JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Kaminey scores impressively in opening week…

Note all numbers are from Trade Guide

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be one’s I have computed in the past
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

Kaminey & Life Partner

Kaminey had a fantastic pre-release campaign with a hugely positive response to promos and soundtrack. The expectations of a strong opening were high and the first week lived up to the hype despite swine flu outbreak reducing collections from Mumbai and Pune. The opening was huge across India, mainly in major cities and multiplexes aided by Indpendance Day weekend collections – though collections were lower from smaller centres.

The response overall from audiences is not definite – the second week will paint a clearer picture. Critics have given the film a massive thumps up – Vishal Bharadwaj’s direction and authentic screenplay plus the lead pair Shahid Kapoor and Priyanka Chopra’s performances coming in for special praise.

The other release of the week, Life Partner, a multistar comedy with Govinda, Fardeen Khan, Tusshar Kapoor and Genelia D’Souza achieved a mixed response overall. Collecting around 10-11Cr in the first week after a steady first weekend – the opening is just about passable as fair. Around 2-3Cr were lost due to non release in Pune and Mumbai [weekend]. Life Partner will require a good second week to avoid being labeled a flop.

Week 1 Kaminey vs Week 1 Race
Mumbai -77% means that Race is 77% MORE than Kaminey in Week 1

Mumbai -77%
Nasik -41%
Kolhapur -81%
Solapur -231%
Satara -112%
Karad -67%
Gadhinglaj -132%
Islampur -162%
Goa -25%
Malegaon -64%
Shrirampur -133%
Kopargaon -190%
Pandharpur -22%
Rahuri -162%
Ghulewadi -35%
Sangamner -249%
Loni -273%
Narayangaon -58%
Sinnar -126%
Hupri -95%
Baramati -31%
Junnar -112%
Shirrol -137%
Barsi -64%
Jaisingpur -118%
Ahmedabad -146%
Gandhinagar -401%
Baroda -43%
Anand -134%
Bharuch -553%
Himmatnagar -215%
Bhopal -8458%
Naroda -35%
Mehsana -84%
Nadiad -1506%
Dahod 8%
Kalol -126%
Dabhoi -209%
Borsad -100%
Ankleshwar -154%
Bardoli -99%
Kosamba -116%
Jamnagar -28%
Rajkot -12%
Gandhidham -49%
Adipur -109%
Bhuj -69%
Madhapar -66%
Junagadh -29%
Porbandar -12%
Surendranagar -80%
Jetpur -259%
Mahuva -119%
Dhoraji -314%
Belgaum 10%
Hubli -64%
Bijapur -119%
Karwar -43%
Bagalkot 6%
Jaipur -25%
Ajmer 38%
Kota 2%
Jodhpur -26%
Bikaner 21%
Alwar -98%
Beawar -42%
Bhilwara -1%
Delhi -151%
Noida 13%
Ghaziabad -169%
Agra -81%
Allahabad -2%
Kanpur -60%
Lucknow 4%
Moradabad -23%
Varanasi -22%
Gorakhpur 29%
Rampur 27%
Dehradun 21%
Aligarh 21%
Muzaffaranagar -1330%
Pratapgarh -42%
Saharanpur -83%
Shamli -46%
Sitapur -100%
Varanasi -361%
Moradabad -615%
Mathura -11%
Khurja -118%
Haldwani 27%
Jhansi -153%
Azamgarh 30%
Balia -54%
Bareilly -15%
Baraut -33%
Gondia -132%
Chandigarh 38%
Faridabad 0%
Gurgaon 26%
Ludhiana -159%
Panchkula 33%
Hissar -73%
Jalandhar -33%
Rohtak 75%
Patiala -219%
Amritsar -123%
Bhatinda -146%
Jammu -459%
Solan 12%
Rewari -1201%
Hyderabad -12%
Nagpur 15%
Raipur 1%
Amravati -33%
Jalgaon -18%
Khandwa 72%
Chandrapur -43%
Durg 15%
Wardha -1%
Dhule -40%
Bhilai -63%
Sagar -92%
Gondia -69%
Balaghat -11%
Itarsi -40%
Ambikapur 19%
Dhamatari -59%
Aurangabad -8689%
Muzaffaranagar -1900%
Kolkatta 71%
Burdwan 27%
Darjeeling -17%
Gangtok -9%
Latur -91%
Aurangabad -48%
Nizamabad -132%
Jalna -20%
Parbhani -462%
Chennai -17%
Coimbatore 10%
Vellore -5%
Bangalore -6%
Mysore -99%

