JayShah Box Office Column (rebooted) – HF4 vs War collections
Assumptions
- Using Film Information data
- Assumes trend in reported centres is correlated with unreported centres (fair assumption considering huge # of centres reported)
- The collections of estimated movie (A) are = Screen Ratio * CollectionRatio * reported total of comparative movie’s collections (B)
- Collection Ratio = Total reported collections of estimated movie (A) / Total reported collections of comparative movie on like for like reported centres (B)
- Further comparison will be done when more movies are available i.e. Dabangg 3
HF4 | *War (9 day) | |||
Week 1 Like for like centres | 854,743,777 | 1,387,311,394 | ||
# centres | ratio | |||
184 | 62% | |||
Screens | 3500 | 4000 | ||
Screen ratio | 88% | |||
Film Information | ||||
Reported Collections | 86 | 139 | ||
Unreported Collections | 49 | 51 | ||
Total Collections | 134 | 238 | ||
Ratio Reported/Unreported | 64% | 59% | ||
Jayshah Est | 128 | Screen Ratio * Collection Ratio * 238 | ||
Kadel | 115 | |||
Jaiswal | 115 | |||
BOI | 136 | |||
Komal | 134 | |||
Bollywood Hungama | 129 | |||
Addatoday | 141 | |||
Average excluding jayshah | 128 |
My estimate is at 128CR roughly the average all other sources combined. Based on this Bollywood Hungama’s estimate is the best overall suggesting that Kadel/Jaiswal chalked off crores and BOI/Komal added some.
There are 184 centres in total.
Examples of territory and centre comparison below
Major Territory | Sum of HF4 | Sum of War | Ratio |
BENGAL | 49,189,620 | 141,673,397 | 288% |
BOMBAY CITY-SUBURBS | 163,599,847 | 213,770,716 | 131% |
C.I. | 32,269,884 | 43,504,540 | 135% |
C.P. BERAR | 38,527,866 | 43,490,335 | 113% |
DELHI CITY-SUBURBS | 70,359,095 | 135,016,194 | 192% |
EAST PUNJAB | 67,147,960 | 142,118,041 | 212% |
GOA | 7,391,382 | 10,734,585 | 145% |
GUJARAT | 91,762,281 | 86,781,665 | 95% |
KARNATAKA | 4,519,311 | 6,421,031 | 142% |
MAHARASHTRA | 57,217,780 | 81,788,199 | 143% |
RAJASTHAN | 66,377,796 | 80,857,965 | 122% |
SAURASHTRA | 15,467,154 | 12,556,927 | 81% |
SOUTH | 71,297,712 | 160,747,339 | 225% |
U.P. | 120,864,530 | 227,850,460 | 189% |
Grand Total | 855,992,218 | 1,387,311,394 | 162% |
Centre | HF4 | War | Ratio |
BOMBAY | 97,067,404 | 136,179,973 | 140% |
DELHI | 70,359,095 | 135,016,194 | 192% |
THANE | 66,341,981 | 77,420,762 | 117% |
PUNE | 38,046,825 | 62,169,353 | 163% |
JAIPUR | 35,046,346 | 45,736,224 | 131% |
AHMEDABAD | 29,349,457 | 39,984,779 | 136% |
BANGALORE | 28,554,743 | 70,658,498 | 247% |
SURAT | 26,881,037 | 20,178,049 | 75% |
CALCUTTA | 23,683,867 | 80,194,048 | 339% |
LUCKNOW | 22,128,357 | 40,276,914 | 182% |
NOIDA | 18,276,654 | 43,856,253 | 240% |
GHAZIABAD | 17,507,967 | 36,594,668 | 209% |
HYDERABAD | 17,007,517 | 39,798,155 | 234% |
GURGAON | 16,086,554 | 38,301,630 | 238% |
BARODA | 14,241,240 | 11,440,650 | 80% |
KANPUR | 11,881,610 | 17,284,723 | 145% |
INDORE | 11,504,840 | 18,679,265 | 162% |
AGRA | 9,758,028 | 16,266,273 | 167% |
RAIPUR | 8,347,438 | 10,648,851 | 128% |
BHOPAL | 8,277,096 | 12,112,804 | 146% |
NAGPUR | 8,030,253 | 10,230,791 | 127% |
FARIDABAD | 7,871,508 | 14,134,562 | 180% |
GOA | 7,391,382 | 10,734,585 | 145% |
NASIK | 7,363,805 | 7,926,397 | 108% |
RAJKOT | 6,716,067 | 5,609,576 | 84% |
JODHPUR | 6,409,376 | 7,567,240 | 118% |
