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JayShah Box Office Column (rebooted) – HF4 vs War collections

Assumptions

  • Using Film Information data
  • Assumes trend in reported centres is correlated with unreported centres (fair assumption considering huge # of centres reported)
  • The collections of estimated movie (A) are = Screen Ratio * CollectionRatio * reported total of comparative movie’s collections (B)
  • Collection Ratio = Total reported collections of estimated movie (A) / Total reported collections of comparative movie on like for like reported centres (B)
  • Further comparison will be done when more movies are available i.e. Dabangg 3
HF4 *War (9 day)
Week 1 Like for like centres 854,743,777 1,387,311,394
# centres ratio
184 62%
Screens 3500 4000
Screen ratio 88%
Film Information
Reported Collections 86 139
Unreported Collections 49 51
Total Collections 134 238
Ratio Reported/Unreported 64% 59%
Jayshah Est 128 Screen Ratio * Collection Ratio * 238
Kadel 115
Jaiswal 115
BOI 136
Komal 134
Bollywood Hungama 129
Addatoday 141
Average excluding jayshah 128

My estimate is at 128CR roughly the average all other sources combined. Based on this Bollywood Hungama’s estimate is the best overall suggesting that Kadel/Jaiswal chalked off crores and BOI/Komal added some.

There are 184 centres in total.

Examples of territory and centre comparison below

Major Territory Sum of HF4 Sum of War Ratio
BENGAL 49,189,620 141,673,397 288%
BOMBAY CITY-SUBURBS 163,599,847 213,770,716 131%
C.I. 32,269,884 43,504,540 135%
C.P. BERAR 38,527,866 43,490,335 113%
DELHI CITY-SUBURBS 70,359,095 135,016,194 192%
EAST PUNJAB 67,147,960 142,118,041 212%
GOA 7,391,382 10,734,585 145%
GUJARAT 91,762,281 86,781,665 95%
KARNATAKA 4,519,311 6,421,031 142%
MAHARASHTRA 57,217,780 81,788,199 143%
RAJASTHAN 66,377,796 80,857,965 122%
SAURASHTRA 15,467,154 12,556,927 81%
SOUTH 71,297,712 160,747,339 225%
U.P. 120,864,530 227,850,460 189%
Grand Total 855,992,218 1,387,311,394 162%

 