The cumulative centre total in 123 centres for Kaminey = 13.05Cr (ignored 20 centres)
The cumulative centre total in 123 centres for Race = 16.57Cr (ignored 20 centres)

This means that Kaminey is 79% of Race’s total (13.05/16.57 = 79%)

Using Race’s Week 1 total of 32.1Cr (less Pune), Kaminey’s Week 1 = 79% * (32.1) = 25.3Cr

A similar exercise with Welcome and Sarkar Raaj yields the following outputs;
Welcome ~ 24.4Cr (using Welcome first week figure of 30.2Cr less Pune)
Sarkar Raaj ~ 25.1Cr (using Sarkar Raaj first week figure of 23.35Cr less Pune)

Kaminey 1 Week Total = 24.5-25.5Cr(Week 1) = 24.5-25.5Cr

Verdict – Fantastic Week One

Kaminey, considering the genre, has posted a big first week total. The total would have been around 30Cr if the film had a full release across Mumbai and Pune. Despite the strong first week, like Love Aaj Kal, Kaminey will need to post a decent second week to be declared a hit. The prospects of good trending are higher as the film should release fully across Mumbai and Pune – so the second week total should be around 12-15Cr if the film holds up well.

Past Releases

Love Aaj Kal

Saif Ali Khan’s maiden production fell significantly due to heavy competition and lower collections from Mumbai and Pune. Despite this, the 72% drop is not bad all things considered. The drop equates to around 4.4-4.5Cr collections in the third week – so Love Aaj Kal now has three week collections of around 62.0-64.2Cr. The romance which also stars Deepika Padukone is a hit.

January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)

February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)

March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)

April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

May 2009
99 : 11.9 – 12.5Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.6 – 0.7Cr (Flop)

June 2009
Maruti Mera Dosst : 0.2 – 0.3Cr (Flop)
Team – The Force : 1.5 – 1.7Cr (Flop)
Kal Kissne Dekha : 5.6 – 6.0Cr (Disaster)
Paying Guests : 6.9 – 7.5Cr (Flop)
New York : 42.5 – 44.4Cr (Hit)

July 2009
Kambakkht Ishq : 43.8 – 45.9Cr (Below Average)
Short Kut : 7.0 – 7.6Cr (Flop)
Sankat City : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Jashnn : 1.8 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Luck : 21.5 – 22.8Cr (Flop)
Love Aaj Kal : 62.0 – 64.2Cr (Hit)

August 2009
Agyaat : 5.1 – 5.4Cr (Flop)
Teree Sang : 1.7 – 1.9Cr (Flop)
Life Partner : 10.0 – 11.0Cr (Fair Opening)
Kaminey : 24.5 – 25.5Cr (Excellent Opening)

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30 Responses to “JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – Kaminey scores impressively in opening week…”

  1. great work as always Jay..

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  2. Great work, Jay.
    I did expect a touch more from Kaminey. But I guess its a little too dark. Second weeks falls, I am afraid will be substantial.

    Like

    • I agree with that.. either the opening was hyped too much or the fall was significant beginning Mon.. weekdays I am led to believe were strong in Bombay so the weekend loss can’t be taken as simply the business lost over the first weekend without accounting for stronger than usual weekday business. But here’s a deconstructive view in another sense. The film, if it ends around let’s say even 45 crores would have nore or less replicated the Omkara trajectory (12 crores or so leading to 23 crores or a bit more. I also think it’s partly the dark theme (we saw this with SR as well) but more the fact that for all the skillful film-making in display here there is little emotional connection made with the viewer but equally there is not much that resonates in the mind after one is done with the film as one would expect given its many strengths.

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      • Satyam: perhaps, but it also reflects that the audience for “darker” fare remains smaller — and by quite a margin — than the audience for more mainstream genres…

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        • absolutely.. but one would have hoped that between Omkara and Kaminey some change would have come about.. one would have been wrong to imagine this as I certainly was.. but this is also one of the reasons why I am always deeply skeptical about how progressive multiplex audiences really are in any sense..