AURANGABAD | 5,800,894 | 6,661,985 | 115% |
ALLAHABAD | 5,712,497 | 9,835,562 | 172% |
BHUBANESHWAR | 5,323,835 | 15,240,761 | 286% |
AJMER | 5,319,923 | 4,100,899 | 77% |
LUDHIANA | 5,089,463 | 10,869,396 | 214% |
JAMNAGAR | 4,907,452 | 3,756,359 | 77% |
KOTA | 4,774,974 | 6,999,313 | 147% |
UDAIPUR | 4,654,699 | 5,992,051 | 129% |
DEHRADUN | 4,511,028 | 8,484,113 | 188% |
CHANDIGARH | 4,488,425 | 9,949,121 | 222% |
GWALIOR | 4,134,317 | 5,292,219 | 128% |
BILASPUR | 4,009,418 | 4,782,046 | 119% |
GUWAHATI | 3,951,046 | 7,976,177 | 202% |
MADRAS | 3,824,934 | 12,245,493 | 320% |
SILIGURI | 3,337,330 | 7,079,217 | 212% |
AMRITSAR | 3,244,747 | 7,408,231 | 228% |
ALIGARH | 3,231,192 | 4,472,135 | 138% |
BHILAI | 3,210,319 | 3,862,293 | 120% |
RANCHI | 3,181,463 | 8,281,661 | 260% |
JALANDHAR | 3,138,976 | 7,590,042 | 242% |
KOLHAPUR | 3,126,130 | 3,502,467 | 112% |
GANDHINAGAR | 3,040,352 | 2,557,773 | 84% |
MEERUT | 3,038,861 | 9,227,640 | 304% |
NADIAD | 2,987,331 | 1,474,400 | 49% |
BHARUCH | 2,946,587 | 2,773,445 | 94% |
GORAKHPUR | 2,881,602 | 5,023,108 | 174% |
BAREILLY | 2,832,058 | 4,144,553 | 146% |
GANDHIDHAM | 2,780,431 | 2,545,866 | 92% |
MOHALI | 2,748,844 | 6,821,830 | 248% |
AMRAVATI | 2,743,900 | 2,885,857 | 105% |
BHILWARA | 2,734,425 | 2,350,471 | 86% |
PATNA | 2,701,709 | 5,219,565 | 193% |
JALGAON | 2,681,741 | 2,091,070 | 78% |
LATUR | 2,567,643 | 2,206,523 | 86% |
SANGLI | 2,432,818 | 2,290,191 | 94% |
MORADABAD | 2,370,620 | 4,209,170 | 178% |
UJJAIN | 2,362,994 | 2,329,713 | 99% |
JAMMU | 2,354,108 | 4,777,427 | 203% |
HUBLI | 2,337,094 | 3,373,260 | 144% |
PANIPAT | 2,259,324 | 3,868,211 | 171% |
BELGAUM | 2,182,217 | 3,047,771 | 140% |
RATLAM | 2,120,384 | 1,645,926 | 78% |
VALSAD | 2,108,198 | 1,594,571 | 76% |
NAVSARI | 2,098,476 | 1,763,266 | 84% |
ANAND | 2,079,873 | 1,375,891 | 66% |
ROHTAK | 2,034,865 | 2,950,571 | 145% |
AKOLA | 1,900,169 | 2,392,826 | 126% |
BIKANER | 1,857,389 | 2,062,067 | 111% |
MATHURA | 1,829,913 | 1,785,618 | 98% |
NANDED | 1,804,323 | 1,727,611 | 96% |
MYSORE | 1,798,005 | 4,143,554 | 230% |
MANGALORE | 1,793,051 | 3,887,939 | 217% |
JHANSI | 1,782,090 | 2,470,789 | 139% |
ZIRAKPUR | 1,731,778 | 3,859,869 | 223% |
GULBARGA | 1,652,391 | 2,257,743 | 137% |
CHANDRAPUR | 1,617,968 | 1,678,903 | 104% |
SAHARANPUR | 1,583,840 | 3,240,177 | 205% |
SONEPAT | 1,536,475 | 2,913,218 | 190% |
REWARI | 1,532,162 | 2,814,219 | 184% |
VARANASI | 1,521,664 | 2,721,076 | 179% |
HARDWAR | 1,495,247 | 2,794,938 | 187% |
PALANPUR | 1,486,687 | 823,326 | 55% |
BARDOLI | 1,465,678 | 1,063,793 | 73% |
MALEGAON | 1,417,959 | 1,090,073 | 77% |
BHIWADI | 1,381,784 | 2,621,544 | 190% |
BHATINDA | 1,332,855 | 3,036,963 | 228% |
BARAMATI | 1,319,700 | 1,213,802 | 92% |
DHANBAD | 1,305,209 | 3,882,355 | 297% |
NANDURBAR | 1,289,268 | 716,902 | 56% |
SIKAR | 1,273,813 | 1,559,311 | 122% |
HALDWANI | 1,259,148 | 1,944,050 | 154% |
MUZAFFARNAGAR | 1,227,380 | 2,412,814 | 197% |
PATIALA | 1,226,230 | 2,300,655 | 188% |
BOKARO | 1,225,853 | 2,997,938 | 245% |
PANCHKULA | 1,204,921 | 2,534,263 | 210% |
MUZAFFARPUR | 1,154,981 | 2,705,672 | 234% |
PATAN | 1,151,496 | 577,099 | 50% |
ICHALKARANJI | 1,137,395 | 1,101,025 | 97% |
AHMEDNAGAR | 1,130,587 | 1,508,189 | 133% |
VISAKHAPATNAM | 1,126,532 | 3,032,819 | 269% |
NEEMUCH | 1,108,685 | 902,266 | 81% |
PATHANKOT | 1,078,597 | 1,866,015 | 173% |
