JayShah’s Saturday Box Office Column – 99 performing decently…

Note all numbers are from Trade Guide

Reporting Methodology

1) New films most of the time where possible will be benchmarked against other films ‘in the same range’. The gross used for the older films will be one’s I have computed in the past
2) Films currently playing – I will always do some trending analysis. This is always against the ‘week before’
3) To compute subsequent week grosses I will always benchmark against ‘the first week’. Before it was always the preceding week, but Week 1 is always the best base because it gives maximum centres to use
4) Going forward I will show ONE example in FULL and show the results of the remaining scenarios

New Releases

Detective Naani

Detective Naani, a whodunit mystery directed by debutant Romilla Mukherjee and starring Ava Mukherjee had a poor first week showing. Opening poorly and carrying weak reviews, the film mustered up only 0.4-0.5Cr at the box office.

Past Releases

99

99 had a good second week following on from its promising first week. Considering the multiplex strike, 99 has done well so far and can be counted as decent performer.

99 Week 2 vs 99 Week 1
49% Mumbai means 99 fell by 49% in Mumbai in Week 2

Mumbai 49%
Ahmedabad 36%
Gandhinagar 16%
Himmatnagar -13%
Bharuch 24%
Jamnagar 3%
Rajkot 9%
Nasik 39%
Pune 33%
Goa 18%
Delhi 44%
Noida 21%
Lucknow 35%
Faridabad 24%
Ghaziabad 18%
Gurgaon -689%
Gorakhpur 7%
Kolkatta -347%
Guwahati 47%
Nagpur 34%
Raipur -54%
Indore 43%
Jaipur 61%
Kota 18%
Hyderabad 15%
Bangalore -18%
Burdwan 90%

Trending
Week 2 drop = 38%
Most centres held very steady especially the North and South centres.

The 99 Week 1 total for the above centres = 1.91Cr
The 99 Week 2 total for the above centres = 1.19Cr (Bangalore, Raipur, Kolkatta and Gurgaon)

This means that 99’s Week 2 total is 62% of 99’s Week 1 total (1.19/1.91 = 62%)

Using my own 99 Week 1 Total of 5.4-5.6Cr, 99’s Week 2 Total = 62% * (5.4-5.6) = 3.4-3.6Cr

99 2 Week Total = 5.4-5.6Cr(Week 1) + 3.4-3.5Cr(Week 2) = 8.8 – 9.1Cr

Verdict – Above Average

Considering the turbulent times the industry has faced in the first few months of the year, 99 is one of the brighter performers. The unpredictable tale about two men starring Kunal Khemu, Boman Irani and Soha Ali Khan has given the box office a much needed boost with decent two week collections and should go past 10Cr in the coming week especially if the multiplex strike comes to an end.

January 2009
Chandi Chowk to China : 24.5 – 26.2Cr (Disaster)
Raaz – The Mystery Continues : 22.5 – 23.8Cr (Below Average)
Slumdog Millionaire : 4.8 – 5.5Cr (Flop)
Luck By Chance : 16.3 – 17.9Cr (Flop)
Victory : 1.2 – 1.5Cr (Disaster)

February 2009
Dev D : 16.0 – 17.2Cr (Hit)
Billu : 22.7 – 24.1Cr (Flop)
Delhi 6 : 32.7 – 35.0Cr (Flop)
Kisse Pyaar Karoon : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Flop)
Siddharth – The Prisoner : 0.1 – 0.2Cr (Flop)

March 2009
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge : 7.5 – 8.1Cr (Flop)
13B : 7.4 – 8.2Cr (Flop)
Gulaal : 3.5 – 4.1Cr (Flop)
Jai Veeru : 1.5 – 2.0Cr (Flop)
Little Zizou : 1.1 – 1.2Cr (Average)
Aloo Chat : 4.0 – 4.7Cr (Flop)
Aa Dekhen Zara : 3.9 – 4.3Cr (Flop)
Ek – The Power of One : 4.3 – 4.7Cr (Flop)

April 2009
8×10 Tasveer : 11.5 – 12.5Cr (Flop)

May 2009
99 : 8.8 – 9.1Cr (Above Average)
Detective Naani : 0.4 – 0.5Cr (Poor Opening Week)