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      • Satyam, review toh chahiye

        Like

  3. I think after all the hype Kaminey should have opened higher. It is getting mixed WOM from the audience. So I have a feeling you are going to see a big drop in the second week. The people who were excited about the movie have seen it and others will just wait for dvd.

    Like

  4. jayshah.. firstly congrats top of the tablle 2 out of 2 it does seem like unbelievable start for spurs… I hope u win third time on the run.. & defoe has really improved a lot..

    utd thrashed wigan today & hope we make u happy by beating Arsenal next week 😉

    for bo great work as usual jay.. (oops I forgot that line is patented By satyam 🙂 )

    Like

  5. May be Satyam should write a review and encourage one or two to watch movie!

    Like

  6. I think Kaminey did decently considering it got A certificate, and lost atleast 6 crores from Pune (2 crore) and Mumbai (atleast 4 crores). It costed around 40 crore; I think it would It would recover most of its cost by selling its other rights.

    Like

    • It’s definitely done well Munna.. I am just arguing that the hype might have led one to expect more.. Nahata of course was always a downer on this one.

      Like


  7. ‘Mumbai is the toughest place for a regional filmmaker’

    “Here, Palekar gives the example of A Wednesday. “Even without high decibel marketing, A Wednesday did well after its release; it gradually grew in numbers as time passed. In comparison, a film that is focused on getting in maximum people in the first weekend will achieve only that, and see a decline in audience thereafter.” But Palekar agrees that a good film, if not marketed well, could get lost amidst the biggies. “

    Like

  8. I really believe this film lose out because of the weekend Mumbai-Pune non release. The film still hasn’t released in Pune!! – so that is a potential loss of anywhere between 2-3 cr.

    Anyway, let’s see how it goes. Thanks for this Jay, was waiting for this col yesterday and I see it today IST

    Like

  9. The films lost out huge to Pune and Mumbai – definitely two centres where I am sure the film would have posted huge numbers. I’m not sure how the film will go in week two, I must say like Satyam am little disappointed overall with box office – but no one can put a price on how much the swine flu is affecting collections.

    If the film reaches 50Cr total that will be a big achievement – its not a family film so that audience is a complete goner.

    Like

  10. mksrooney Says:

    jayshah- i think spurs will beat west ham today.. (fact is wenever i say they will win they never 😦 )..\

    my predictn-

    1-2

    Like

  11. jayshah -I got it wrong By a gol…

    congrats spurs on top… can this be spurs season …
    defoe superb again…

    Like

  12. Kaminey fell 70% in the US – $220,326.

    I have been reading a lot of mixed WOM. I don’t think this movie is going to sustain even in India.

    Like

  13. Sikandar grossed a whopping $1954. Out of this $30-40 must have come from Qlaandar wh must have seen it 3-4 times already.

    Like

  14. August 24, 2009
    Brad Pitt Pulls Them In at the Box Office
    By BROOKS BARNES

    LOS ANGELES — Whew: “Inglourious Basterds,” the risky Quentin Tarantino picture that the struggling Weinstein Company badly needed to be a hit, sold a stout $37.6 million in tickets over the weekend.

    The better-than-expected total was easily enough to make this R-rated film No. 1 at the weekend box office, according to Hollywood.com, which tracks results. The figures also strongly validate the ability of Brad Pitt to open a movie, even in a summer when other big-star vehicles have not been clicking with audiences. The Weinstein Company, led by Harvey Weinstein, built the marketing campaign for the film largely around Mr. Pitt (who appears in only about half of the film).

    In a statement on Sunday, Harvey and Bob Weinstein, the company’s co-owners, called the results “fantastic” and said, “This is a film that wowed audiences the way that only Quentin Tarantino can.”

    Overseas “Inglourious Basterds” sold an estimated $27.5 million, according to the film’s international distributor, Universal Pictures. The movie will roll out to 42 more countries in the coming weeks.

    Critical reviews were mostly positive for “Inglourious Basterds,” which helped to persuade people wary of Mr. Tarantino’s brand of violence to buy tickets. The fictional movie, described by Mr. Tarantino as a “spaghetti western with World War II iconography,” focuses on a band of Jewish American soldiers who brutally kill Nazis.

    The worldwide results have amounted to something of a comeback for Mr. Tarantino, whose last directing effort, half of the 2007 double bill “Grindhouse,” flopped badly. “Inglourious Basterds” cost an estimated $80 million to produce, before tax rebates.