Centre HF4 War Ratio
BOMBAY 97,067,404 136,179,973 140%
DELHI 70,359,095 135,016,194 192%
THANE 66,341,981 77,420,762 117%
PUNE 38,046,825 62,169,353 163%
JAIPUR 35,046,346 45,736,224 131%
AHMEDABAD 29,349,457 39,984,779 136%
BANGALORE 28,554,743 70,658,498 247%
SURAT 26,881,037 20,178,049 75%
CALCUTTA 23,683,867 80,194,048 339%
LUCKNOW 22,128,357 40,276,914 182%
NOIDA 18,276,654 43,856,253 240%
GHAZIABAD 17,507,967 36,594,668 209%
HYDERABAD 17,007,517 39,798,155 234%
GURGAON 16,086,554 38,301,630 238%
BARODA 14,241,240 11,440,650 80%
KANPUR 11,881,610 17,284,723 145%
INDORE 11,504,840 18,679,265 162%
AGRA 9,758,028 16,266,273 167%
RAIPUR 8,347,438 10,648,851 128%
BHOPAL 8,277,096 12,112,804 146%
NAGPUR 8,030,253 10,230,791 127%
FARIDABAD 7,871,508 14,134,562 180%
GOA 7,391,382 10,734,585 145%
NASIK 7,363,805 7,926,397 108%
RAJKOT 6,716,067 5,609,576 84%
JODHPUR 6,409,376 7,567,240 118%
AURANGABAD 5,800,894 6,661,985 115%
ALLAHABAD 5,712,497 9,835,562 172%
BHUBANESHWAR 5,323,835 15,240,761 286%
AJMER 5,319,923 4,100,899 77%
LUDHIANA 5,089,463 10,869,396 214%
JAMNAGAR 4,907,452 3,756,359 77%
KOTA 4,774,974 6,999,313 147%
UDAIPUR 4,654,699 5,992,051 129%
DEHRADUN 4,511,028 8,484,113 188%
CHANDIGARH 4,488,425 9,949,121 222%
GWALIOR 4,134,317 5,292,219 128%
BILASPUR 4,009,418 4,782,046 119%
GUWAHATI 3,951,046 7,976,177 202%
MADRAS 3,824,934 12,245,493 320%
SILIGURI 3,337,330 7,079,217 212%
AMRITSAR 3,244,747 7,408,231 228%
ALIGARH 3,231,192 4,472,135 138%
BHILAI 3,210,319 3,862,293 120%
RANCHI 3,181,463 8,281,661 260%
JALANDHAR 3,138,976 7,590,042 242%
KOLHAPUR 3,126,130 3,502,467 112%
GANDHINAGAR 3,040,352 2,557,773 84%
MEERUT 3,038,861 9,227,640 304%
NADIAD 2,987,331 1,474,400 49%
BHARUCH 2,946,587 2,773,445 94%
GORAKHPUR 2,881,602 5,023,108 174%
BAREILLY 2,832,058 4,144,553 146%
GANDHIDHAM 2,780,431 2,545,866 92%
MOHALI 2,748,844 6,821,830 248%
AMRAVATI 2,743,900 2,885,857 105%
BHILWARA 2,734,425 2,350,471 86%
PATNA 2,701,709 5,219,565 193%
JALGAON 2,681,741 2,091,070 78%
LATUR 2,567,643 2,206,523 86%
SANGLI 2,432,818 2,290,191 94%
MORADABAD 2,370,620 4,209,170 178%
UJJAIN 2,362,994 2,329,713 99%
JAMMU 2,354,108 4,777,427 203%
HUBLI 2,337,094 3,373,260 144%
PANIPAT 2,259,324 3,868,211 171%
BELGAUM 2,182,217 3,047,771 140%
RATLAM 2,120,384 1,645,926 78%
VALSAD 2,108,198 1,594,571 76%
NAVSARI 2,098,476 1,763,266 84%
ANAND 2,079,873 1,375,891 66%
ROHTAK 2,034,865 2,950,571 145%
AKOLA 1,900,169 2,392,826 126%
BIKANER 1,857,389 2,062,067 111%
MATHURA 1,829,913 1,785,618 98%
NANDED 1,804,323 1,727,611 96%
MYSORE 1,798,005 4,143,554 230%
MANGALORE 1,793,051 3,887,939 217%
JHANSI 1,782,090 2,470,789 139%
ZIRAKPUR 1,731,778 3,859,869 223%
GULBARGA 1,652,391 2,257,743 137%
CHANDRAPUR 1,617,968 1,678,903 104%
SAHARANPUR 1,583,840 3,240,177 205%
SONEPAT 1,536,475 2,913,218 190%
REWARI 1,532,162 2,814,219 184%
VARANASI 1,521,664 2,721,076 179%
HARDWAR 1,495,247 2,794,938 187%
PALANPUR 1,486,687 823,326 55%
BARDOLI 1,465,678 1,063,793 73%
MALEGAON 1,417,959 1,090,073 77%