ADIPUR | 1,063,204 | 645,126 | 61% |
KARNAL | 1,041,189 | 2,106,134 | 202% |
CUTTACK | 1,024,303 | 3,658,057 | 357% |
HAJIPUR | 1,021,232 | 2,652,851 | 260% |
KALOL | 981,741 | 387,971 | 40% |
BAHADURGARH | 965,023 | 1,770,716 | 183% |
VAPI | 944,128 | 786,652 | 83% |
ROORKEE | 918,035 | 2,215,233 | 241% |
DHULE | 900,893 | 382,908 | 43% |
BIJNORE | 894,900 | 1,872,227 | 209% |
SOLAPUR | 890,025 | 704,572 | 79% |
CHHINDWARA | 889,778 | 878,247 | 99% |
NATHDWARA | 851,142 | 0% | |
KURUKSHETRA | 843,575 | 1,766,090 | 209% |
HISSAR | 837,357 | 1,450,067 | 173% |
COIMBATORE | 833,729 | 2,127,811 | 255% |
YAMUNA NAGAR | 820,583 | 1,345,809 | 164% |
BANSWARA | 797,377 | 568,571 | 71% |
AMBALA | 793,992 | 1,624,603 | 205% |
VIJAYAWADA | 788,766 | 1,711,334 | 217% |
KHANDWA | 762,371 | 689,775 | 90% |
DARJEELING | 754,435 | 747,809 | 99% |
KUNDLI | 738,756 | 1,880,065 | 254% |
SRI GANGANAGAR | 704,614 | 1,083,179 | 154% |
SATNA | 699,209 | 799,072 | 114% |
SEHORE | 692,477 | 628,555 | 91% |
SITAPUR | 669,866 | 1,238,346 | 185% |
KOCHI | 668,449 | 1,790,591 | 268% |
RAEBARELI | 640,468 | 915,323 | 143% |
RAIGARH | 604,937 | 789,364 | 130% |
KHANNA | 589,130 | 1,198,378 | 203% |
KISHANGARH | 571,934 | 217,095 | 38% |
MIRZAPUR | 571,757 | 641,910 | 112% |
KASHIPUR | 562,701 | 1,250,562 | 222% |
JORHAT | 524,357 | 1,037,286 | 198% |
BHANDARA | 502,377 | 389,643 | 78% |
REWA | 494,551 | 508,987 | 103% |
DAVANGERE | 488,569 | 1,192,252 | 244% |
BALAGHAT | 463,557 | 485,360 | 105% |
MANDSAUR | 438,450 | 348,924 | 80% |
NAGDA | 436,881 | 256,809 | 59% |
ABOHAR | 384,694 | 496,783 | 129% |
RUDRAPUR | 362,967 | 714,478 | 197% |
PHALTAN | 352,536 | 282,130 | 80% |
SHIMLA | 345,519 | 634,156 | 184% |
MUSSOORIE | 338,292 | 546,453 | 162% |
HOSHIARPUR | 335,316 | 727,014 | 217% |
RAMPUR | 333,712 | 0% | |
WARDHA | 292,781 | 308,627 | 105% |
DURG | 280,698 | 276,872 | 99% |
SULTANPUR | 262,655 | 712,940 | 271% |
WARANGAL | 258,905 | 400,752 | 155% |
RAMNAGAR | 255,221 | 288,204 | 113% |
UDGIR | 247,581 | 162,479 | 66% |
KARIMNAGAR | 234,111 | 822,146 | 351% |
KURNOOL | 232,217 | 826,962 | 356% |
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM | 226,826 | 1,600,955 | 706% |
SELU | 218,904 | 183,099 | 84% |
GUNTUR | 208,678 | 388,896 | 186% |
MADURAI | 202,997 | 389,780 | 192% |
MUKTSAR | 190,836 | 423,719 | 222% |
LONAVALA | 190,462 | 169,981 | 89% |
BEED | 160,565 | 179,537 | 112% |
KAKINADA | 158,787 | 537,450 | 338% |
DHURI | 150,994 | 401,701 | 266% |
ALMORA | 135,649 | 237,697 | 175% |
PONDICHERRY | 127,749 | 330,455 | 259% |
TANDA | 103,770 | 195,814 | 189% |
BARABANKI | 88,551 | 172,513 | 195% |
VIZIANAGARAM | 81,452 | 231,088 | 284% |
ONGOLE | 63,587 | 0% | |
ANGAMALY | 53,853 | 177,628 | 330% |
NAWANSHAHR | 47,394 | 100,769 | 213% |
KARIYAD | 32,425 | 179,716 | 554% |
THALASSERY | 23,779 | 147,085 | 619% |
KOLLAM | 22,060 | 144,820 | 656% |
MUVATTUPUZHA | 13,684 | 186,059 | 1360% |
KARUNAGAPALLY | 12,319 | 176,364 | 1432% |
KODUNGALLUR | 7,687 | 239,760 | 3119% |
November 11, 2019 at 5:57 PM
Interesting stuff. Although I have read somewhere that even the data from the reported centres can be incomplete.
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November 11, 2019 at 7:30 PM
Yes – you saw the poorer version, I’ve updated after correction. 1st week estimate of mine is more like a mid point of all data now.