    It’s also a turnaround for the Weinstein Company, which has lately suffered from a string of bombs and an overextension into other businesses like fashion and social networking. Box office analysts noted that it could be the start of a roll for the company, which will release “Halloween II” next weekend.

    “District 9” was second at the weekend box office with an estimated $18.9 million in ticket sales. A science-fiction thriller independently produced by Peter Jackson and QED International and released by Sony, it is a surprise hit with total domestic ticket sales of about $73.5 million.

    “G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra” (Paramount) chugged along in third place with an estimated $12.5 million, bringing its cumulative total in North America to $120.5 million. “The Time Traveler’s Wife” (Warner Brothers) held steady in its second weekend, selling an estimated $10 million ($37.4 million total) for fourth place.

    “Julie & Julia” (Sony) rounded out the Top 5 with an estimated $9 million ($59.3 million).

    Like

  15. Bollywood on self-healing path with four hits
    IANS

    New Delhi: Energetic openings to Bollywood’s four recent releases, New York, Kambakkht Ishq, Love Aaj Kal and Kaminey, have succeeded in perking up the business. Wounded by a long strike earlier this year, the film industry is perhaps on a self-healing path now, say trade pundits.

    The two-month-long stand-off between the producers-distributors and multiplex owners over revenue sharing, which was resolved on June 5, led to a whopping Rs 300 crore loss to the Hindi film industry.

    The dry spell was broken by Kabir Khan’s New York that released on June 26 followed by the other three films — Kambakkht Ishq that came on July 3, Love Aaj Kal on July 31 and Kaminey on August 14 — raking in a net profit close to almost half the losses so far this year.

    “These four films will do a net business of Rs.150 crore (Rs.1.5 billion) put together,” revealed an industry insider.

    Said trade analyst Taran Adarsh: “The industry is definitely on a recovery path… it is getting better now, but we do need a big number of hits to follow as even an A-list movie like Luck bombed.

    “Every movie has a luck of its own. For example, a small-budget film like ‘A Wednesday’ had a moderate release last year but proved to be a dark horse. At the end of the day it’s the content that will win.”

    Film critic Omar Qureshi had something similar to say.

    “The industry is healing. Everyone was deprived of movies. There was a desperation to watch films and the audiences couldn’t handle it. So they took multiplexes by storm once good movies hit the screens and the result is worth watching,” said Qureshi.

    “But that doesn’t mean mediocre movies will win the race too… it’ll only take big-budget and big-banner movies with a good story to make up for the losses and bring in footfalls,” he added.

    The stand-off between producers-distributors and multiplex owners started in February over revenue-sharing. While the producers demanded a flat 50 per cent share of all film revenues irrespective of the stars, budget and box-office collection, the exhibitors stressed on sharing profits based on the movie’s earnings.

    As a result the producers declared a strike from April 4 onwards, which saw no big Bollywood releases in multiplexes across the country.

    Now all eyes are set on an array of big releases after the lull.

    The line-up includes Shahid Kapoor-Rani Mukerji starrer Dil Bole Hadippa, three movies of Salman Khan — Wanted, Main Aur Mrs Khanna and London Dreams — two Ranabir Kapoor-starrers Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani and Rocket Singh – Salesman of The Year, and Aamir Khan’s 3 Idiots.

    Apart from these, there are also Hrithik Roshan’s much-talked-about action thriller Kites, Priyanka Chopra’s What’s Your Raashee?, two movies starring Amitabh Bachchan — Aladdin and Pa — Akshay Kumar’s De Dana Dan, Govinda’s Hook Ya Crook and Neil Nitin Mukesh’s Jail.

    Like

  16. BoC:

    MUMBAI: After 10 days at the box office, UTV Motion Pictures’ Kaminey has done a net business of Rs 330 million (Rs 33 crore), whereas Studio 18’s Life Partner has done a net business of Rs 140 million (Rs 14 crore) in India.

    In the overseas, Kaminey did business of $10,72,624 in the US, $3,49,251 across the UK and $6,42,233 in the UAE. The box ofice figures recorded in Pakistan were $1,47,000 and $1,83,183 in Australia according to UTV.

    On the other hand, in its opening week, Life Partner did a net business of Rs 105 million (Rs 10.5 crore) whereas the second weekend net collections were Rs 35 million (Rs 3.5 crore), taking the total net for 10 days to Rs 140 million.

    Like

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