JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Short Kut and short lived at box office…ditto Kambakkht Ishq

Note all numbers are from Trade Guide

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be one’s I have computed in the past
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

Short Kut – The Con is On & Sankat City

Both new releases had short lived reigns at the box office after very poor opening day occupancies. Short Kut was expected to do much better with a more well known cast and some promise from previews between the lead pair Akshaye Khanna and Arshad Warsi. However, the reception both critically and commercially was lukewarm and the film failed to show any significant pick up over the first weekend. In the end, the collections are a low 6.1-6.6Cr [comparison with 13B, Dhoondte Reh Jaoge and Paying Guests] with Mumbai contributing 1.3Cr.

Sankat City on the other hand did win over some critics but at the box office the results were equally poor. Net collections as low as 0.4-0.5Cr by the end of the week suggest little opportunity for improvement in the coming week. Both Short Kut and Sankat City look certain flops.

Past Releases

Kambakkht Ishq

Despite the huge release of Kambakkht Ishq, the second week collections suggest a very different story. The performance is woeful with a huge drop across most reported centres.

KI Week 2 vs KI Week 1
88% Mumbai means KI fell by 88% in Mumbai in Week 2

Mumbai 88%
Ahmedabad 84%
Rajkot 75%
Himmatnagar 73%
Gandhinagar 81%
Guwahati 58%
Jamnagar 50%
Nasik 79%
Faridabad 80%
Gorakhpur 61%
Gurgaon 76%
Indore 74%
Nagpur 90%
Raipur 85%
Ujjain 59%
Sehore 23%
Kolkatta 97%
Jaipur 72%
Hyderabad 90%
Aurangabad 27%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 76%
Mumbai is an incomplete number but the likelihood is the fall is great there. Even otherwise, the collections across India prove that KI has been carrying poor word of mouth most probably from the first weekend after.

The KI Week 1 total for the above centres = 3.74Cr (ignoring any centre with fall greater than 85%)
The KI Week 2 total for the above centres = 0.80Cr (ignoring any centre with fall greater than 85%)

This means that KI’s Week 2 total is 24% of KI’s Week 1 total (0.80/3.74 = 24%)

Using my own KI Week 1 Total of 32.5-34.0Cr, KI’s Week 2 Total = 24% * (32.5-34.0) = 7.7-8.1Cr

KI 2 Week Total = 32.5-34.0Cr(Week 1) + 7.7-8.1Cr(Week 2) = 40.2 – 42.1Cr

Verdict – Below Average

Kambakkht Ishq had one good week overall which saves the film from a flop tag. But make no mistakes, the film is a huge underperformer and by most accounts the word of mouth has been poor. Though the producers and “trade experts” may claim otherwise, the numbers are there for all to see and significant fall in week two is the biggest indicator that the slide had happened much earlier on.

New York

New York steadied well in week three to record good collections. The film as predicted fought back after the dip in the second week due to Kambakkht Ishq’s release.

New York Week 3 vs New York Week 2
50% Mumbai means New York fell by 50% in Mumbai in Week 3

Mumbai 50%
Gandhinagar 42%
Himmatnagar 76%
Jamnagar 46%
Rajkot 60%
Nasik 24%
Gurgaon 73%
Faridabad 71%
Gorakhpur 46%
Indore 60%
Nagpur 76%
Jaipur 75%
Guwahati 49%
Kolkatta 96%
Hyderabad 86%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 66%
Week 3 drop = 50%
New York steadied very well particularly in the key centre of Mumbai.

The New York Week 1 total for the above centres = 6.06Cr (ignoring any centre with fall greater than 70%)
The New York Week 3 total for the above centres = 1.03Cr (ignoring any centre with fall greater than 70%)

This means that New York’s Week 3 total is 17% of New York’s Week 1 total (1.03/6.06 = 17%)

Using my own New York Week 1 Total of 26.0-27.0Cr, New York’s Week 3 Total = 17% * (26.0-27.0) = 4.4-4.6Cr

New York 3 Week Total = 26.0-27.0Cr(Week 1) + 8.9-9.2Cr(Week 2) + 4.4-4.6Cr(Week 3) = 39.3 – 40.8Cr

Verdict – Hit

New York will hit the 45Cr from here on in so qualifies as a hit. The third week has shown reasonable assurance and confidence that the film has legs and emerges as the first hit for any major biggie of the year.

January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)

February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)

March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)

April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)

June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 39.3 – 40.8Cr (Hit)

July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 40.2 – 42.1Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 6.1 – 6.6Cr (Poor Opening Week)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Poor Opening Week)