I get 128Cr.
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November 11, 2019 at 6:37 PM
War released in 4000 screens and HF4 around 3500.
I think there is some issue with FI data in writing…
For day 3-9 it shouldn’t be 138 crore reported center..but rather around ~93 crore reported…
138 crore is reported out of 235…85 reported for 134….
Hf 235* (85 / 138) * (7/ 8) = 126…
ps – 7/8 is screen ratio
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November 11, 2019 at 7:29 PM
Yes I have corrected, FI data a little confusing for War as I didn’t realise the second set already included 1st set.
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November 11, 2019 at 8:19 PM
Thanks! I hope FI keeps giving data on constant basis.
I am not sure if this yield better result….around 700-800 big centers are reported . Now unreported centers should follow same pattern ..so in this case 85 + (3500-750) / (4000 – 800 (I don’t remember first week screen reported count)) * unreported of War * Ratio of earnings of reported centers.
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November 12, 2019 at 9:32 AM
They seem to be BUT they do seem to convert the older data (say 2 months ago) into comments and graphs. So literally you got to be on it!
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November 12, 2019 at 11:16 AM
I took PDF printout of some pages (In MAC, On print dialog you get save as PDF on bottom left corner; Windows you need one of the free PDF print driver).
It seems they report 700+ most of the times. In these cases it is 60% of collection. I guess other are smaller centers and they don’t add to collection at same pace.
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November 11, 2019 at 8:15 PM
Good work Jay.
After this analysis, the brouhaha over HF4 is exposed.
This definitely looks less controversial than what it was made out to be.
One can say actual may be less etc. but the bigger story is that sufficient payment was given to blue ticked twitterattis. Question is who paid? Who benefits from keeping Akshay’s hit lesser?
The star who feels his No 1 is in threat because the way Akshay has outsmarted, outnumbered and worked hard to get it.
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November 11, 2019 at 8:25 PM
I think there is marginal over reporting. Typically BOI is on lower side of any reported numbers and in this case they are highest. I guess that coupled with some negativity towards Akshay have resulted in all the noise. The movie has sustained well after initial negative reports. Having said that it is not a very big hit and below FI commentary is very apt.
https://filminformation.com/you-asked-it/what-is-this-brouhaha-about-incorrect-box-office-figures-doled-out-by-the-producers-of-housefull-4/
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November 12, 2019 at 2:45 AM
I agree with the fact that this is a win for HF4 to do well despite incredible negativity. It is still likely to be inflated. Pure numbers tend not to lie. You could say my unknown of X centres could get me to addatoday numbers but just as likely it could be Kadel. Only more simulated comparisons will reduce the range. It might be 120Cr – 135Cr now as a range. I would pretty much rule out addatoday, Kadel and Jaiswal here. BH looks sensible.