BHIWADI 1,381,784 2,621,544 190%
BHATINDA 1,332,855 3,036,963 228%
BARAMATI 1,319,700 1,213,802 92%
DHANBAD 1,305,209 3,882,355 297%
NANDURBAR 1,289,268 716,902 56%
SIKAR 1,273,813 1,559,311 122%
HALDWANI 1,259,148 1,944,050 154%
MUZAFFARNAGAR 1,227,380 2,412,814 197%
PATIALA 1,226,230 2,300,655 188%
BOKARO 1,225,853 2,997,938 245%
PANCHKULA 1,204,921 2,534,263 210%
MUZAFFARPUR 1,154,981 2,705,672 234%
PATAN 1,151,496 577,099 50%
ICHALKARANJI 1,137,395 1,101,025 97%
AHMEDNAGAR 1,130,587 1,508,189 133%
VISAKHAPATNAM 1,126,532 3,032,819 269%
NEEMUCH 1,108,685 902,266 81%
PATHANKOT 1,078,597 1,866,015 173%
ADIPUR 1,063,204 645,126 61%
KARNAL 1,041,189 2,106,134 202%
CUTTACK 1,024,303 3,658,057 357%
HAJIPUR 1,021,232 2,652,851 260%
KALOL 981,741 387,971 40%
BAHADURGARH 965,023 1,770,716 183%
VAPI 944,128 786,652 83%
ROORKEE 918,035 2,215,233 241%
DHULE 900,893 382,908 43%
BIJNORE 894,900 1,872,227 209%
SOLAPUR 890,025 704,572 79%
CHHINDWARA 889,778 878,247 99%
NATHDWARA 851,142 0%
KURUKSHETRA 843,575 1,766,090 209%
HISSAR 837,357 1,450,067 173%
COIMBATORE 833,729 2,127,811 255%
YAMUNA NAGAR 820,583 1,345,809 164%
BANSWARA 797,377 568,571 71%
AMBALA 793,992 1,624,603 205%
VIJAYAWADA 788,766 1,711,334 217%
KHANDWA 762,371 689,775 90%
DARJEELING 754,435 747,809 99%
KUNDLI 738,756 1,880,065 254%
SRI GANGANAGAR 704,614 1,083,179 154%
SATNA 699,209 799,072 114%
SEHORE 692,477 628,555 91%
SITAPUR 669,866 1,238,346 185%
KOCHI 668,449 1,790,591 268%
RAEBARELI 640,468 915,323 143%
RAIGARH 604,937 789,364 130%
KHANNA 589,130 1,198,378 203%
KISHANGARH 571,934 217,095 38%
MIRZAPUR 571,757 641,910 112%
KASHIPUR 562,701 1,250,562 222%
JORHAT 524,357 1,037,286 198%
BHANDARA 502,377 389,643 78%
REWA 494,551 508,987 103%
DAVANGERE 488,569 1,192,252 244%
BALAGHAT 463,557 485,360 105%
MANDSAUR 438,450 348,924 80%
NAGDA 436,881 256,809 59%
ABOHAR 384,694 496,783 129%
RUDRAPUR 362,967 714,478 197%
PHALTAN 352,536 282,130 80%
SHIMLA 345,519 634,156 184%
MUSSOORIE 338,292 546,453 162%
HOSHIARPUR 335,316 727,014 217%
RAMPUR 333,712 0%
WARDHA 292,781 308,627 105%
DURG 280,698 276,872 99%
SULTANPUR 262,655 712,940 271%
WARANGAL 258,905 400,752 155%
RAMNAGAR 255,221 288,204 113%
UDGIR 247,581 162,479 66%
KARIMNAGAR 234,111 822,146 351%
KURNOOL 232,217 826,962 356%
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM 226,826 1,600,955 706%
SELU 218,904 183,099 84%
GUNTUR 208,678 388,896 186%
MADURAI 202,997 389,780 192%
MUKTSAR 190,836 423,719 222%
LONAVALA 190,462 169,981 89%
BEED 160,565 179,537 112%
KAKINADA 158,787 537,450 338%
DHURI 150,994 401,701 266%
ALMORA 135,649 237,697 175%
PONDICHERRY 127,749 330,455 259%
TANDA 103,770 195,814 189%
BARABANKI 88,551 172,513 195%
VIZIANAGARAM 81,452 231,088 284%
ONGOLE 63,587 0%
ANGAMALY 53,853 177,628 330%
NAWANSHAHR 47,394 100,769 213%
KARIYAD 32,425 179,716 554%
THALASSERY 23,779 147,085 619%
KOLLAM 22,060 144,820 656%
MUVATTUPUZHA 13,684 186,059 1360%
KARUNAGAPALLY 12,319 176,364 1432%
KODUNGALLUR 7,687 239,760 3119%

