggest stars aamir previosuly hr) brings to it—add to that, katrina who herself is a big ‘hero’ currently
    And HRs solo franchise is expectedly to vie with it
    That explains why i rate hritik highly as a box office star…(those who asked)

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    • But Krrish is a pretty big franchise too. Both films so far have been big successes. Plus there’s also the Filmkraft factor here. Every film with the father has been a big success. So this is hardly something secondary here! It’s as much of a special case. This is not ‘typical’ for Hrithik by any means. Huge as Hrithik has always been as a star he’s considerably more mortal when you move him away from Filmkraft. Or a remake/sequel deal with lots of frills. It’s not the Salman deal where no matter what a huge initial is guaranteed.

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      • thats why salman is currently the biggest box office star right now.
        The discussion about aamir has been sealed as of now after talaash about challenging salman..
        Getting a gr8 figure with dhoom3/PK, wont be the same achievement
        srk is a bit behind aamir, HR right now (after jthj) to be fair..
        “moving away from filmkraft’—thats why HR is not THE no1 but among the three currently below salman –(with aamir, ssrk)
        Each of them can fire in the right project (dhoom3, pk) but salman is going through a grotesque abnormal phase (which wont last long)

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        • “The discussion about aamir has been sealed as of now after talaash about challenging salman..”

          speak for yourself buddy! Also why does he not get credit for D3? Did Hrithik get no credit for D2?! and why the Hirani film?! Also why does hrithik get any credit for Agneepath when that too is a sequel and had lots of frills attached to it?! You weirdly have two different kinds of accounting going on here. Everything that is a positive on one side becomes a negative on the other. As for Talaash I thought DG already proved Aamir couldn’t get an ETT like total?

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  12. “The discussion about aamir has been sealed as of now after talaash about challenging salman..”

    You mean the discussion you’ve been having with yourself? Good to hear, I thought there was no end in sight.

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  13. haha that was a deliberate sting/trap left and got the anticipated response 🙂
    its such fun..
    as for box office– i repeat–currently salman IS the number 1 now.
    (atleast till dhoom3, pk get that ‘expected’ total)
    till that happens, it is just conjecture..(also for krish3)–as jthj showed nothing can be taken for granted when dealing wiht such 200+ numbers—also one bad day(s) in the first week/end and the total comes down
    so till then, one can only judge by the ACTUAL numbers till now
    and as per the evidence, only salman seems to be doing it at will and with crap stuff

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    • “haha that was a deliberate sting/trap left and got the anticipated response”

      you should have specified – ‘fun intended’ 😛

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  14. “you should have specified – ‘fun intended’ –hahah paaapaas
    perhaps u r new but thats true for most of my posts–its understood..
    I do leave these deliberate ‘traps’ and expectedly, satyam /gf fell for it–i KNEW their response even while typing it
    🙂

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  15. good post jay as always:
    – D3 and Dabaang2 will do same business? Nah…..D3 will be ahead of Dabaang2 at-least by 40-50 cr – D3 will do 250cr
    – P.K. will release next year which can again do 250 cr
    – Race2 might just bomb at the b.o. – nothing is going in its favor at the moment – teasers, stills…
    – Krish3 may challenge Dabaang2
    – Once upon…this is tricky as i think they should have retained Ajay. Akki has lost that image of intense, brooding action hero as he has been overdoing those mindless comedies. It will be hard to replace ajay with any other actor here…….I will keep my fingers crossed here
    – Ranbir also has Besharam in 2013 – which can join 100 cr club
    – Then you have murder3 – emraan hashmi’s stock is steady and audience is bullish on it 🙂 100 cr is given here
    – Phata poster nikla hero – can shahid get back to his sha”hit” status with this? R. k. Santoshi and Ileana (:-) ) are part of the team here
    – Bhaag Milkha Bhaag – this might be a surprise hit and may do 100 cr in the nation deprived of meaningful sports films
    – Sallu’s Sher Khan releases on Aug 8 (2013) – 200 cr here also can be done deal – in fact, i would put this ahead of Dabaang2
    – Sallu’s Kick is also releasing in 2013? – man, how many 200 cr films this guy is riding on? 🙂

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  16. Good predictions Jay.

    Agree on all except Himmatwala. This will be a solid Hit, potentially 110-130 Crore.

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  17. Wow that is some line up of biggies coming up in 2013.
    Dabang I expect would land somewhere in ETT range.
    Of the others Krish 3 is my most anticipated film of 2013. It will break every record next Diwali . D3 I expect would fall short of Krish 3. OUATIM is another biggie with all possibility of 140-150 cr.