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November 12, 2019 at 3:14 AM
Did you get all this data from FI? Also, why pit up HF4 against War instead of reporting individually? We all knew Kadel & Jaiswal were bull shitting, the real deal was BH vs BOI numbers for HF4.
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November 12, 2019 at 3:41 AM
All from FI.
I had little choice but to compare against War (the assumption being War collections are at least transparent and close to reality). I would in future cross validate against similar size release- say Dabangg 3 and more films thus arriving at a range for HF4 first week. Mission Mangal and Kabir Singh raw data is no longer available so War was only reasonable choice. Bala is 3000 screen release so could be an option. But I’d rather compare Bala with Dream Girl and Chichhore as they are similar releases aimed at similar target audience. I guess you could do HF4 independently but I’d rather cross validate a number of movies to get a solid range. But I can always get HF4 week 2 collections by comparison with week 1.
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November 12, 2019 at 3:50 AM
A War Hindi version vs HF4 would be more apt as the Telugu & Tamil formats of War have nothing to do with the Hindi market. In the Hindi formats, both the films have released in 3900 screens. Hindi movies that get dubbed in regional languages specifically release in theaters in the interiors which traditionally do not screen Hindi films. The inverse is true for films like Saaho & 2.0, just that these films being distributed & marketed by opportunists like Dharma & Excel have made sure they make it huge across urban & mass sectors of the Hindi belt with 4000+ screen count as compared to dubbed versions of Hindi films which hardly get 150 screens in the Nizam/TN interiors.
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November 12, 2019 at 4:10 AM
https://www.hindustantimes.com/bollywood/housefull-4-box-office-predictions-akshay-kumar-film-expected-to-earn-rs-100-cr-in-first-few-days-made-in-china-and-saand-ki-aankh-to-fare-well/story-778gLL5Xmh61KPNdSu5s7O.html
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November 12, 2019 at 4:25 AM
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November 12, 2019 at 4:13 AM
I haven’t checked if that split exists.
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November 12, 2019 at 6:15 AM
If i read the numbers correctly, Just going by Bengal numbers you can see why Kadel Rohit were going so low. War is more than 250% higher than HF4 and they might have been extrapolating.
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November 12, 2019 at 6:21 AM
That’s correct but then they are dumber than I expected
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November 11, 2019 at 9:53 PM
Wow, I truly celebrate the return of your column Jay! Great going!
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November 12, 2019 at 12:07 AM
Did it bother you to see ‘Fake Housefull 4 Numbers’ trend on Twitter? Producer Ronnie Screwvala called for authenticity in terms of box office collections. Did you feel your credibility is at stake?
No. I am not the one giving out the figures.
I was just reading an article where Inox theatres said how well the film fared.
Now they won’t lie; they are not my relatives.
The CEOs of PVR and Cinepolis have spoken about it. They will not lie.
Did it upset you?
Do I look upset to you?
But this confusion arises when you see different figures coming in from different trade analysts, and then the film’s publicist sends a totally figure altogether.
Fox Star has very big credibility. It is a corporate which runs from Los Angeles.
It is not possible for them to fudge figures.
We should use our brains about that.
It is a corporate called Fox-Disney. They don’t get bothered by these small things.
They make films worth millions and millions of dollars. Fudging a few crores doesn’t make much difference.
So let’s talk sense.
They (Fox Star Studios) are writing on their own social media handle, and they have to report to everyone.
Nobody is going to lie about figures.
https://www.rediff.com/movies/report/nobody-is-going-to-lie-about-box-office-figures/20191105.htm
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November 12, 2019 at 1:52 AM
I believe Akshay Kumar said this. Anyone connected with any movie would say same.
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November 12, 2019 at 5:24 AM
Jay, Wow thats a great return of your analysis. I was a big fan of it in NG days. Hope to see more of the same here 🙂
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November 12, 2019 at 6:03 AM
Let’s hope, time dependant. You can see the Noida numbers here.
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November 12, 2019 at 11:20 AM
Gujarat centers for HF4 have done phenomenally well compared to War other centers.
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November 12, 2019 at 11:43 AM
My grandparents are rolling round in their graves at the state of Gujarat.
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November 12, 2019 at 9:03 AM
Jay – Good one here. Whats your number for week 2 for HF4?
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November 12, 2019 at 9:08 AM
Not yet computed. I’m catching up!
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November 12, 2019 at 11:32 AM
I think if you do week2, you will find inflation of number easily 🙂
You just cannot get Second Week – 48,07,00,000 from this
Week One – 1,35,86,00,000
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November 13, 2019 at 4:29 AM
Great to see this, Jay! Thank you
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November 15, 2019 at 7:14 AM
Great Jay for giving information.
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