This entry was posted on November 11, 2019 at 3:40 PM and is filed under the good. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

30 Responses to “JayShah Box Office Column (rebooted) – HF4 vs War collections”

  1. JC Says:
    November 11, 2019 at 5:57 PM

    Interesting stuff. Although I have read somewhere that even the data from the reported centres can be incomplete.

    Like

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  2. munna Says:
    November 11, 2019 at 6:37 PM

    War released in 4000 screens and HF4 around 3500.

    I think there is some issue with FI data in writing…
    For day 3-9 it shouldn’t be 138 crore reported center..but rather around ~93 crore reported…

    138 crore is reported out of 235…85 reported for 134….

    Hf 235* (85 / 138) * (7/ 8) = 126…

    ps – 7/8 is screen ratio

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    • jayshah Says:
      November 11, 2019 at 7:29 PM

      Yes I have corrected, FI data a little confusing for War as I didn’t realise the second set already included 1st set.

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      • munna Says:
        November 11, 2019 at 8:19 PM

        Thanks! I hope FI keeps giving data on constant basis.

        I am not sure if this yield better result….around 700-800 big centers are reported . Now unreported centers should follow same pattern ..so in this case 85 + (3500-750) / (4000 – 800 (I don’t remember first week screen reported count)) * unreported of War * Ratio of earnings of reported centers.

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        • jayshah Says:
          November 12, 2019 at 9:32 AM

          They seem to be BUT they do seem to convert the older data (say 2 months ago) into comments and graphs. So literally you got to be on it!

          Like

        • munna Says:
          November 12, 2019 at 11:16 AM

          I took PDF printout of some pages (In MAC, On print dialog you get save as PDF on bottom left corner; Windows you need one of the free PDF print driver).

          It seems they report 700+ most of the times. In these cases it is 60% of collection. I guess other are smaller centers and they don’t add to collection at same pace.

          Like

  3. Naveen Says:
    November 11, 2019 at 8:15 PM

    Good work Jay.
    After this analysis, the brouhaha over HF4 is exposed.
    This definitely looks less controversial than what it was made out to be.

    One can say actual may be less etc. but the bigger story is that sufficient payment was given to blue ticked twitterattis. Question is who paid? Who benefits from keeping Akshay’s hit lesser?

    The star who feels his No 1 is in threat because the way Akshay has outsmarted, outnumbered and worked hard to get it.

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    • munna Says:
      November 11, 2019 at 8:25 PM

      I think there is marginal over reporting. Typically BOI is on lower side of any reported numbers and in this case they are highest. I guess that coupled with some negativity towards Akshay have resulted in all the noise. The movie has sustained well after initial negative reports. Having said that it is not a very big hit and below FI commentary is very apt.

      https://filminformation.com/you-asked-it/what-is-this-brouhaha-about-incorrect-box-office-figures-doled-out-by-the-producers-of-housefull-4/

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    • jayshah Says:
      November 12, 2019 at 2:45 AM

      I agree with the fact that this is a win for HF4 to do well despite incredible negativity. It is still likely to be inflated. Pure numbers tend not to lie. You could say my unknown of X centres could get me to addatoday numbers but just as likely it could be Kadel. Only more simulated comparisons will reduce the range. It might be 120Cr – 135Cr now as a range. I would pretty much rule out addatoday, Kadel and Jaiswal here. BH looks sensible.

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      • Shivaay Says:
        November 12, 2019 at 3:14 AM

        Did you get all this data from FI? Also, why pit up HF4 against War instead of reporting individually? We all knew Kadel & Jaiswal were bull shitting, the real deal was BH vs BOI numbers for HF4.