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  18. Further predictions:
    Flops – Satyagrah, Race 2.
    Average- Himmatwala, Boss, Special Chabbis
    Hits- Dabang, Krish 3,OUTIM, Dhoom 3, Both Ranbir starrers
    Subsidy Hit- Chenhai Express:) Hit due to subsidised train ticket costs for the film unit by southern railway authorities.

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  19. Interesting analysis,Jay.
    As a famous vice president once said , it is difficult to mske predictions – more so about the future! I think it has become increasingly difficult to make predictions about Bollywood films. JTHJ is a good example. Most people were expecting it to do phenomenal business but it turned out to be a damp squib. I was also very skeptical about Talaash’s reach but there were quite a few that expected mega business here including the trade pundits. I think for many of this films big openings are a given but not the final gross. Am quite skeptical about Dabaang 2. Sure it will have a huge opening but not so sure about the final total. I m also less upbeat about Krrish3. I liked KMG quite a bit but found Krrish somewhat labored and underwhelming. Hrithik has star power but superhero can be a hit or miss thing. It is never going to fail but it is not a given that it will be huge. Unless Roshan Sr. ups the game quite a bit. Satyagraha is a risk too.
    The only one that I think is a given is D3. Chennai Express too but at a lower level. Peekay sure has a lot of potential but am not sure the concept is capable of 3I kind of business, Hirani and all.
    Race 2 might surprise and do better than you have predidcted.
    Anyways, always a pleasure to see a BO post from you.

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  20. I like Devgun million times more than Jeetu but nobody and I mean nobody can beat Jeetendra at his game. He was just damn good at that garbage. While being awful! It is like being good at putting out the smelliest dump! Sorry, thats rather nauseous!

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    • have to agree! One wonders how low Sajid Khan will have to fall. He’s already scraping the bottom of the barrel. Can’t possibly go lower. Meanwhile the original was doing the very same thing. You combine the two and you probably have a real nightmare!

      And now from the ridiculous to the sublime my favorite Jeetendra film is Kinara (Gulzar). Also has one of my favorite songs:

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      • I do have a certain grudging respect for Jeetu. Was hard working and in the pre Gym days was the one of the rare ones who tried to keep himself fit. Read somewhere that while shooting abroad if he had a hearty meal would do spot jogging in the bedroom for half an hour!
        Kinaara was a gem inspite of the obvious nspiration and lovely songs including the one you mention.
        Have special affection for Ek Hi Khwaab by Bhupinder.

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  21. good predictions but i would say p.k. would do a business of 300-350 crores in India itself because 3i released in just 1500 screens and did 202 cr and p.k. if released on a holiday and with no big releases nearby in 3500 to 4000 screens as the whole 3i team is coming back(except Madhavan which doesnt make a difference) and has two big names-AAMIR and RAJU HIRANI which guarentees a quality film with a script with rare subject of godmen.

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  22. Niranjan Says:

    I totally agree with D3 and krish3 but mind it Himmatwala will b a blockbuster Ajay is himself capable 2 carry boxoffice on his potential and the duo of sajid and ajay will done the flick.
    150 cr+

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  23. rajeshroshan66767603 Says:

    It is interesting to revisit this and will be evn more interesting after the year…YJHD have upped the bar I think and the equations have changed…and K3 and D3 have to do like 220cr+ now??

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  24. It is difficult to predict. Very very difficult.
    Himmatwala proving a disaster was unexpected with all those super promos. YJHD becoming blockbuster was also unexpected. Race 2 and Dabangg 2 predictions were ok.

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    • ideaunique Says:

      “with all those super promos” ??? hum where were they? 🙂 Only that saaki song was good that too because of original hit

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      • rajeshroshan66767603 Says:

        Yeah the Himmatwala promos were pathetic…the comedy looked cheap from the trailers itself and didn’t tickle a bone. I wasn’t surprised on its box office outcome after I saw the trailers. But before the promos I also didn’t think it will be such a flop.

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  25. rajeshroshan66767603 Says:

    ETT and YJHD did around 180-190crrs…given D3 and K3 sequels of highly successful franchise I don’t think 220crrs is high bar at all…I checked the release dates and both movies don’t have anything big coming before or after them. Given the favorite Christmas date of Aamir for D3..even 250crrs bar isn’t shocking (given it just doesn’t turn out to be outright horrible)

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