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        • jayshah Says:
          November 12, 2019 at 3:41 AM

          All from FI.
          I had little choice but to compare against War (the assumption being War collections are at least transparent and close to reality). I would in future cross validate against similar size release- say Dabangg 3 and more films thus arriving at a range for HF4 first week. Mission Mangal and Kabir Singh raw data is no longer available so War was only reasonable choice. Bala is 3000 screen release so could be an option. But I’d rather compare Bala with Dream Girl and Chichhore as they are similar releases aimed at similar target audience. I guess you could do HF4 independently but I’d rather cross validate a number of movies to get a solid range. But I can always get HF4 week 2 collections by comparison with week 1.

          Like

        • Shivaay Says:
          November 12, 2019 at 3:50 AM

          A War Hindi version vs HF4 would be more apt as the Telugu & Tamil formats of War have nothing to do with the Hindi market. In the Hindi formats, both the films have released in 3900 screens. Hindi movies that get dubbed in regional languages specifically release in theaters in the interiors which traditionally do not screen Hindi films. The inverse is true for films like Saaho & 2.0, just that these films being distributed & marketed by opportunists like Dharma & Excel have made sure they make it huge across urban & mass sectors of the Hindi belt with 4000+ screen count as compared to dubbed versions of Hindi films which hardly get 150 screens in the Nizam/TN interiors.

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        • munna Says:
          November 12, 2019 at 4:10 AM

          https://www.hindustantimes.com/bollywood/housefull-4-box-office-predictions-akshay-kumar-film-expected-to-earn-rs-100-cr-in-first-few-days-made-in-china-and-saand-ki-aankh-to-fare-well/story-778gLL5Xmh61KPNdSu5s7O.html

          Like

        • munna Says:
          November 12, 2019 at 4:25 AM

          Like

        • jayshah Says:
          November 12, 2019 at 4:13 AM

          I haven’t checked if that split exists.

          Like

      • Krish Says:
        November 12, 2019 at 6:15 AM

        If i read the numbers correctly, Just going by Bengal numbers you can see why Kadel Rohit were going so low. War is more than 250% higher than HF4 and they might have been extrapolating.

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        Reply
  4. Satyam Says:
    November 11, 2019 at 9:53 PM

    Wow, I truly celebrate the return of your column Jay! Great going!

    Like

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  5. An Jo Says:
    November 12, 2019 at 12:07 AM

    Did it bother you to see ‘Fake Housefull 4 Numbers’ trend on Twitter? Producer Ronnie Screwvala called for authenticity in terms of box office collections. Did you feel your credibility is at stake?

    No. I am not the one giving out the figures.

    I was just reading an article where Inox theatres said how well the film fared.

    Now they won’t lie; they are not my relatives.

    The CEOs of PVR and Cinepolis have spoken about it. They will not lie.

    Did it upset you?

    Do I look upset to you?

    But this confusion arises when you see different figures coming in from different trade analysts, and then the film’s publicist sends a totally figure altogether.

    Fox Star has very big credibility. It is a corporate which runs from Los Angeles.

    It is not possible for them to fudge figures.

    We should use our brains about that.

    It is a corporate called Fox-Disney. They don’t get bothered by these small things.

    They make films worth millions and millions of dollars. Fudging a few crores doesn’t make much difference.

    So let’s talk sense.

    They (Fox Star Studios) are writing on their own social media handle, and they have to report to everyone.

    Nobody is going to lie about figures.

    https://www.rediff.com/movies/report/nobody-is-going-to-lie-about-box-office-figures/20191105.htm

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  6. Krish Says:
    November 12, 2019 at 5:24 AM

    Jay, Wow thats a great return of your analysis. I was a big fan of it in NG days. Hope to see more of the same here 🙂

    Like

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  7. Marcus Says:
    November 12, 2019 at 9:03 AM

    Jay – Good one here. Whats your number for week 2 for HF4?

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  8. thakursingh Says:
    November 13, 2019 at 4:29 AM

    Great to see this, Jay! Thank you

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  9. ANSHUL KUMAR Says:
    November 15, 2019 at 7:14 AM

    Great Jay for giving information.

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